Web Search powered by YAHOO! SEARCH
05.28.2008 2:19 am

PostCards with Luhnow II: Pitching profiles, picks, Rasmus, and secret decoder

St. Louis Post-Dispatch

TOWER GROVE — In the second posting of three mailbags with the Cardinals’ vice president and draft director Jeff Luhnow, he fields a variety of questions from readers, ranging from the Rick Porcello lessons to the Anthony Reyes-Colby Rasmus comparisons and concerns.

For a feel of the kind of schedule Luhnow is keeping in the weeks leading up to the draft — June 5 and 6 — consider that from the time we started harvesting reader questions for this twist on the usual PostCards he’s been in St. Louis, Texas, Venezuela, Florida and, yes, possibly New Jersey.

Might be a few more stops in there, but I haven’t had access to his passport.

He isn’t will to spill the “secrets” asked for below, but Luhnow does explore the issue of control as an indicator for pitching prospects and the competitive hard-wiring of pitchers from different regions of the country. Here’s PostCards with Luhnow, Part 2 of a planned trilogy (back Thurs. with the conclusion):

***

Q: What are the needs for the Cardinals going into the draft? I’m sure pitching is always a must, but anything else that the organization is thin on right now?

Chris.

Luhnow: You are correct; pitching is a need every year. We would specifically like to draft and sign a few left handed pitchers to add to our system. Other than that, we will lean towards players at premium positions because they tend to be athletic enough to play anywhere. We want guys who can hit and pitchers who throw strikes.

***

Q: Jeff, how much do you guys look into walks when looking at a college pitcher? It seems like the Cardinals have taken a lot of guys in recent years that have had significant control problems in college, and none of them have really been able to improve that once they turned pro. I think the guy I am mostly referring to with this question is Shooter Hunt. Obviously he has great stuff, but if he isn’t able to figure out the strike zone he won’t amount to much. How much does a guy’s lack of control knock him down on your board?

fewgoodcards (one of the writers at Future Redbirds)

Luhnow: That is an excellent question and one that we are discussing every day in our draft preparation meetings. I won’t comment on Shooter Hunt except to say that he has two plus pitches at least and has been successful in college and in the summer. He will be talked about in all 30 draft rooms.

One thing that you are suggesting is that if a player has control problems in high school or college they will most likely have control problems in pro ball. I tend to agree with that statement, as do most experienced scouts. Having said that, the difference between the metal bat and the wood bat does change how some pitchers approach the opposition. Pitching to contact can be a dangerous strategy against bats with a much larger sweet spot, but can work in pro ball.

A lack of control will knock players down on our board. How much depends on a variety of other factors.

***

Q: Jeff, This question has a negative overtone, but is not meant to be taken negatively: Did the organization learn anything from passing on Rick Porcello last year? Can you explain? Thanks and good luck in the draft.

Chris Grimm

Luhnow: No worries, Chris, this is not the first time I’ve been asked this question nor will it be the last time. We made the decision that we felt was in the best interest of our organization at the time. Every year, I reflect on the prior drafts and think about what we could have done to improve. I also ask each of our scouts to do that regularly. We make adjustments, just like good hitters do in baseball.

To a certain extent, we are playing the odds with the draft. We are going to be right some of the time and wrong some of the time. For us, the odds are based on an extensive analysis of past history coupled with a thorough evaluation of each player. The question about Porcello was never about his current talent or future potential, it was about the cost of signing him relative to the probability of him fulfilling his potential. I will say that nothing we have studied or learned in the past year has made us realize that our analysis or thought process was misleading.

***

Q: I have read all about your busy traveling schedule which involves seeing players at workouts and meeting your scouts in different states. Do you find that pitchers from the South are more aggressive than pitchers from the North? There was a study reported in the Journal of Applied Psychology which focused on MLB players, specifically narrowing it down to the pitchers, to help psychologist have a better understanding of aggression theories. Do you find this could be true?

Mike H.

Luhnow: I have not heard that theory before and really have no idea if it is true or not. I would be skeptical but wouldn’t rule anything out, especially if the experts have studied it. Many scouts believe that pitchers from cold weather regions are less developed and therefore could have more upside relative to their warm region counterparts. That makes some sense, but is an unproven theory. Mike, if you’ve ever walked the streets of Manhattan at lunchtime, you would not have seen a lot of “laid back” people. Somehow I doubt New Yorkers or pitchers from Boston are less aggressive than pitchers from Houston or Los Angeles. I haven’t seen any evidence of this dynamic.

