TOWER GROVE — A year has passed but the conversation remains strikingly similar.

About 12 months ago, the Bird Land Community Top 30 reached No. 19 in its poll, and the discussion hinged around two righthanded starters: the recently drafted Lance Lynn and the rising changeup artist P.J. Walters. Lynn edged Walters in the voting for No. 18, and Walters then claimed a win at No. 19. Scroll forward to today and Lynn has surged to become a top-10 prospect, while Walters remains a candidate — and probably a favorite — to stick at No. 19. (For those of you who argue that these ledes influence the vote, consider Adam Reifer. I haven’t done much to influence his totals. And it surprises me he hasn’t been ranked yet.)

Even the last comment on the previous Comm Top 21 entry compared Lynn to Walters.

It’s not an unusual comparison. It’s one that I’ve heard before, from scouts and writers, alike.

Lynn was the higher draft pick, which continues to perplex me as a reason for ranking a prospect higher. Where a player was drafted (and how much he was paid as a bonus) does seem to have a lasting influence on that players ranking. Too much faith in initial scouting and not enough faith in actual production, if you ask me. But regardless Lynn has both: initial scouting and actual production. He has shown that durable, innings-horse ability while displaying a sharp, moving fastball that works with enough velocity to project its success against higher-level hitters. Walters relies on his off-speed stuff and the placement of his fastball. It works well at Class AAA, but he has to find a way to work closer to the strike zone for it to be successful at the big-league level.

Both pitchers project as back-of-the-rotation starters, with Lynn pegged by some as a No. 3.

Regardless, the gap between the two in prospect polls is interesting. It could be age (two years) and it could be body type (Lynn has the more hulking frame). It could be draft. But it won’t only be in this poll.

As mentioned yesterday evening, the Baseball America Top 10 that I write and help construct is out. Lynn ranks No. 3. (The Comm Top 21 had him No. 8.) Walters is not in the Top 10, though he is easily in the Top 30. There will be chat about both the Top 10, the forthcoming Top 30, and the system as a whole Wednesday at Baseball America’s web site. I’ll post the scheduled time of the chat — call it HPGF Live!!!! (?) — when I know it.

In the meantime, here is the penultimate poll before we get to the No. 21 Project for this year’s community prospect rankings. Walters (the incumbent) and Reifer come in with the most votes, but there are a few others who are deserving of the ranking as well:

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SCOTT BITTLE, RHP: Whether the red flag was literal or merely figurative, it was large and hard to miss when it came to the scouting reports filed on Bittle, the Ole Miss pitcher with one of the best pitches in the SEC. The Yankees drafted Bittle 75th overall in 2008 and did not sign him because of concerns about a nettlesome shoulder. Bittle has had recurring problems with his shoulder throughout the past few college seasons. He was shut down at the end of the past season because of a shoulder strain. That said, I know people who insist if he’s healthy, he’ll move through the system with the pitch he calls “The Thing.” It’s a high-speed cutter, the kind that is en vogue with relievers (and more) in the majors. It worked for 16 strikeouts/nine innings in his senior year. The Cardinals signed him to a deal they felt was reflective of the health concern (read: low bonus). AGE: 23. STATS: Pitching only in a rehab program to strengthen shoulder and get ready for spring 2010.

RICHARD CASTILLO, RHP: He just turned 20 last month, and already Castillo has 35 games and more than 160 innings in High-A Palm Beach on his baseball card. The youngest of the Cardinals starters who is expected to appear at the higher levels this season, Castillo has also become, in some ways, the torchbearer for the Cardinals international scouting campaigns. Castillo (5-foot-11, 165 pounds) has good enough stuff with solid control. He throws in the low 90s mph, and it’s possible he gains some velocity as he improves his strength and if he improves his conditioning. The experience he’s getting at this age is going to be valuable if his approach catches up to the level. He’s also off playing against some pros in the Venezuelan winter league right now. AGE: 20. STATS: 6-13, 3.87 ERA, with 105 strikeouts with 66 walks in 148 2/3 innings with a .270 BA against.

ROBERTO DE LA CRUZ, 3B: By voiding their deal with outfielder Wagner Mateo, the Cardinals kept De La Cruz in place as their highest-bonus bonus into the international market. De La Cruz is a strapping young man who the Cardinals landed for $1.1 million. His frame and size and look impressed in spring training, but there was some concern about how he looked at the plate. The plan to push him to Johnson City was abandoned, and he found a place with the GCL Cardinals. Word from coaches is he improved, and he did hit .298 in August with seven of his nine doubles coming in the final 94 at-bats he had. At his age, just the exposure — even GCL — is what matters here. AGE: About to turn 18. STATS: .224 BA, .267 OBP, .279 SLG, with nine extra-base hits (all doubles) and 37 hits total. Had 59 Ks and 10 walks.

