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10.14.2009 11:04 am

Revisiting Past Community Top 30, Positioning for Present

St. Louis Post-Dispatch
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TOWER GROVE — It started as a cumbersome, at-times chaotic, count-by-hand poll posted in the Cardinals’ message board here at StlToday.com. Through four years and four attempts to refine the process it has improved to an at-times cumbersome and slightly less chaotic poll based here at Bird Land.

But, hey, we no longer have to count it by hand. Viva technology.

With the St. Louis Cardinals’ season over with the sudden sweep by the Los Angeles Dodgers, it is time to fill some space with the annual Bird Land Community Top … well, now here’s the first problem. Top what? Top 30 doesn’t seem right. The Cardinals traded away or lost via the Rule 5 draft a total of eight former or potential Top 30 candidates. That includes Luke Gregerson, Brett Wallace, Luis Perdomo, Jess Todd, Clayton Mortensen and so on. Six of the top 12 from last year’s Community Top 30 are either no longer eligible for the prospect tag or they have been traded to another organization (or both).

A complete rewrite is in order — and it starts at the top. For the first time in Comm Top Prospects polling there won’t be a No. 1 by acclimation. Colby Rasmus is no longer eligible. Wallace is no longer around. The poll for No. 1 will be up Thursday.

But first, to gear-up for the poll and to understand exactly what is left in the organization a tour of last year’s Community Top 30 Prospects who have been traded or prospects who have too much major-league service time to be eligible have been slashed out to give you a sense of how much work there is ahead. The members of last year’s Comm Top 30 — concluding entry is available here — who are still eligible have been designated by a quick helper: Stock Up, Stock Down or Stock Steady. The rankings are based on their spot in the Comm Top 30 as well as their place in the organizational depth chart. The up-down-steady relates not only to their performance from 2009 but also their standing on the organizational depth chart and in some cases comments from scouts and coaches from the season.

Here goes:

1. Colby Rasmus, OF … First-round bye. NO LONGER ELIGIBLE. Will return as the Cardinals starting center fielder for 2010 having spent the entire season in the majors. Campaign for rookie of the year, so strong in early June, faded toward the end. But he started all three playoff games and was team’s best October hitter.

2. Brett Wallace, 3B … 55 percent of 1,038 votes. TRADED TO OAKLAND.

3. Chris Perez, RHP … 47 percent of 737. TRADED TO CLEVELAND.

4. Bryan Anderson, C … 32 percent of 673. STOCK DOWN. An injury interrupted and eroded the season for this lefthanded-hitting catcher. He’s off to the Arizona Fall League to regain his standing, though concerns about his defense and the lack of developing power still stands.

5. David Freese, 3B … 20 percent of 675. STOCK STEADY. Recovered well from a foot injury to gain a foothold on the team’s depth chart. Seems poised for a major-league job next season, though it could be as an apprentice starter at third base. Played well in Triple-A playoffs.

6. Jason Motte, RHP … 42 percent of 1,017. NO LONGER ELIGIBLE.

7. Daryl Jones, OF … 28 percent of 968. STOCK STEADY. Going to be one of the more interesting cases on this year’s prospect rankings. A four-star talent according to a few publications last season and a Futures Game participant, Jones was slowed by knee trouble this season. Speed is a big part of his game, and the knees are a concern. He won the organization’s Player of the Year award for 2008, and followed with a .279/.360/.378 line and is off to the AFL to recoup at-bats.

8. Jess Todd, RHP … 26 percent of 968. TRADED TO CLEVELAND.

9. Mitchell Boggs, RHP … 37 percent of 869. NO LONGER ELIGIBLE.

10. Jaime Garcia, LHP … 23 percent of 791. STOCK UP. His return from Tommy John surgery and his turn in the Triple-A playoffs asserted his place as the top starting pitcher prospect in the system. As the Cardinals open up one of the spots in their major-league rotation for an internal candidate, Garcia is the October favorite to fill the spot, though he’ll be challenged by righthanders with more big-league experience.

11. Niko Vasquez, SS … 26 percent of 281. STOCK DOWN. Has moved to third base (as expected) and didn’t have the offensive staying power to stick with a full-season club. He struck out 114 times in 457 at-bats and a .273 average in August only tidied-up his line to a .204/.288/.274.

12. Clayton Mortensen, RHP … 45 percent of 351. TRADED TO OAKLAND.

13. Pete Kozma, SS … 33 percent of 1,116. STOCK STEADY. Remains a polarizing prospect in the system, both for scouts covering the Cardinals and even folks within the Cardinals’ organization. This is through no fault of his own. He didn’t take himself in the first round. He finished the season in Double-A, had a hitting line of .231/.302/.323 … but opposing managers also voted him the best defensive shortstop in Texas League.

14. Allen Craig, INF … 35 percent of 340. STOCK UP. Is a candidate for the Player of the Year award — given by the organization — after hitting 26 home runs, driving in 83 runs and hitting .322/.374/.547. He moved around, looking for a position to fit his bat. That will continue in spring training.

