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11.03.2009 8:36 am

Comm Top 21: Facing Heat in Arizona (Vote No. 12)

St. Louis Post-Dispatch
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TOWER GROVE — Some members of the St. Louis Cardinals brass, including VP/farm director Jeff Luhnow and assistant general manager John Abbamondi, traveled west this week to see the Arizona Fall League and the prospects there in person. They were greeted with a marquee start — against their players.

Stephen Strasburg, the Washington Nationals’ No. 1 overall pick in last year’s draft and widely billed as the best pitching prospect to reach the draft in years, is throwing for the Nats in the AFL. On Monday, he worked five innings for his longest outing yet as a pro. He allowed one run on four hits and struck out six against one walk. Two Cardinals prospects got starts against Strasburg for the Surprise Rafters — second baseman Daniel Descalso, batting No. 2, and outfielder Daryl Jones, batting No. 8.

Watching, presumably from the stands, Luhnow tweeted this on his Twitter feed (@jluhnow):

Descalso and Jones starting today facing Steven Strasberg. Strasberg pitching at 99-101 mph.

Neither Cardinals prospect struck out against the fireball righthander. So there’s that. Descalso singled in his first at-bat of the game, slashing a pitch to the opposite field for a single. Jones grounded out in his two at-bats against Strasburg, and Descalso grounded out in his second at-bat against the righty. Later in the game, Jones, a lefthanded hitter, scorched a triple to the right-center wall. He scored on a groundout, adding to his quirky stat line from Arizona. Jones, who has been ranked No. 6 in the Bird Land Community Top 21, is hitting .208 out in Arizona, but six of his 11 hits have gone for extra bases, including two homers, and he has 10 walks. His on-base percentage is .373 and his slugging percentage is .415, either of which looks better and more telling than the batting average. He also has six steals.

But before I fall into the trap of another Arizona Fall League update — yes, there will be those every so often — back to the Comm Top 21. Outfielder Jon Jay, who is playing winter ball internationally, seized the No. 11 spot in the prospect poll with 32 percent of the 382 votes. Jay, a lefthanded hitter, is batting .282/.385/.346 with Leones del Caracas in the Venezuelan winter league.

Another fall baller joins the poll today — catcher Bryan Anderson. A top 10 prospect every other year he’s been ranked and a top five prospect according to some publications a year ago, Anderson hit a speedbump this past season with a shoulder injury. Anderson did not have surgery on the shoulder as initially believed/reported. Instead, he let hit heal and accepted an assignment to the Arizona Fall League to make up some at-bats. So far, he’s appeared in eight games with the Rafters and put up a .222/.333/.296 line. He continues to improve defensively, and is due for some more Mike Matheny instruction coming this spring. Getting his bat back will only enhance his standing on prospect lists, but it’s the defense and improving as a handler behind the plate that will push him out of Triple-A.

Where he fits into this prospect poll, is up to you with the vote for No. 12:

Who is the Cardinals’ No. 12 prospect?

View Results

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BRYAN ANDERSON, C. Discussed above. AGE: 22. STATS: .251/.333/.408 overall, but struggled to a .245 BA, .293 OBP, .399 SLG as the would-be starter for Triple-A Memphis. Of his 40 hits, 14 were for extra bases.

TYLER HENLEY, OF: The former Rice University standout, taken in the eighth round of the 2007 draft, was probably lost in the traffic jam of outfielders the Cardinals had last season, but he emerged in Class AA this season with a solid line, especially for a leadoff hitter/high-lineup hitter who can also all three positions in the field. He’s listed as a RF in the Arizona Fall League, but has also shown the ability to handle center field. In Springfield, he had 60 strikeouts and 40 walks to go with his other numbers (below). He doesn’t have one stat or one tool that sings out, but the chorus of thins that he does makes him worthy of a spot in the rankings this season, perhaps a top-half spot. AGE: 24. STATS: .303 BA, .367 OBP, .482 SLG, 13 HR, 63 RBI, 62 runs.

JON JAY, OF: The lefthanded hitting outfielder refined his swing to limit — or almost eliminate — the helicopter-hands timing mechanism that some scouts see as a defect in an otherwise smooth stroke. Jay struggled slow this past season, but found his feel later in the year as the polished approach at the plate became more natural, more effective. He hit .326 in the final month of the regular season with Class AAA Memphis, and some of that was buoyed by his .356/.378/.544 line in August. Some still stand by their belief that Jay has a high-average swing set to be a .300 hitter in the majors. His closing kick supported that, and he’s off in Venezuela this winter to better his standing. AGE: 24. STATS: .281/.338/.394, 23 doubles, 64 strikeouts and 34 walks with 505 at-bats.