SAM FREEMAN, LHP: Coming out of Kansas as a 32nd-round pick, Freeman has earned a rep around the system as one of the finer athletes. He also is being billed (by some scouts, too) as a sleeper prospect. He projects as a lefty specialist, but he hasn’t been used exclusively as that in the minors. Against lefties he held them to a .155 average with 15 strikeouts and only five walks in 63 batters faced. Not the kind of strikeout rate that a dominate lefty has against lefties, but it compares well with another lefty specialist to watch: Tyler Norrick. Converted from starter to reliever, Norrick held lefties to a .174 average with 30 strikeouts and 20 walks (too many) in 89 batters faced this past season. Freeman had his season slowed by elbow trouble. There are officials in the system who think he could move quickly through the levels. AGE: 22 STATS: 2-2, 2.41 ERA in 56 innings with a .191 batting average against, 47 strikeouts, 27 walks.

STEVEN HILL, C/1B/OF: He’s listed at catcher. He came into the system as a first baseman. And he’ll do fine in the outfield when given a chance there. Hill hits, and what he has that others in that category don’t is a verified versatility. Word is that he plays catcher well enough to handle the position as a backup or No. 3 catcher. He’s working on his play in the outfield so he could mix in there, and he’s fine at first base, though (say it with me now) the Cardinals don’t have a lot of playing time at first base. There are a handful of hitters in the system like Hill — from the high-end Allen Craig to Hill and Mark Hamilton. If being able to play a position is part of what you look for in a prospect who has done well as a hitter, then Hill has to rate well because he can play a position of specific demands, catcher. AGE: 24 STATS: .282/.333/.470 with 26 doubles, 19 home runs, 64 RBIs and 62 runs in 120 games for Class AA.

JOE KELLY, RHP: Drafted out of UC-Riverside as a reliever, the Cardinals are considering a switch to the rotation for the power-arm righty. Kelly was one of the finer hard-throwing closers in college ball, but with a breaking ball and a developing off-speed pitch to go with the fastball, the Cardinals want to see how he does as a starter. At the very least he’ll get an ample load of innings to refine his pitches — like many other relievers do in the minors. (Recall Braden Looper started in the minors as a starter just to get the innings.) Kelly has a long delivery that concerns some and past shoulder issues that also are something to watch. But he has been known to hit 98 mph with his fastball and it has some sink that results in groundballs 56 percent of the time. AGE: 21. STATS: 2-3, 4.75 ERA at Batavia, with no home runs, 30 Ks, 11 walks, 33 hits allowed, all in 30 1/3 innings.

CASEY MULLIGAN, RHP. The people’s choice for the poll, and it has to be for more than his dancing skills. Mulligan is one of the converted catchers around the Cardinals system, though he doesn’t bring the blazing heat of, say, a Jason Motte. Mulligan’s fastball has late bite to it, and he frustrates hitters by dropping his arm every so often to throw off the view of his pitches. Mulligan’s curve improved through the season, and he scaled the system swiftly. Lot to like for his age and for his level of experience in the role, but it’s not clear if he’s going to be a late-inning prospect. AGE: 22. STATS: 6-2, 1.45 ERA, 97 Ks and 29 walks in 68 1/3 innings, 16 saves; finished at Class AA Springfield and had a 2.21 ERA in 20 innings there.

ADAM REIFER, RHP: Sometimes the relievers that burn the hottest, also burn out the fastest. Mark McCormick, for example, has superb velocity, but cannot stay healthy and cannot keep his delivery together long enough to be consistent. Hard to rank him on velocity alone. Reifer will fight that trend, and seems to have the ability to stay on track. His command stats aren’t great in the AFL, but it’s early and he’s had a full season, so you want context and not just raw numbers. There are scouts who like Reifer’s potential, and they see enough in his late-inning/closer appearances with High-A Palm Beach this past season to think he can continue improving while maintaining that role. He’ll have to be in more command to stay at closer as he climbs the organizational ladder. AGE: 23. STATS: 4-7, 21 saves, 4.47 ERA, 54 Ks, 24 BBs, 48 1/3 innings in 54 games.

P.J. WALTERS, RHP: The righthander did have a few sips of coffee at the major-league level, including a start at Wrigley Field. Some hard lessons were offered. He probably has the best changeup in the system and he thrwos harder than his reputation — but not much harder. Control is his game. And in the majors he learned that being able to control pitches that veer out of the strike zone is swell, but not effective at the top level. Pitches he puts on the edge of the strike zone that get swings in the minors result in walks in the majors. He’s got a workmanlike assortment of pitches, pairing that good changeup with a two-seam fastball that does move and a breaking ball that he can throw for a strike. In a poll that has rewarded proximity to the majors, Walters offers a guy on the doorstep, though his role could be starter, it could also be as Brad Thompson’s replacement. AGE: 24. STATS: In Memphis, he went 8-10, 4.54 ERA with 113 strikeouts, 44 walks in 121 innings pitched. He allowed 128 hits there.

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