Mightier ‘Pen: Spelling Relief with Ks & MPH
TOWER GROVE — It would be tempting to begin any look at the St. Louis Cardinals’ bullpen and its search for additional power sources with the fact that the Cardinals relievers had the fewest strikeouts of any bullpen in the National League. Their 340 were the least in the majors by 21 behind Tampa Bay.
While that stat is telling, it’s not entirely revealing.
The Cardinals’ relievers also had to pitch the fewest innings of any bullpen. Their 437 innings were 20 fewer than the next closest relief corps — again, Tampa Bay. That would skew any total, from walks to hits to, yes, strikeouts. No, the way to introduce the topic while also capturing the nature of the Cardinals’ lesson from the postseason is to check their strikeouts per nine innings, their K/9. The Cardinals’ relievers had a K/9 of 7.00. That ranked 26th in the majors, and only Washington in to the NL had a lower one. No other playoff team ranked lower than 21, and no other NL team with a winning record ranked lower than 16. That was the Philadelphia Phillies who had a 7.63 K/9 and who had, oh, just a skosh of bullpen trouble in 2009.
But, they also have a pennant.
In this morning’s paper, the P-D’s position-by-position look at the Cardinals as they move from 2009 to 2010 continued with a snapshot of the bullpen, which is likely to return mostly intact for next season. GM John Mozeliak said his preference is not to borrow from the bullpen to feed to the rotation. That means the Cardinals would like to, if possible, keep Blake Hawksworth and Mitchell Boggs – two pitchers who have been groomed as starters — in the roles in which they finished the season. One of the main reasons, is because both add an element of improved power to the ‘pen, when rated by their fastball’s effectiveness and raw velocity, respectively.
Their improvement as relievers may be key to the bullpen improving, and making the leap from the kind of bullpen that succeed as a steady group in the regular season and one that can shorten games in October.
MPH has been a bit of a focus for the Cardinals in recent years, as they’ve looked to add more power arms to their system and, therefore, more powers to their upper-level bullpens, including the majors. In 2008, the Cardinals bragged about have 36 pitchers in the system who averaged 90-mph or better on their fastballs. The total was newsworthy because it had been much lower just a few years before. Recently, the Cardinals have seen an increase in pitchers who thrown 95 mph and above, and that is where they would like get some relievers to live.
As mentioned within the article linked above, a coach told me this season that the bullpen is about “throwing” not “pitching”. The inference being that a reliever’s short-burst usage puts an emphasis on stuff, not how the pitcher uses his stuff or sets up a hitter and a lineup, as say a starter would. The Cardinals saw in the National League Division Series what stuff does for a bullpen. The Dodgers had arguably the best bullpen in the league last season, and a big reason why was the sheer power that they could throw at opponents.
The indispensable Web site FanGraphs charts average velocity for pitchers and effectiveness of pitches. Compare the Cardinals’ corps of relievers with the Dodgers to see the difference. The first number is the average mph for the reliever’s fastball and the second is the fastball’s effectiveness (rated by wins above average). The tale of the tape:
CARDINALS
Franklin … 91.2 mph, 4.6w
Motte … 95.9 mph, minus-4.2w
McClellan … 91.4 mph, 2.6w
Hawksworth … 92.7 mph, 7.8w
Boggs … 92.9 mph, minus-7.9w
Miller … 87.0 mph, 0.7w
Reyes … 90.0 mph, minus-2.3w
Thompson … 87.4 mph, minus-1.0w
DODGERS
Broxton … 97.7 mph, 12.7w
Sherrill … 90.1 mph, 4.4w
Kuo … 94.2 mph, 5.6w
Belisario … 94.8 mph, 13.8w
Troncoso … 92.5 mph, 7.8w
Mota … 93.8 mph, 7.4w
Weaver … 89.8 mph, minus-9.8w
McDonald … 92.8 mph, 0.4w
The Cardinals’ reliever with the best velocity was Jason Motte at 95.9 mph, but he also had among the least-effective fastballs because of how often it was hit/put in play. The Dodgers’ sampling of relievers shows that they had three relievers average 94 mph or better with their fastball, and two of them — closer Jonathan Broxton and power-sinker Ronald Belisario – had an effectiveness that was much better than the Cardinals’ best (Hawksworth, in a late-season turn). The Dodgers had more power and they did better with it than the Cardinals. It’s not fair to lump the specialists like Trever Miller into the mix, because their game is based on pitches well beyond their fastball. But the overall tone of the bullpen is clear, and power does play, especially as Mozeliak agreed in the playoffs, when the weather is colder and the outs bigger.
