DOWNTOWN – Not too often the Cardinals wake up on the last day of April with a chance to make a little franchise history. But that’s the case today.

The Cardinals won their 17th game of April last night against the Reds. It came in a 7-2 victory that saw manager Tony La Russa tinker just enough with his lineup to add depth of power and watch it work. That win tied a franchise record for most wins in April, a record that was set in 2000 and reset in 2006.

2000 … 17-8 … +4.5 lead in division.

2006 … 17-8 … virtual tie atop division. 

The club has never won 18 games in the season’s opening month.

Just think, winning at an 18-game-a-month clip would put the Cardinals on the verge of a real historic win total in, oh, about eight months of baseball. And that is the subject of the first question in this week’s PostCards. The Cubs were the latest team to reach 10,000 franchise victories, but how is that possible on reader wonders. Can the Cubs get to 10,000 wins faster than, say, LA Dodgers and their collection of pennants? the New York Yankees and their hoard of championships? the Cardinals and their decades of dominance? Can that be counted right?

Yes. But it’s closer than many realize.

On with PostCards:

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1st Q: I have a PostCards question for you: Rick Hummel’s recent column
contained the following quote:

“NEWS ITEM: The Chicago Cubs became the second National League franchise (behind the New York/San Francisco Giants) to reach 10,000 wins as they moved into first place in the National League Central Division.”

This seems to mean that the Cardinals have not yet won 10,000 games in franchise history, while the Cubs have. But how can that be? How can the Cubs have more wins in their franchise history than the Cardinals do? At least over the past 100 years, I would think that the Cardinals’ win total would be significantly higher. Were the Cubs that much better than the Cardinals in the late 1800s and very early 1900s? Please help me understand this!

– Paul H., Metropolis, Ill.

DG: So glad you asked because the Cardinals are in a heck of a race to be the third franchise in baseball history win their 10,000th game. That is, according to research over at Baseball-Reference.com. It will still be another decade plus for the franchise if you prefer to go with the numbers in the Cardinals’ media guide.

Let me explain.

On the same page in last Sunday’s paper as the aforementioned Hummel column was this little ditty called the Hot Corner. In that particular Hot Corner was the list of teams who have more than 9,000 wins and are on their way to 10,000. Sometime next year, both the LA Dodgers and the Cardinals could reach 10,000:

TEAM: LA Dodgers
WINS-LOSSES: 9,886-8,895
WIN %: .524
EST.: 1884

TEAM: Cardinals
WINS-LOSSES: 9,857-9,205*
WIN %: .517
EST.: 1882

The Cubs, by contrast, were established in 1876, giving them a six-season head start on the Cardinals. So, it’s not so bad that over more than 125 years the Cardinals have made up five years of wins. The Yankees are in the same situation — well above anyone in the 20th Century when it comes to wins, but set to hit 10,000 after a handful of National League clubs. That’s the catch with the Cardinals’ media guide. The Cardinals recognize only records since they joined the National League, and that means since 1892, slicing the Cardinals total wins to 9,079.

Could be a big year next year. All-Star Game. 10,000th win. And … ?

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2nd Q: The Cards recent slump (losing 5 of 7 going into Saturday’s game) got me thinking, why are we having so much difficulty scoring runs? It seems like when we went on our season-starting tear, we were getting timely hits. Now, it seems like every time we get a chance to do some damage, it’s another left on base, ground-into-double-play, or strike-out. So I did a little digging, and here’s what I found (all stats from statfox.com):

Team BB: 5.1/game, best in MLB (.5/game more than 2nd place Mets)
Team LOB: averaging 8.6/game, worst in MLB
Team GIDP: 1.3/game, 26th out of 30 (or 5th worst)
Team SO: 5.8/game, 8th in MLB
Team Runs: 4.6/game, 14th in MLB

It appears we’ve made some serious strides in plate discipline (thus all the walks), but it’s not translating into runs. Additionally, it seems like a lot of the time we get a walk, we immediately hit into a DP (thus our 1.3/game). Is our new-found plate discipline actually hurting us? What I mean is, is the emphasis on drawing a walk actually causing our hitters to approach the plate too passively? Shouldn’t they be looking to do some damage with the bat when opportunity knocks? It also seems like most of our strike-outs come with runners on-base. Should TLR perhaps put more emphasis on attacking pitchers when we get runners on?

