Comm Top 21: Changing Expectations (Vote No. 13)
CREVE COEUR — They are at very different stages in their careers, at very different positions and they were talking about two very different subjects, but St. Louis Cardinals ace Chris Carpenter and minor-league outfielder Tyler Henley hit on the same theme during interviews I had with them Wednesday.
In discussing how his career changed when he won the Cy Young Award back in 2005, Carpenter described how expectations changed around him. He wasn’t just the ace of a staff. He was a Cy Young winner, and the game-to-game expectations of what he was supposed to do soared. It wasn’t enough to have pitched well enough to win a Cy Young, Carpenter said, it was about pitching well enough to win another one.
Henley, out in the Arizona Fall League, also spoke about rising expectations.
“I think personally, when you get into pro ball, you believe in yourself that you have that ability to get to the major leagues. You need that belief,” Henley said. “But when you have a good season, you get a real feel for what to expect from yourself. When you have that good season, it changes your expectations. It forces you to increase your expectations and embrace those higher expectations.”
That is certainly the case for Henley. The Rice University alum lost seven weeks of the 2008 season to a fluke finger injury — a pitch actually pinched and severed one of his fingers against the bat — but found a way to emerge from the thicket of outfielders and position himself on the prospect map. Henley is out in Arizona as the part-time option for the Surprise Rafters. That means he can start twice a week, or move into a full-time role if there is an injury.
On Wednesday, a few afters after I talked with him, Henley started in right field and went 3-for-4 with two runs scored and a home run. He’s hitting .289/.378/.526 in 11 games out in Arizona.
He’s in the poll today, but so are a few new names, as requested. Pitcher Adam Ottavino comes off the poll by winning the No. 12 spot in the Bird Land Community Top 21. He got only 28 percent of the vote, but still had 70 votes more than the next highest finisher. Ottavino knows a thing or two about expectations. His were sky-high coming out of college as a first-round pick and have jostled violently since. Now, they are rising again. Robert Stock, another candidate for No. 13 in the poll, may have benefited from modest (even muted) expectations coming out of the 2009 draft. A good start to his pro career changes that. Ditto for a few others who are still on the poll — or new to the poll.
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BRYAN ANDERSON, C. A top-10 prospect annually since his arrival as a young catcher out of high school, Anderson had a stalled season because of injury and performance this past year. Some believe that Matt Pagnozzi leapfrogged in him on the organizational depth chart, and sure the September callup for Pagnozzi is evidence of that move. Anderson, however, remains an offensive plus — if he continues to improve at that position. Still young. Slowed by the shoulder injury. This portends to be a big year for Anderson to make good on all those high expectations, or maroon himself in the midrange-prospect level. Not the trade chip he once was. AGE: 22. STATS: .251/.333/.408 overall, but struggled to a .245 BA, .293 OBP, .399 SLG as the would-be starter for Triple-A Memphis. Of his 40 hits, 14 were for extra bases.
ROBERTO DE LA CRUZ, 3B: By voiding their deal with outfielder Wagner Mateo, the Cardinals kept De La Cruz in place as their highest-bonus bonus into the international market. De La Cruz is a strapping young man who the Cardinals landed for $1.1 million. His frame and size and look impressed in spring training, but there was some concern about how he looked at the plate. The plan to push him to Johnson City was abandoned, and he found a place with the GCL Cardinals. Word from coaches is he improved, and he did hit .298 in August with seven of his nine doubles coming in the final 94 at-bats he had. At his age, just the exposure — even GCL — is what matters here. AGE: About to turn 18. STATS: .224 BA, .267 OBP, .279 SLG, with nine extra-base hits (all doubles) and 37 hits total. Had 59 Ks and 10 walks.