***

Q: Thanks for taking my question. There have been rumors floating around recently from people close to Colby Rasmus that claim that his recent struggles stem from coaches at Memphis telling him to change his swing, so much so, that he’s severely mixed up. Is this true? If so, I honestly can’t believe some of the best baseball minds in the industry would feel the need to change one of the best prospects in baseball. As someone who follows player development with this organization very intently I can’t express how disappointed I am by this (if it is indeed true). Those same people are also claiming that Colby is now unhappy with the organization. First Anthony Reyes, now Colby Rasmus, why would the organization feel the need to change a prospect’s approach after they’ve had so much success? Thank you for your reply. Respectfully.

Matt “Lassie” L.

Luhnow: Lassie, we work with all of our players to make them better. I’m glad you follow our player development and it’s too bad you are disappointed. Colby is a very good player and I suspect he will come out of his current troubles sooner rather than later. I’m not going to talk about any details of what we teach and why with respect to any player, but I will defend our coaches who know what they are doing. They know what a player needs to do to succeed in the big leagues, and that is what we teach.

DG NOTE: Colleague Joe Strauss explored Rasmus’ slow start to his first season in Triple-A this past weekend, and he did offer insight to the “rumors floating around”, including their source and the explanation.

***

Q: First and foremost, thank you Mr. Luhnow for taking this time off from your busy schedule and commit to this weekly assignment of answering questions from your fans (as if you don’t have enough to do already before the draft!) You are known to use the “Moneyball” philosophy in selecting baseball talent. Realizing this, are there any other “unorthodox” approach your department is attempting to use when scouting for, lets say, a pitcher? Being that there are several aspects when evaluating a pitcher; from his mechanics to the velocity and control, to their mental adjustments. What are the other “secrets”you use to determine who actually has the potential to match your expectations, or for that matter, possibly scout a player that surpasses your wildest dream?

Jason Hamilton

Luhnow: Jason, I could tell you all our secrets but then I would have to hire you so you wouldn’t share them with anybody else. Actually, we do try to gain every edge we can and some of the stuff that we do is unique, but at the end of the day it comes down to trusting the expert judgment of our scouts. If we properly hire, develop and deploy our scouts we will have an advantage over those clubs that don’t do this as well.

***

Every week during the regular season, The Post-Dispatch’s baseball writer Derrick Goold will answer fans’ emails in a mailbag blog called PostCards, a spin-off of Bird Land. Cardinals vice president Jeff Luhnow agreed to answer a batch of questions submitted last week, and his answers have been reproduced here in three different entries on the blog.

To comment and discuss the mailbag visit the PostCards blog on StlToday.com. To submit questions write PostCards@post-dispatch.com or file them as a comment on this blog. With all questions please include your name and hometown.

PostCards will run online exclusively at StlToday.com.

-30-

1 Star2 Stars3 Stars4 Stars5 Stars (16 votes, average: 2.69 out of 5)
Loading ... Loading ...
11 comments

Comments are closed.

If baseball’s post-season is a crapshoot (and it is), then the amateur draft is using a Ouija board! It’s fascinating to read at least some of what goes into the draft… it appears that the Cardinals are trying to take as much “guess-work” out of the process as possible, combining statistical analysis with “eyeball” scouting.

Thanks to Mr. Luhnow for answering (as much as he can) the fans’ questions. Good stuff, DG!

— The Ol Goaler
8:40 am May 28th, 2008

Great, so Luhnow starts out by admitting that he’d like to get some left-handed pitching in the draft for the Cardinals’ system… Excuse me, but what about LAST YEAR? He passed over Aaron Poreda (a 6′6″ college lefty who can pound 98 mph fastballs in the strike zone with great movement) at pick #18 in favor of Peter Kozma, an unproven high school shortstop. The Chicago White Sox were waiting with open arms at #25 for Poreda, who they’re touting as their #1 prospect in the minors already. Poreda absolutely destroyed the Pioneer league last summer and is doing very well at high-A already this year. Yet another brilliant move by the Cardinals to shore up their deepest need year in and year out. Can anyone name the last true power lefty that pitched for the Cardinals? Yep… didn’t think so!

— SMH
10:17 am May 28th, 2008

Aaron Poreda was the sixth college lefthander taken in the draft last summer, and is a good name to know — another of the after-picks to watch. Ozzie Guillen remarked this spring about Poreda: “If it was my decision, believe me, I would bring him up here right away.” That said, I’d like to see more about him than just his statistics, because a good look at several games of his might tell us a bit more than the scouting video about the Cardinals interest in him. Nick Schmidt, of Arkansas, went a few picks ahead of Poreda, and as been mentioned before was someone the Cardinals looked at before settling on taking his teammate, Jess Todd.

The pitcher the Cardinals planned to take in the first round: Blake Beaven. But he went 17th, to Texas. Beavan is 4-1 with a 2.90 ERA, pitching in the same league that Pete Kozma is hitting.

Last lefty power pitcher? Why … he’s your starting center fielder.