– Seth Thorp, St. Louis

DG: To me, the bigger concern is the runners left on base, not the ones erased by double plays. I think what you’re seeing speaks to styles of hitters or some of the shuffles that need to be done to improve the depth of attack in the Cardinals’ lineup. Saw that tonight, a few hours ago against Cincinnati. The Cardinals came into the game having stranded 47 runners over the previous five games. A shift to the lineup moved Rick Ankiel or Chris Duncan out of the No. 2 spot and into the heart of the order. Ankiel is starting to heat up, obviously, and adding Duncan to the No. 6 spot improved the depth of power. Instead of Adam Kennedy coming up in that RBI spot as he had been, he hit second and help set the table for the RBI guys. It worked for one night. But a larger truth is also being revealed, one your numbers begin to show.

Albert Pujols is going to get on base. (What’s the over-under on his streak?)

Troy Glaus is going to drive in runs. (With 21, three shy of career high for April.)

But the bat that really kickstarts the Cardinals’ offense — Ankiel’s.

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3rd Q: I read somewhere in the StL P-D online this morning that Jason Isringhausen is limping as he jogs, but that he says he’s ‘fine’. Given the Card’s history of saying, ‘he’s fine’ right before putting a player on the DL, do you think are we about to see Chris Perez?

– Andrew McNeill, Watertown, Conn.

DG: Nope. Perez, as good as he was late in spring and as strong of an impression as he left, will not vault from sharing the closing job in Memphis to the starting job in St. Louis. One of the reasons the Cardinals have instructed Memphis to use Perez and Jason Motte for multiple innings is becacuse that’s the role they’ll have when they make their first appearance in the big-league bullpen. It could be 2009 before Perez has his first taste of regular save opportunities. Should the Cardinals need a closer for need or injury or otherwise … well, you’ve seen this story before.

Young could-be starter pitches way into bullpen. Shines. Creates role. Inherits closer job because of injury. Wouldn’t be surprised if Kyle McClellan would get a look.

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4th Q: Has anyone asked Stan Musial about it?

– Alan Makovsky

DG: “It” would be the rained-out home run continues to elude mine and other’s research. Yes, Musial has been asked. As many of people around Musial as possible have been asked. In the original blog on the subject, there is one of those quotes from Musial. Like the papers themselves, memories have become fuzzy, yellowed, blurred and perhaps incorrect. That’s why the research continues. 

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5th Q: Can we please do away with win/loss records for pitchers? Given the subjectiveness of fielding stats (how many times has a hit been scored as an error, or vice versa) and the variability of run support, how can we take this statistic seriously? Add to this the development of set-up men and closers, and I can’t help but shudder when an announcer states that Mike Mussina just passed Bob Gibson in career wins. Are they serious? Even if it were a valid stat, Gibby did it in fewer games, and pitched approximately FIVE TIMES as many complete games. *Sigh*

If it IS widely held that this is not indicative of a pitcher’s ability, why is it mentioned in nearly every game and every article on pitching?

– Chris, St. Louis

DG: You wouldn’t write for the Fungoes blog would you? I don’t think we’re at that point, but today offers Exhibit 456,923 as to why a pitcher’s win-loss record should always be accompanied with context. Today’s starters are Aaron Harang for Cincinnati and Braden Looper for the Cardinals. Their records:

• Haran 1-3.
• Looper 3-1.

But, Harang brings a 2.76 ERA into the game compared to Looper’s 4.05. Who has been the better pitcher? Clearly Harang by many measures. Whose team is playing better? Clearly Looper’s. The Win-Loss record does serve a purpose for pitchers and should not be ditched merely because so many people put way to much stock in it. (Even, apparently, some Cy Young votes.) It shouldn’t be eliminated. It’s valuable. It’s historic. But it should no longer be a way a pitcher is solely judged.

Besides, 18 is the 20 when it comes to pitchers.

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6th Q: Can anyone from The Post-Dispatch give me an answer why the media in St. Louis was so hard on Scott Rolen? Also I have noticed when other past players have done good, bad or have been injured and come off the disabled list they mention it in The Post-Dispatch. The only place I see Rolen’s name is in the forums getting bashed by so called fans.

– Cora Behnke

DG: There can be some instigators in that there forum, Cora. Best not to get the forum confused with the media. See a few clicks away from the forum there was ample mention of Rolen’s return from the disabled list last weekend. There was also a couple stories in the paper — including one that topped the some of our ’round-baseball coverage — about his offensive contributions those first couple games.