TYLER HENLEY, OF: The former Rice University standout, taken in the eighth round of the 2007 draft, was probably lost in the traffic jam of outfielders the Cardinals had last season, but he emerged in Class AA this season with a solid line, especially for a leadoff hitter/high-lineup hitter who can also all three positions in the field. He’s listed as a RF in the Arizona Fall League, but has also shown the ability to handle center field. In Springfield, he had 60 strikeouts and 40 walks to go with his other numbers (below). He doesn’t have one stat or one tool that sings out, but the chorus of thins that he does makes him worthy of a spot in the rankings this season, perhaps a top-half spot. AGE: 24. STATS: .303 BA, .367 OBP, .482 SLG, 13 HR, 63 RBI, 62 runs.
JON JAY, OF: The lefthanded hitting outfielder refined his swing to limit — or almost eliminate — the helicopter-hands timing mechanism that some scouts see as a defect in an otherwise smooth stroke. Jay struggled slow this past season, but found his feel later in the year as the polished approach at the plate became more natural, more effective. He hit .326 in the final month of the regular season with Class AAA Memphis, and some of that was buoyed by his .356/.378/.544 line in August. Some still stand by their belief that Jay has a high-average swing set to be a .300 hitter in the majors. His closing kick supported that, and he’s off in Venezuela this winter to better his standing. AGE: 24. STATS: .281/.338/.394, 23 doubles, 64 strikeouts and 34 walks with 505 at-bats.
PETE KOZMA, SS: One can wonder where Kozma would be in these rankings if he didn’t have the first-round pick label drawing people’s eyes. That is a fair question. Taken with the Cardinals first pick in the 2007 draft, it will be awhile before Kozma shakes the stigma of that pick, through no fault of his own. The truth is he’s a strong defensive player who opposing managers in his league said was the best with the glove in the Texas League despite the load of errors. He has all of the qualities of a reliable shortstop, though he doesn’t have the high-wire athleticism that, say, Brendan Ryan had at the same level. Kozma’s bat remains a riddle. Coaches, and even some scouts, believe there is gap power there — if only there was more contact there. The Cardinals can cling to Kozma’s trend. He usually struggles in his first taste/half season at a level and then gets traction and excels in a second half season there. He’ll return to Class AA Springfield, and he could spend the whole season there. AGE: 21 STATS: .231/.302/.323 overall with 20 doubles and 60 runs scored, 25 errors, but … .315/.381/.384 at High-A Palm Beach, his second half season at the level.
CASEY MULLIGAN, RHP. The people’s choice for the poll, and it has to be for more than his dancing skills. Mulligan is one of the converted catchers around the Cardinals system, though he doesn’t bring the blazing heat of, say, a Jason Motte. Mulligan’s fastball has late bite to it, and he frustrates hitters by dropping his arm every so often to throw off the view of his pitches. Mulligan’s curve improved through the season, and he scaled the system swiftly. Lot to like for his age and for his level of experience in the role, but it’s not clear if he’s going to be a late-inning prospect. AGE: 22. STATS: 6-2, 1.45 ERA, 97 Ks and 29 walks in 68 1/3 innings, 16 saves; finished at Class AA Springfield and had a 2.21 ERA in 20 innings there.
ADAM REIFER, RHP: Sometimes the relievers that burn the hottest, also burn out the fastest. Mark McCormick, for example, has superb velocity, but cannot stay healthy and cannot keep his delivery together long enough to be consistent. Hard to rank him on velocity alone. Reifer will fight that trend, and seems to have the ability to stay on track. His command stats aren’t great in the AFL, but it’s early and he’s had a full season, so you want context and not just raw numbers. There are scouts who like Reifer’s potential, and they see enough in his late-inning/closer appearances with High-A Palm Beach this past season to think he can continue improving while maintaining that role. He’ll have to be in more command to stay at closer as he climbs the organizational ladder. AGE: 23. STATS: 4-7, 21 saves, 4.47 ERA, 54 Ks, 24 BBs, 48 1/3 innings in 54 games.
