Comm Top 21: The Power of Average (Vote No. 11)
TOWER GROVE — The Bird Land Community Top 21’s top 10 is completed, and we’re just about halfway through the annual ranking of St. Louis Cardinals prospects by readers here at the blog. The overarching lessons of the first 10 are two-fold: Voters have adopted the perceived franchise emphasis on winning now/contributing now and the Cardinals system, as a whole, is significantly diluted, even lacking.
Second baseman Daniel Descalso, who had one of a handful of breakout years in 2009, won the runoff spot for No. 9 in the poll, taking 53 percent of the 629 votes and edging shortstop Tyler Greene. The poll so far:
- Jaime Garcia, LHP (SP)
- David Freese, 3B
- Shelby Miller, RHP (SP)
- Allen Craig, LF
- Blake Hawksworth, RHP (RP)
- Daryl Jones, OF
- Eduardo Sanchez, RHP (RP)
- Lance Lynn, RHP (SP)
- Daniel Descalso, 2B
- Tyler Greene, SS
The face that there have already been two runoffs — and certainly more coming — speaks to the real problem with ranking the Cardinals prospects this season. Past a certain number or a certain name and it’s really a pell mell, a pick ‘em of prospects. No. 19 may not look at that different in the grand scheme here than, say, No. 10 or No. 13.
Entering into this parity for today’s poll is, fittingly, the question of being average.
Shortstop Pete Kozma, the first-round pick from 2007, is widely viewed as a prospect with no obvious plus plus-level tool. Combining the descriptions of both scouts and coaches, Kozma is just a well-rounded shortstop who does everything well and not one thing exceptional. He’s a stable and even plus defensive player, but doesn’t have the fleet feet or big-ticket pop that prospect rankings ooh and aah over. Some see him as a future utility player because of that. Others argue there is a value in being well-round with no obvious flaws. He joins the poll today along with second-round pick Robert Stock, and Kozma is not alone in the well-rounded club.
Tyler Henley fits there, too.
Henley, a hard-nosed outfielder out of Rice University, put himself firmly on the prospect radar this season by, well, being himself. The lefthanded-hitting Henley had been lost somewhat in the traffic of outfielders, especially lefthanded-hitting outfielders like Jon Jay, Colby Rasmus and Daryl Jones. Does he hit for a high-average like Jay? Nah. Is he the top-flight toolsy prospect like Rasmus? Not quite. The raw athlete that Jones is? No. He’s just a well-rounded, scrappy outfielder with the savvy and seasoning of a player from a strong college program. The Cardinals, internally, compare him to Lenny Dykstra. None of the numbers he put up are overwhelming: .303 average, .367 on-base percentage, .482 slugging, all strong for a leadoff-like hitter; 13 homers, good; 31 doubles, plus; etc. But combined they illustrate that doesn’t-dazzle but does-everything-well prospect that has a place in the poll.
And you get to decide what place:
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TYLER HENLEY, OF: The former Rice University standout, taken in the eighth round of the 2007 draft, was probably lost in the traffic jam of outfielders the Cardinals had last season, but he emerged in Class AA this season with a solid line, especially for a leadoff hitter/high-lineup hitter who can also all three positions in the field. He’s listed as a RF in the Arizona Fall League, but has also shown the ability to handle center field. In Springfield, he had 60 strikeouts and 40 walks to go with his other numbers (below). He doesn’t have one stat or one tool that sings out, but the chorus of thins that he does makes him worthy of a spot in the rankings this season, perhaps a top-half spot. AGE: 24. STATS: .303 BA, .367 OBP, .482 SLG, 13 HR, 63 RBI, 62 runs.
JON JAY, OF: The lefthanded hitting outfielder refined his swing to limit — or almost eliminate — the helicopter-hands timing mechanism that some scouts see as a defect in an otherwise smooth stroke. Jay struggled slow this past season, but found his feel later in the year as the polished approach at the plate became more natural, more effective. He hit .326 in the final month of the regular season with Class AAA Memphis, and some of that was buoyed by his .356/.378/.544 line in August. Some still stand by their belief that Jay has a high-average swing set to be a .300 hitter in the majors. His closing kick supported that, and he’s off in Venezuela this winter to better his standing. AGE: 24. STATS: .281/.338/.394, 23 doubles, 64 strikeouts and 34 walks with 505 at-bats.
PETE KOZMA, SS: One can wonder where Kozma would be in these rankings if he didn’t have the first-round pick label drawing people’s eyes. That is a fair question. Taken with the Cardinals first pick in the 2007 draft, it will be awhile before Kozma shakes the stigma of that pick, through no fault of his own. The truth is he’s a strong defensive player who opposing managers in his league said was the best with the glove in the Texas League despite the load of errors. He has all of the qualities of a reliable shortstop, though he doesn’t have the high-wire athleticism that, say, Brendan Ryan had at the same level. Kozma’s bat remains a riddle. Coaches, and even some scouts, believe there is gap power there — if only there was more contact there. The Cardinals can cling to Kozma’s trend. He usually struggles in his first taste/half season at a level and then gets traction and excels in a second half season there. He’ll return to Class AA Springfield, and he could spend the whole season there. AGE: 21 STATS: .231/.302/.323 overall with 20 doubles and 60 runs scored, 25 errors, but … .315/.381/.384 at High-A Palm Beach, his second half season at the level.