15. Jon Jay, OF … 31 percent of 340. STOCK STEADY. Is off playing winter ball to enhance his chances of getting a crack at the fourth-outfielder spot come spring. The lefthanded-hitting Jay doesn’t profile with the power needed for his position (likely LF), but he did pull out of his early-season struggles to finish with a batting line of .281/.338/.394.

16. Adam Reifer, RHP … 29 percent of 299. STOCK UP. One of the power arms in the organization, and he’ll chart high on that alone. Is off at the AFL for the fall, and he’ll continue to climb as a closer-candidate. He had 50 strikeouts in 48 1/3 innings and had months where he wasn’t bitten by control issues and months where he was. As with the other power arms in the system there is that difference between raw velocity and strike velocity. Speed can K — but only with precision.

17. Tyler Greene, INF … 40 percent of 294. STOCK UP. Still eligible. Struggled at the plate during his big-league exposure this season. Seems poised to be a utility infielder for the club next season, with one caveat: Cardinals already have a righthanded backup infielder coming back in Julio Lugo.

18. Lance Lynn, RHP … 29 percent of 399. STOCK UP. Reinforced his rep as the durably, big-bodied, steady starter. Lynn, who throws a sinking fastball, pitched at three levels this past season, making 28 appearances and 25 starts. He finished at Class AA, where he went 11-4, 2.92 ERA with 98 Ks, 51 walks in 126 1/3 innings. He’ll crack the Class AAA rotation in 2010, and if the Cardinals are entering an age of Duncan-Farm System Glasnost, he could leave an impression in Jupiter.

19. P.J. Walters, RHP … 30 percent of 528. STOCK STEADY. Is going to factor into the discussion/competition for the spot open in the rotation. Walters remains a steadying presence on whatever rotation he’s a part of. Think Jeff Suppan, with perhaps a tad more velocity right now — but not as much as Suppan had at this point in his career. Walters went 8-10, 4.54 ERA for Memphis.

20. Adam Ottavino, RHP … 35 percent of 448. STOCK UP. Another first-round pick who tends to be a polarizing prospect. His mechanics have been toyed with, rebuilt, retrofitted, retooled, adjusted, modified and otherwise altered until … one wonders if next he’d be asked to try facing second and throwing blind. He went winless through the first third of the Class AAA season, but pitching coach Blaise Isley and others stepped in to rescue the talented-but-inconsistent starter. Ottavino went 7-12 overall with a 4.75 ERA in 27 starts at Triple-A. Some argue he was pushed up a level without accomplishing what he needed in Class AA. He improved as he pitched, though going 7-3 with a 4.61 ERA in July and August. Those two months he struck out 54 and walked 31 in 41 innings. One solid sign: Close your eyes to the walks and he allowed few hits than innings. There was a time when the organization produced only one starter that did that.

21. Fernando Salas, RHP … 56 percent of 185-vote runoff. STOCK DOWN. Injury (finger sprain) precipitated a return to Class AA for the breakout reliever from 2008. He never had an over-powering arm, but his command made him an effective reliever. He didn’t lose that: 24 strikeouts, 10 walks, 22 hits in 27 innings over 24 apps at Class AAA. Salas still has the stuff, but others (i.e. Pete Parise) have leapfrogged him in the role.

22. Nick Additon, LHP … 28 percent of 266. STOCK UP. Finished last season as a dark-horse candidate for the organization’s Pitcher of the Year award, both internally and over at Baseball America. A lefty with a good feel for his approach, he reached Class AA this past season and went 2-3 with a 3.19 ERA. But that includes his rocky start there. He went 2-2, 2.45 in August, and in his final seven starts (44 1/3 innings) with Springfield, the lefty had an ERA of 2.23.

23. Shane Robinson, OF … 29 percent of 348. STOCK STEADY. This was not the Shane traded to Oakland. This is Sugar Shane Robinson, the righthanded-hitting speedster outfielder who wore No. 33 during his brief time with the major-league club in 2009. All that outside talk of moving him to second has cooled since another outfielder was moved to second. Robinson’s game is speed, and he needs to be better at getting on base to make the most of it. His .238/.306/.351 line at Class AAA was disappointing.

24. Francisco Samuel, RHP … 25 percent of 310. STOCK STEADY. The very definition of the difference between raw velocity and strike velocity. Samuel has one of the better arms and a loose, fluid delivery, but he just doesn’t have command of his speed. He can throw in the upper-90s, but does he know where it’s going? In Springfield this past season, Samuel had 59 strikeouts, allowed 36 hits, and had a 5.66 ERA, but he also walked 46 batters in 47 2/3 innings pitched.

25. Roberto De La Cruz (or Pina), 3B … 34 percent of 234. STOCK STEADY. The big-ticket Caribbean signing before Wagner Mateo and now still the organization’s biggest-ticket signing, he didn’t emerge from the GCL Cardinals as hoped. There he hit .224/.267/.279. He had 59 strikeouts in 165 at-bats, and of his 37 hits only nine went for extra bases (all doubles). He’s a mountain of a young man, and his size caught eyes during spring training. It will be interesting to see how his game has grown with him this spring.