Tim Melville is the “anchor” picture on Baseball America’s Web site today, and local author Rob Rains has a profile on him for subscribers.

dg
-30-

— Derrick Goold
12:22 pm May 28th, 2008

i had no problem with them passing on poreda. you failed to mention that his 98 mph fastball only has 38 strikeouts in 55.1 IP. the reason he wasn’t drafted higher is b/c he has no secondary pitches, and that will catch up to him at the higher levels or he will be forced to become a reliever. the only reason he is the white sox’s top prospect is b/c they have the worst farm system in baseball. he would be borderline top 10 in the cardinals’ system.

the pick you are ripping on, pete kozma, is having a great year in the midwest league and projects to be an everyday shortstop. you will get no complaints from me on him. i would have no problem saying he is a better prospect than poreda.

— fewgoodcards
1:26 pm May 28th, 2008

Aaron Poreda throws really hard…but most of the time its straight (for a LHP) and he has no secondary pitch to rely on.

He could develop…or he could be Jeremy Affeldt.

It seems Hits per 9 and Strikeouts per 9 are very big inputs on the stats based draft model that Luhnow uses. So both Hunt RHP and Friedrich LHP have to be the early favorite for #13…both also have solid Summer resumes that the Cards tend to look for…success vs the wood.

I am a big fan of taking LHP..but you have to sacrfice some velocity and stuff to take them. Its not passing on Poredo or Schmidt that should be the issue…its taking guys like Thomas Eager (projected as middle reliever) instead of adding a LHP.

Cards do a very good job of drafting power RH arm’s….but if they have one flaw its being able to find LHP’s who project to be anything more then situational guys.

Outside of Jaime Garica..and maybe Nick Addition…the system is nearly bare of LHP who show the ability to start and finish games.

Brad Furnish being chosen of Brett Anderson to me was more of a “What Are You Doing?” moment then passing on Porcello

Oh well…great as always Derrick!

— Picklefork
1:26 pm May 28th, 2008

DG, what are you hearing about the pick at 13? Any new names we haven’t really heard? Have you heard who they have set up workouts with? Thanks.

— fewgoodcards
1:31 pm May 28th, 2008

My guess would be Christian Friedrich from Eastern Kentucky. He pitches at 94 with a big break curve ball and an above average change-up. He is a lefty.

— allen
3:16 pm May 28th, 2008

Is there any hope that, T-ball, Tony La you to sleep, baseball can end? All this Blah Blah talk about resting Ludwick, letting lefties get AB’s, Izzy I can get a out, and the all important lets bring our young guys up slow baseball is just insane.

So from the top,… Ludwick 29yrs old has proven he is ready, PLAY HIM– ALOT! Izzy is washed up and ready for votes from the HOF, RETIRE! Duncan is all confused, 1B to OF, bat 2nd thru 7th, hurt not hurt, TRADE or SEND DOWN! Kennedy,…let him sell beer at the park, or be a casino host. Barton, 10 drunks down in a Madison bar atleast know he should have never been given a MLB uniform. The team has 3 ready to play middle infielders — Miles, Ryan, and Izturis, so call up or trade for one more. (Duncan should atleast bring a trade of a less washed up one then Kennedy) Outfielders they have plenty and in AAA as well,.. bring them up and let Barton park thier cars.

All this talk of draft and what they can or can’t do at MLB level is just plain talk because T-ball is not going to let them ever play on a regular basis. So I guess my real question is how will the Cards ever know if they have the next Al Kaline to Al Pujols babe if he only plays when T-ball thinks it’s best for him? I sure do long for the days to watch a Cardinal game and see the same eight guys take the field three days in a row.

The draft talk for St. Louis makes a really good AAA club, just ask Mather I bet he can’t wait to have ten more like him that never get called up. Or better yet send Villone down, I think they are bringing him along to fast! eh?

— James
3:16 pm May 28th, 2008

Another possibility with the 39th (sandwich pick) would be one of the top high school lefties in California: Mike Montgomery, LHP, Hart HS, Newhall, Calif. He\’s 6\’4\” 180lbs with a fastball that tops out at 94 with a sharp-breaking curve ball and a change up suitable for producing groundballs. I believe he\’s recruited for college somewhere in Cali– but could be signed away.
And BTW, I’m no Tony apologist– but this take that Tony never gives rookies a chance is simply not true: Witness: Albert, Schumacher, Duncan, Ank, McClellan, Reyes (too many chances!, and now Chris Perez…. Yeah, I wish Mather was there but my choice would be to send out Ryan– the guy just doesn’t play smart.

— allen
4:07 pm May 28th, 2008

How cool is it that Pujols broke the Big M*c sign? A is for Albert! Actually, it’s high time that they change the name to Albertville (except McDonald’s is probably a better sponsor than a French ski resort).

— Fuhrig
10:28 am May 29th, 2008

Pages: [1] 2 » Show All