The Cardinals did collect some power arms this past season. Chris Perez, the torchbearer for the group when he was drafted, averaged 94.1 mph as a Cardinal and Cleveland Indian this season, per FanGraphs. The briefly Cardinal reliever Blaine Boyer averaged 93.7 mph. Boggs, whose velocity popped later in the year and whose velocity put him on the playoff roster when he consistently hit 96+ (98 mph, said one official), and Motte are two strong arms returning. Righthander Eduardo Sanchez, as discussed in the Bird Land Community Top 21 poll going on right now, is another one rising in the ranks. He has both power and command, while Francisco Samuel has power (another 96+), but is working on his command.
The difference for the Cardinals is most stark at closer.
Ryan Franklin can throw something like 17 different pitches. OK, it’s really more like nine. As he moved into the closer role for the Cardinals, he did simplify his assortment, but he remained, at his core, a command and pitch-to-contact closer. That can be a gamble, because even a successful pitch-to-contact pitcher allows hitters to put the ball in play. And sometimes balls in play get by fielders … Ask, Joel Pineiro. This became even more apparent when Franklin struggled with his command late and was having to pitch around both base hits and walks. Free passes were his undoing.
Check out the closers with seven highest save totals in the National League, their average velocity (per FanGraphs) and the breakdown of their outs (from Bill James Online):
FRANKLIN, Stl … 38 saves … 1.92 ERA … avg fastball: 91.2 mph
singles: 36 … walks: 24 … K: 44 … Groundouts: 58 … Fly outs+Pop outs: 58
**
BROXTON, La … 36 saves … 2.61 ERA … avg fastball: 97.7 mph
singles: 35 … walks: 29 … K: 114 … GO: 61 … FO+PO: 40
**
BELL, Sd … 42 saves … 2.71 ERA … avg fastball: 93.7 mph
singles: 42 … walks: 24 … K: 78 … GO: 56 … FO+PO: 55
**
CORDERO, Cin … 39 saves … 2.16 ERA … avg fastball: 95.0 mph
singles: 47 … walks: 30 … K: 57 … GO: 60 … FO+PO: 63
**
WILSON, Sf … 38 saves … 2.74 ERA … avg fastball: 96.6 mph
singles: 45 … walks: 27 … K: 81 … GO: 59 … FO+PO: 57
**
HOFFMAN, Mil … 37 saves … 1.83 ERA … avg fastball: 85.5 mph
singles: 28 … walks: 14 … K: 48 … GO: 38 … FO+PO: 66
The breakdowns show that there are many ways to skin a ninth inning, what with Broxton having a fastball 10-mph faster than Trevor Hoffman and finishing the season with one fewer save and an ERA just about a run higher. As it is with the bullpen comparisons above, velocity isn’t much alone. It’s what relievers do with velocity that matters. That goes for whatever other “stuff”, i.e. curveball, slider, etc., you want to measure. What makes Hoffman so effective is obviously his changeup, and his ability to keep runners off base. It’s not the swing-and-miss pitch it used to be, but it still has its moments. Franklin followed a similar recipe during his All-Star first half. The ball was in play, but he kept runners off base.
Missing bats means missing baserunners and there are many ways for a closer/reliever to do that. Raw power is just a great equalizer. It certainly can be in the playoffs.