25. Tyler Herron, RHP … 41 percent of 343. RELEASED.

26. Richard Castillo, RHP … 22 percent of 275. STOCK UP. Born in 1989, the youngster burst into the system last year on a lark, and he solidified his standing this season as one of the youngest pitchers in the Florida State League. Keep in mind that league is played at pitcher-friendly parks — spring training facilities, really — when you read that he went 6-13, 3.87 in 29 games (26 starts) for High-A Palm Beach. He struck out 105 and walked 66 in 148 2/3 innings. He is back in Venezuela for the winter.

27. Deryk Hooker, RHP … 33 percent of 375. STOCK UNCERTAIN. A drug-related suspension spoiled the start to his season and might dent his spot in the prospect rankings. The raw performance, however, still intrigues, especially for a starter who just turned 20 this season. He went 1-6 with a 3.98 ERA. In 15 games (10 starts), he had 53 strikeouts and 23 walks in 61 innings.

29. Shaun Garceau, RHP … 42 percent of 475/27 percent of 230. STOCK DOWN. The righty, a cult favorite last season here on the Comm Top Prospect, spent most of the season on the suspended list and his status remains uncertain for 2010. Garceau was the ace of the Palm Beach staff in 2008, but the suspension muddied his 2009 after appearing in 11 games (four starts).

30. Tony Cruz, C … 30 percent of 310 votes. STOCK DOWN. Cruz’s intrigue was based on the idea that he would take a solid bat and become a steady glove behind the plate. He continues to do well as a catcher, but the bat didn’t stay as potent when he got to Double-A. He hit .220/.281/.366 for Springfield, and he had 10 home runs and 48 RBIs in 110 games. He hit .186 after the All-Star break. Could be he tired. Could be the league adjusted to him. Could be any number of things. If he hits, he ranks.

***

Doesn’t take a long look at the above list to know there will be a lot of new names to appear in the 2010 rankings. I’m working on the Baseball America top 30 right now as well and it could include at least 15 new names because of trades, releases, and performance. And here’s a telling challenge: It’s hard to identify 30.

One lesson from previous Community Top Prospect polls is that the lower in the poll we go the less voters there are. Combine that with the reality that the Cardinals’ prospects Nos. 20-30 or so could be interchangeable and it means we should adjust the Comm poll.

So.

This year’s Community Top Prospect Poll will be a Top 21. All of the spots will be open for polling, and we’ll go about one per weekday for several weeks. The final spot on the poll — No. 21 — won’t necessarily be the 21st prospect, per se, but instead will be a community sleeper pick. Could be a 2009 draft pick. Could be a member of the 2008 Comm Top 30 who slid out of the rankings. Could be anyone. Will explain more when we get there.

Tomorrow: Top prospect poll as the Comm Top 21 begins.

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19 comments

I hadn’t heard a Niko Vasquez position switch would be to third. I was thinking his bat (and career path) projected better at second.

Thanks for the rundown, Derrick. I like this kind of story above all else.

— Seals
11:41 am October 14th, 2009

Yup, you’re on it DG. Good stuff.

— Dave in Topeka, KS
12:06 pm October 14th, 2009

So what’s the deal with Nick Stavinoa…is he still around? He seemed to have quite a few clutch hits for us off the bench this year and we didn’t see him at all in September or October. Now he’s not on the list?

— ESM
12:44 pm October 14th, 2009

Stavinoha (and Mather) have had too many at bats in the majors to be considered prospects. Vazquez played a lot of third at Batavia, and will probably start at 3rd at Quad Cities now that Ahmady was suspended for 50 games for illegal substances.

— buckriggs
1:01 pm October 14th, 2009

Jones, Reifer, Samuel, De La Cruz, Castillo, and Kozma (slightly less) were all disappointments this season. To list any of them as stock up or even steady makes no sense.

You sound like a stock analyst who only gives positive recommendations because he’s afraid to lose his job.

— cariocacardinal
1:02 pm October 14th, 2009

I hadn’t heard about Garceau’s suspension. What was it for? And yes, I was one of the heads of the cult :-)

— JKoch
1:02 pm October 14th, 2009

Speaking of clutch, how about Hoffpauir?

— KYCardsGuy
1:07 pm October 14th, 2009

Sounds good DG! Had alot of fun the last time ’round, and looking forward to this one as well!

Also… no number 28? Or did I just miss something there?

— smashedatoms
1:07 pm October 14th, 2009

Cario,

I’m interested in hearing your opinions on those players. Keep in mind with the “stock” definitions that they are related to the rankings already in place. Jones didn’t have the season expected, but does that mean he’s out of the top 10? Probably not. Does he still rank in that No. 7 area? Sure. Hence, “steady”. What did you expect from De La Cruz? Has he really changed all that much? Did you get a whole lot of info from his turn in the GCL?

Offer up more than a list, so that we can have a discussion. Thanks,

dg
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— Derrick Goold
1:24 pm October 14th, 2009

DG-

No big thing, but if we could get some ages with these descriptions…could give everyone a better idea of what direction they’re headed in.

One name I say watch out for (who was drafted) is Virgil Hill. What I sawe of him reminds me of Alfonso Soriano….hopefully not in EVERY way though.

— SanDiegoBill
1:26 pm October 14th, 2009

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