ADAM OTTAVINO, RHP: Was the Cardinals’ first-round pick in 2006 — 30th overall — and has sported one of the better arms in the system ever since. He has both power on his fastball and feel for several off-speed stuff. What he’s lacked is consistent command of said pitches, and much of that comes from the inability to consistently repeat his delivery. He has been groping for the mechanics that make him both comfortable and that he can repeat with every pitch. This past season, he gritted through several winless months before finding a toehold with the help of pitching coach Blaise Isley. Ottavino has the frame and strength that projects as a starter, and finally he had half a season that puts him on track back to be the prospect advertised. Consistency from start to start has to follow consistency pitch to pitch. AGE: 23. STATS: 7-12, 4.75 ERA, 119 Ks, 82 walks, 114 innings pitched.
ADAM REIFER, RHP: Sometimes the relievers that burn the hottest, also burn out the fastest. Mark McCormick, for example, has superb velocity, but cannot stay healthy and cannot keep his delivery together long enough to be consistent. Hard to rank him on velocity alone. Reifer will fight that trend, and seems to have the ability to stay on track. His command stats aren’t great in the AFL, but it’s early and he’s had a full season, so you want context and not just raw numbers. There are scouts who like Reifer’s potential, and they see enough in his late-inning/closer appearances with High-A Palm Beach this past season to think he can continue improving while maintaining that role. He’ll have to be in more command to stay at closer as he climbs the organizational ladder. AGE: 23. STATS: 4-7, 21 saves, 4.47 ERA, 54 Ks, 24 BBs, 48 1/3 innings in 54 games.
FRANCISCO SAMUEL, RHP: Has one of the top power arms in the system, but is the personification of the difference between strike velocity and raw velocity. He can chuck it. He has been known to fire 98 mph, and I watched him throw consistently 96 mph, 97 mph in spring training. But how many of those pitches were strikes? When Samuel sides with consistent control over speed, he does dip into the 94 mph, 95 mph zone. Samuel has been used as closer and setup, and he has an easy delivery that he can repeat. That tells some scouts and coaches that the command will come, and not at the cost of his velocity. When that happens, then he’ll be more of a surefire late-inning relief prospect. AGE: 22. STATS: 59 strikeouts and 46 walks in 47 2/3 innings. Opponents hit .208 against him. He went 3-4, 5.66 ERA with 22 saves for Double-A Springfield.
ROBERT STOCK, C: He graduated from high school early, played college ball at Southern Cal as a youngster and has already finished his first half season of pro ball before he turns 20. That comes in a few weeks. Stock attracted scouts as a pitcher, but the Cardinals — who took him in the second round of the recent draft — were willing to grant his wish of playing catcher. He’s got the arm strength. He’s raw, but ready to improve with his footwork. Can he hit? He struggled as a young player in the Pac-10, but did OK in his pro debut at what is probably a lower level than his college conference. Candidly, he could fit anywhere in the top 30 for me, from No. 5 to No. 30. There just doesn’t seem to be enough information to hang on. Premium position? Check. Tools? Check. Concerns about his bat? Sure. If he handles full-season ball well in 2010, he’ll be a top 10 prospect in this system? Easy. AGE: 19. STATS: .294/.363/.494 overall with 18 extra-base hits, seven home runs and a .550 slugging percentage in Johnson City. Up to Quad Cities for a cameo and he went .095/.208/.095.
It is interesting to note that the Cardinals’ plan is to have Stock and Shelby Miller be the batter in Quad Cities in 2010, and there are some who could see the duo moving in tandem early in their careers.
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Derrick Goold said he was going to Mizzou for capital-J journalism, but after growing up in the Time Zone Baseball Forgot he was really drawn to MU sitting between two major-league cities. Goold joined the Post-Dispatch in 2001 after working for The Times-Picayune and Rocky Mountain News, covering sports from LSU to NHL and every level of baseball in between.
Went with Adam O, but I’m in agreement with you DG, they all seem to be in a bundle and a case could be made for any player on the list in this spot. I chose Adam as he’s still young and he’s got the “stuff” I would think this should be a big year for him, or he’ll move down quite a bit in the Cards eyes. If he can cut those walks in half, his era and wins will reflect the change.
I’d still like to see Jarrett Hoffpauir make this list, but I voted for Jon Jay. He is a left-handed hitting outfielder who continues to improve at the plate. On top of his power/speed combo, Jay is progressing into a high BA-OBP type with a good eye at the plate and an above-average baserunner. Most of all, Jay displays the type of baseball instincts that I could only compare to, but of course not matchup with, Albert Pujols.
If Boggs is eligible, he should be in the top 10. Ottavino, Kozma and Samuel will never make it in my opinion. Reifer may be in the same category. After Jay and Henley I like Hamilton, Stock, Parisi, Cutler, Sanchez, Mulligan. Additon, Curt Smith, Castillo, Adams, Conley, Grabiel Hernandez and Gorgen for a top 25.
Miller should not have gone at number 3 until he proves something.
Les
Difficult to see how Henley and Jay will hit well enough to be anything but replacement players. They may have a So Taguchi ceiling.
Kozma really hurt his prospect status this year. No sign of any hitting ability.
Ottavino bounced back in the last few weeks of the season but wasn’t very good for most of the season.
Reifer and Samuel don’t miss many bats and don’t know where they are throwing it. Probably throw quite a few right down the middle. That won’t cut it at higher levels.
So I went with Stock. If he fails after a couple years as a catcher, he can try again as a pitcher. It could even help him since he won’t be adding wear and tear to his young arm and he will be helping others learn to pitch.
pj walters has to start getting some attention soon,i know he had a rough go in his short big league time, but his pitches are as good or better than lynns & he is as much of a workhorse as anyone , his college innings out number anyone in the organization & he has never missed a pro start.i believe he will comoete for that #5 spot in spring.
Time to admit that Reifer shouldn’t be considered this early and take him off the list and replace him with someone more deserving who might get some votes.