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THE POST-DISPATCH’s POSITION BY POSITION SEASON RECAP
Starting last week and continuing through this week, The Post-Dispatch baseball writers are touring the Cardinals’ roster to recap the 2009 season and take a look at what to expect in 2010. The above entry is a companion online element for the Bullpen article. Other articles in the series (schedule subject to change):
- First Base — Oct. 16, “Pujols’ Comments Surprise Cardinals”
- Second Base — Oct. 18, “Schumaker Settled In at Second” and online: “Schumaker vs. Kennedy vs. the Field”
- Shortstop — Oct. 19, “Given Chance Ryan Didn’t Come Up Short” and online: “Depth beyond Brendan Ryan”
- Third Base — Oct. 20, “Cards’ Options at Third Will Start with Freese”
- Catcher — Oct. 21, “Cardinals Ponder Molina’s Workload” and online: “Backup Plan: Who Could Catch On with the Cardinals”
- Starting Rotation — Thursday Rescheduled for Monday.
- Bullpen — Today, “Cardinals Stand Pat with Their Bullpen” and online: above.
- Outfield — Sunday
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Derrick Goold said he was going to Mizzou for capital-J journalism, but after growing up in the Time Zone Baseball Forgot he was really drawn to MU sitting between two major-league cities. Goold joined the Post-Dispatch in 2001 after working for The Times-Picayune and Rocky Mountain News, covering sports from LSU to NHL and every level of baseball in between. 
Motte has a good fast ball, but he is to predictable around the strike zone. Hitters sit back and get him measured…translate…hitters are to comfortable. Motte needs to bust them inside and put the fear of beanball on them. Throw some sliders on the inner part of the plate against RH hitters. Bust the LH hitters in at the hands with the fast ball. His control is more often than not a ball down the middle of the plate that hitters sit on to take him out of the yard.
4 of the Cardinal relievers, McClellan, Thompson, Boggs, and Hawksworth, were being geared to be starters in the minors and 2 just got their feet wet in the reliever role, 1 has 2 years of experience now, and Thompsons’ career may have made a turn for the worse this year. Motte over Perez, and Perez for a aging/injured DeRosa may rear its ugly head in 2010 as well.
So yes I would have been a bit gun shy to give them more innings and with rumors of staying the course makes 2010 scary if some don’t grow up fast or $$$ spent to add experience. The most glaring part of this past seasons pen was that Motte had the most appearances other than the lefty specialist. That was quite a load tossed on a rookie, has alot of the same similarities of McClellan first full season.
what about Ottavino? he dominated in shirt stints in wbc and spring i think and he looked good in the aaa game on espn. I have heard he can throw up to 97 as a starter…. so what would he be a a reliever. I think he could be a daniel bard or harder throwing phil hughes out of the pen. Certainly as good as chris perez. what do you think?
Jason Motte’s last 18 outings since Aug 14th, 16 innings, 18 K’s 2 er’s for an era of 1.13
Whatever happened to the relief pitcher that you could hand the 7th or 8th inning to and sit back, let them attack the strike zone, put up a line IP, K. and be done with the inning? I understand managers like to mix and match, but then half of your bullpen is made up of specialists and if your starting pitching doesn’t consistently go deep into games, the other half of the bullpen is made up of long relievers.
I applauded the Cardinals decision to bring up Memphis starters to use as long relievers this season as a necessity to save the rest of the bullpen for September & October. That should be an emergency plan though and not the status quo. The scariest bullpens in baseball are the ones where you know if the starter goes 6 or 7 good innings, you are in trouble because along with a great closer, they have one strikeout guy for the 8th and maybe even one strikeout guy for the 7th, and then a lefty specialist mixed in if needed.
I don’t want to sound like a whiner, but …. ahem ….. Sunday?????
Doesn’t McGwire’s looming return to the team as hitting coach mean that he must be planning some sort of interview or at least a statement to explain himself? Spring training will be a circus, probably regardless, at least for the first few days. But if he fails to address the questions everybody has, he’s going to be an untenable distraction. I hope the Post-Dispatch gets the big interview. But we’ll see if he does 60 minutes, Larry King, Oprah, ESPN 60, or what. I’d say he should go on Tyra, because she’ll end up mostly talking about herself. That would be a brilliant public relations, sleight-of-hand move.