PETE KOZMA, SS: One can wonder where Kozma would be in these rankings if he didn’t have the first-round pick label drawing people’s eyes. That is a fair question. Taken with the Cardinals first pick in the 2007 draft, it will be awhile before Kozma shakes the stigma of that pick, through no fault of his own. The truth is he’s a strong defensive player who opposing managers in his league said was the best with the glove in the Texas League despite the load of errors. He has all of the qualities of a reliable shortstop, though he doesn’t have the high-wire athleticism that, say, Brendan Ryan had at the same level. Kozma’s bat remains a riddle. Coaches, and even some scouts, believe there is gap power there — if only there was more contact there. The Cardinals can cling to Kozma’s trend. He usually struggles in his first taste/half season at a level and then gets traction and excels in a second half season there. He’ll return to Class AA Springfield, and he could spend the whole season there. AGE: 21 STATS: .231/.302/.323 overall with 20 doubles and 60 runs scored, 25 errors, but … .315/.381/.384 at High-A Palm Beach, his second half season at the level.

ADAM OTTAVINO, RHP: Was the Cardinals’ first-round pick in 2006 — 30th overall — and has sported one of the better arms in the system ever since. He has both power on his fastball and feel for several off-speed stuff. What he’s lacked is consistent command of said pitches, and much of that comes from the inability to consistently repeat his delivery. He has been groping for the mechanics that make him both comfortable and that he can repeat with every pitch. This past season, he gritted through several winless months before finding a toehold with the help of pitching coach Blaise Isley. Ottavino has the frame and strength that projects as a starter, and finally he had half a season that puts him on track back to be the prospect advertised. Consistency from start to start has to follow consistency pitch to pitch. AGE: 23. STATS: 7-12, 4.75 ERA, 119 Ks, 82 walks, 114 innings pitched.

ADAM REIFER, RHP: Sometimes the relievers that burn the hottest, also burn out the fastest. Mark McCormick, for example, has superb velocity, but cannot stay healthy and cannot keep his delivery together long enough to be consistent. Hard to rank him on velocity alone. Reifer will fight that trend, and seems to have the ability to stay on track. His command stats aren’t great in the AFL, but it’s early and he’s had a full season, so you want context and not just raw numbers. There are scouts who like Reifer’s potential, and they see enough in his late-inning/closer appearances with High-A Palm Beach this past season to think he can continue improving while maintaining that role. He’ll have to be in more command to stay at closer as he climbs the organizational ladder. AGE: 23. STATS: 4-7, 21 saves, 4.47 ERA, 54 Ks, 24 BBs, 48 1/3 innings in 54 games.

FRANCISCO SAMUEL, RHP: Has one of the top power arms in the system, but is the personification of the difference between strike velocity and raw velocity. He can chuck it. He has been known to fire 98 mph, and I watched him throw consistently 96 mph, 97 mph in spring training. But how many of those pitches were strikes? When Samuel sides with consistent control over speed, he does dip into the 94 mph, 95 mph zone. Samuel has been used as closer and setup, and he has an easy delivery that he can repeat. That tells some scouts and coaches that the command will come, and not at the cost of his velocity. When that happens, then he’ll be more of a surefire late-inning relief prospect. AGE: 22. STATS: 59 strikeouts and 46 walks in 47 2/3 innings. Opponents hit .208 against him. He went 3-4, 5.66 ERA with 22 saves for Double-A Springfield.

ROBERT STOCK, C: He graduated from high school early, played college ball at Southern Cal as a youngster and has already finished his first half season of pro ball before he turns 20. That comes in a few weeks. Stock attracted scouts as a pitcher, but the Cardinals — who took him in the second round of the recent draft — were willing to grant his wish of playing catcher. He’s got the arm strength. He’s raw, but ready to improve with his footwork. Can he hit? He struggled as a young player in the Pac-10, but did OK in his pro debut at what is probably a lower level than his college conference. Candidly, he could fit anywhere in the top 30 for me, from No. 5 to No. 30. There just doesn’t seem to be enough information to hang on. Premium position? Check. Tools? Check. Concerns about his bat? Sure. If he handles full-season ball well in 2010, he’ll be a top 10 prospect in this system? Easy. AGE: 19. STATS: .294/.363/.494 overall with 18 extra-base hits, seven home runs and a .550 slugging percentage in Johnson City. Up to Quad Cities for a cameo and he went .095/.208/.095.