FRANCISCO SAMUEL, RHP: Has one of the top power arms in the system, but is the personification of the difference between strike velocity and raw velocity. He can chuck it. He has been known to fire 98 mph, and I watched him throw consistently 96 mph, 97 mph in spring training. But how many of those pitches were strikes? When Samuel sides with consistent control over speed, he does dip into the 94 mph, 95 mph zone. Samuel has been used as closer and setup, and he has an easy delivery that he can repeat. That tells some scouts and coaches that the command will come, and not at the cost of his velocity. When that happens, then he’ll be more of a surefire late-inning relief prospect. AGE: 22. STATS: 59 strikeouts and 46 walks in 47 2/3 innings. Opponents hit .208 against him. He went 3-4, 5.66 ERA with 22 saves for Double-A Springfield.
ROBERT STOCK, C: He graduated from high school early, played college ball at Southern Cal as a youngster and has already finished his first half season of pro ball before he turns 20. That comes in a few weeks. Stock attracted scouts as a pitcher, but the Cardinals — who took him in the second round of the recent draft — were willing to grant his wish of playing catcher. He’s got the arm strength. He’s raw, but ready to improve with his footwork. Can he hit? He struggled as a young player in the Pac-10, but did OK in his pro debut at what is probably a lower level than his college conference. Candidly, he could fit anywhere in the top 30 for me, from No. 5 to No. 30. There just doesn’t seem to be enough information to hang on. Premium position? Check. Tools? Check. Concerns about his bat? Sure. If he handles full-season ball well in 2010, he’ll be a top 10 prospect in this system? Easy. AGE: 19. STATS: .294/.363/.494 overall with 18 extra-base hits, seven home runs and a .550 slugging percentage in Johnson City. Up to Quad Cities for a cameo and he went .095/.208/.095.
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If you got this far, I’m co-hosting the Parris/Burwell show on 101.1 FM ESPN/WXOS this morning. You can catch the streaming by clicking here, and you can text message in your thoughts at 314-239-4808. Also, there will be some scheduling changes to Bird Land in the coming week as I look to steal a few days to spend with a certain toddler.
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Derrick Goold said he was going to Mizzou for capital-J journalism, but after growing up in the Time Zone Baseball Forgot he was really drawn to MU sitting between two major-league cities. Goold joined the Post-Dispatch in 2001 after working for The Times-Picayune and Rocky Mountain News, covering sports from LSU to NHL and every level of baseball in between.
DG, I think you should take Jay’s name off that bottom list of yours. He won a spot already, lol. Reifer too.
Anderson turns 23 in December and if the club was willing to take a left-handed offensive option as the backup to Yadier Molina instead of a veteran defensive option with no bat, Anderson would already be in St. Louis. Is anyone else puzzled as to why Matt Pagnozzi is on the St. Louis 40-man and not Bryan Anderson? If he is subject to the Rule 5, the Cardinals WILL lose Anderson to an organization willing to make him a left-handed offensive backup to their current starting catcher before eventually becoming the starter.
Scott Schneider please…
JKoch,
Reifer stays on. Not sure why Jay showed up today. Odd. But heck, let him ride it out for a few days. He’s already on the poll, but nothing wrong with sharing his thumbnail for a few more days.
dg
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DG, I just didn’t see Reifer’s name on the poll, so I thought he had a spot on the list already. I guess you’re keeping him on there as other? And true nothing wrong with him staying on. He needs more press with the fans so they can cheer him on and hopefully make the roster.
Just saying it was kind of funny that he was still on the list.
Come on people, Robert Stock needs to up here.
In an organization seriously lacking left handed pitching, I think some respect is owed to Sam Freeman, who has shot quickly up through the system to AA in his first full season, along with Lance Lynn. Difference being Lynn was a second rounder and Freeman was a mid-round pick (30ish, maybe).
The fact that Samuel is leading this vote can mean only one thing; St.Louis has a huge drinking problem or some other substance abuse.
You’re on the right track, eccard; Samuel’s velocity intoxicates–in the bad sense of the word. People become irrational, overvaluing radar readings almost to the exclusion of all else.
Chris Perez had big V in the minors, and control problems, but he got people OUT. It made sense, therefore, to rank him highly. Samuel & Reifer…no.
Casey Mulligan is a year and a half younger than Reifer, and pitching at the same level in 2009 had an ERA about Three Runs Lower. I’ll take Mulligan, thanks.
I’m Riefer mad.