I never saw a harshness directed at Rolen during his time here or afterward. There was certainly fairness. But there was no conspiracy to keep Rolen information out of the coverage — or only relate it with a jaundiced eye.

Rolen’s departure and what led to it was messy, not the coverage of it. 

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7th Q: The Brian Barton and Ryan Ludwick signings have worked out well. Can you give us some background on who should get the credit? Walt Jocketty? Jeff Luhnow? John Mozeliak? Staff-level scouts? Do we have a mole in Cleveland?

– Mike, NYC

DG: Mole? No. But I do hear they have the place bugged.

(Rimshot.) 

Jocketty was long gone and eyeing an offer to join Cincinnati by the time the Cardinals selected Brian Barton in the Rule 5 draft. Barton’s addition came as a result of the Cardinals’ enhanced use of its analytical department. The decision was hardly made using only statistical models and information, but that data did identify Barton as the best player available and then the Cardinals used their scouts and front-office staff to gather information to support or refute that claim. Think of him as the first acquisition of the Mozeliak-Luhnow alloy, the STOUT system the Cardinals talk about.

Way back when he was in college, Ludwick was scouted by Mozeliak. Or he was supposed to be had he played in the game Mozeliak flew out there to watch him play. Ever since, Mozaliak has kept tabs on Ludwick. Under Jocketty’s tenure, Mozeliak led the efforts to sign six-year free agents to the minor-league ball clubs. Ludwick was one of those signings, so the credit goes to Mozeliak.

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8th Q: How’s the little slugger? A lot of flack on ‘my’ forum, on the failed DP (Anthony Reyes/ Aaron Miles). We posted a few photos of the play. Is there a consensus:

1. Did Reyes fire too early (as he says)? Or, in seeing Kennedy so
   close to the base, was he right to fire away?
2. Should Reyes wait, knowing that Miles is supposed to cover?
3. If Miles is covering, is he too far away from the bag (coach put him
   over too far)?
4. Is Miles too slow to get to the bag, or is it just that the ball was
   a hot-shot?

– Frank R.

DG: Little slugger is about to turn 2 on Friday and is doing quite fine, thank you. Bats both, throws both. Still. And I am glad that he’s not yet discovered message boards, because it looks like I took a body blow or two in that discussion. Heard worse. Wrote a longer explanation of the play over at the blog, which I suggest you visit: The Double Play that Wasn’t. The photos help show what was going on, and the reporting helps explain why it was going on. 

1. Fired too early, and was fixated on the wrong target.
2. He should know Miles was covering and throw to that target.
3. Most interesting question of the group. The Cardinals were playing Xavier Nady straight up and that meant that Adam Kennedy started closer to the base than Miles. Kennedy says he rarely covers the base, even in this situation. Why? Mainly because the shortstop has enough time to get to the bag and he has the momentum going toward first base. (Look no further than the 5-6-3 double play the Cardinals turned in Houston.) The Cardinals have switched these assignments before based on personnel and positioning. Remember when Mark Grudzielanek would be the cutoff on plays usually meant for the shorstop? In this case, Miles was the covering infield and Reyes should have known that. Miles and others spoke about ways to make sure such a play doesn’t happen again.
4. Throw was a “hotshot”. That’s not to say Miles couldn’t have been at the bag sooner, there area just a few people involved in the play who doubt he would have had a chance to catch the throw even if he was.

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9th Q: The PostCards Question

Seems like a fitting day to ask this. It is probably easy to find the Cardinals’ highest draft pick — in terms of overall pick — to reach the major leagues, but can you also name the player who was drafted the lowest who went onto a major-league debut with the Cardinals or elsewhere? 

Send your answers to postcards@post-dispatch.com, and the better the answer - the more details - the better chance it will be included in next week’s PCQ Answer.

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Every week during the regular season, The Post-Dispatch’s baseball writer Derrick Goold will answer fans’ emails in a mailbag blog called PostCards, a spin-off of Bird Land. To comment and discuss the mailbag visit the PostCards blog on StlToday.com. To submit questions write postcards@post-dispatch.com or file them as a comment on this blog. With all questions please include your name and hometown.

PostCards will run online exclusively at StlToday.com.

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