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13 comments

DG:

If Reifer and Samuel are two hard throwers, with control issues, on your list, why is Casey Mulligan not on your list? He’s younger than both Reifer and Samuel, and despite not having pitched that long, his stuff is electric. At Springfield, he allowed 15hits in 20ip, with 12 bbs and 27 Ks. Is it because he’s so raw, without a servicable 2nd pitch?

— bostonbird
9:17 am November 3rd, 2009

Those are a few of the reasons. Track record isn’t there. And, because I do try to keep these polls a democracy, yours is the first to state the case for him. Jarrett Hoffpauir has come up a few times, too. I’ve enlisted some other prospect-watchers for the poll, and I want to use those suggestions, the polls themselves, and comments like yours (especially those that gather support) as a guide.

I’d like to hear more about why you think Mulligan, Reifer and Samuel are in a similar class of prospect. Please elaborate.

Now, Mulligan’s Thriller dance could be the tiebreaker …

dg
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— Derrick Goold
9:31 am November 3rd, 2009

I was wondering about Mulligan too, but then I thought he really didn’t throw that hard for a closer. Doesn’t he only throw in the low 90’s? Please correct me if I’m wrong.

— snoopycarmichael
10:06 am November 3rd, 2009

You are not wrong.

— Derrick Goold
12:22 pm November 3rd, 2009

I would still like to see Jarrett Hoffpauir on the poll, but this time I voted for Bryan Anderson. He turns 23 in December and finished his 1st full season at AAA Memphis battling a shoulder injury all season.

Anderson’s stats from 2008, year previous the injury:
AA Springfield: 80ABs, .388BA, .412OBP, .525SLG, 7XBH, 2 of those HRs, 4BB/12K
AAA Memphis: 235ABs, .281BA, .367OBP, .379SLG, 17XBH, 2 of those HRs, 32BB/46K

The low # of ABs is attributed to his platooning with Mark Johnson in 2008. He also platooned with Matt Pagnozzi, which depending on your opinions on Pagnozzi, seems to make no sense at all. Anderson should be a left-handed offensive backup to Yadier Molina right now, but the organization is favoring a more defensive backup to Yadi with a horrible bat instead. Again is worth mentioning Anderson will be only 23 next season.

— Michael Scriven
12:29 pm November 3rd, 2009

Mulligan has a low 90’s fastball and the nastiest breaking ball in the cards minor league system.

— Mike
1:02 pm November 3rd, 2009

I voted for Stock but could see a case for Ottavino or Anderson.

I think that Reifer should come off the list until much later. Kozma, too, if you ask me.

Others to consider (strong in the recent results category):
Casey Mulligan, RP, better than Reifer
Nick Additon, 21, LHSP, was pretty good in AA last year.
Mike Parisi, 26, has a chance next year
Mark Hamilton has bat but maybe not enough D.
Jarret Hoffpauir has bat but maybe not enough D.
Blake King, 22, was unhittable, but it was at Palm Beach
Scott Schneider, 21, SP, was dominant at Batavia.
Daniel Calhoun, 22, LHSP, was too old and too good to be at Batavia.
Santo Maertz, 23, RP, was too old and far too good to be at Batavia.
Patrick Daugherty, 20, LHRP, needs control to be more interesting.

Youngsters to watch:
Grabiel Hernandez, SS, age 17
Hector Corpas, RP, age 19
Hector Hernandez and Pedro Pena, LHSP, age 18
John DeAquas, LHP, age 17

— cardstatman
10:50 pm November 3rd, 2009

Well, I guess you can forget about the case for hoffpauir since he is now property of the Jays

— scott
12:45 am November 4th, 2009

Yes, saw that late last night. Blue Jays had been demanding a prospect shortstop in the Halladay “talks” last summer. With Scutaro a free agent perhaps the Jays move Aaron Hill back to his original shortstop position, leave John McDonald as a utility player and make Hoffpauir their new 2nd baseman. It is probably for the best for the Cardinals also, as it clears a starting spot in Memphis for Descalso. Say what you want about Hoffpauir’s defense: it didn’t stop him from a similar rise in the minors that Descalso has had and didn’t stop him from being the starter in Memphis and putting up consecutive strong offensive seasons. That’s all for Hoffpauir here.

— Michael Scriven
6:49 am November 4th, 2009

Why keep Reifer in the poll if no one votes for him?

— cariocacardinal
10:05 am November 4th, 2009

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