TOWER GROVE – Naturally, Albert Pujols comes off the disabled list this afternoon to have (ho hum) another four-hit (yawn) day and (no big whoop) drive in the go-ahead run seconds ago here in the ninth inning.
So if you had Pujols in the pool about which would return first — the MVP or the P-D mailbag — you win. But only by five plate appearances.
After a sabbatical of sorts to get the inbin good and loaded for an afternoon spree of answering questions, PostCards returns this afternoon with a handful of questions. And more to come. Excellent ones. Timeless ones. Chris Duncan ones. But most interesting of all — contract ones. In fact, a strong number of questions this week had to do with locking up the current players on the roster, from Rick Ankiel to Ryan Ludwick to … the current Mr. Cardinal, Pujols.
Should the Cardinals work now to make sure Pujols is signed later, and forever?
As always, questions can be asked at PostCards@post-dispatch.com. Will be back with another mailbag shortly. Because, after all, this a contract year, so on with PostCards:
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Q: Aloha, sir. Albert Pujols is such a great player and the heart of the Cardinals. His free market value is probably well above what the Cardinals have historically been able to offer. The only thing I can think of is a “lifetime” contract, something that would keep him St. Louis for his entire playing career and then use his dedicated approach as a coach once he retires. Are talks extending his contract underway?
– Keith Maxfield, Honolulu
DG: Aloha, backatcha. There are still three years after this season remaining on Pujols contract, so we’re probably at least one season from there being a discussion of an extension. Think: After 2009. Here is the breakdown of Pujols contract ahead:
- 2008 … $16 million
- 2009 … $16 million
- 2010 … $16 million
- 2011 … $16 million option, $5 million buyou
It wouldn’t make sense for the Cardinals to approach Pujols about an extension until there is only one guaranteed year remaining on the contract. Yet, the Cardinals have to be ever aware of two things. First: Health. Pujols’ health, as much as his production, will factor into any decision the Cardinals make. It would make sense to lock him up for the rest of his career, but the Cardinals have to be protected against a known injury that could leave them exposed to a heavy contract and an absent contributor. Second: His peer group.
As I write this answer Pujols is at the plate, facing the Tigers in his return from the disabled list, and there at first base is one of the Cardinals’ MVP’s few peers. Detroit signed Miguel Cabrera to an eight-year, $152 million deal this past spring. Given that Cabrera is a few years younger than Pujols and not the defensive player Pujols is — especially not now that they are playing the same position — that still offers a glimpse of what Pujols can command. Set to sign similar deals before Pujols’ next turn are Prince Fielder and Ryan Howard. Howard being the most intriguing because he too has an MVP, like Pujols, is actually older than Pujols, and is not the complete player that Pujols is. When Howard went for his recent arbitration case — he won a $10-million decision — reports had the slugger looking for well above the average annual salary from the $100-million deal Pujols currently is playing on.
Howard wanted to use Pujols to set his salary. Soon, the favor will be returned.
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Q: Eventually, Colby Rasmus joins this team (2009?)– and although Tony La Russa has found time for five outfielders– and that’s a typical number for a team to carry– who goes when Colby joins the team? Does Joe Mather become an infield option at third and first? With Brendan Ryan joining the mix with Cesar Izturis and Aaron Miles in the middle infield– leaving Adam Kennedy as odd man out? What’s your best guess? Who becomes expendable in the outfield? At this point, I’d have to say Brian Barton — although his speed & bat are assets I’d hate to lose. I can’t see Cleveland letting him go without some significant compensation.
– Allen
DG: Back when I was on ice and I would ask him about an upcoming roster knot, Blues general manager Larry Pleau would say: “These things have a way of working themselves out.” It’s blunt, but true. By injury or by performance, roster jams work themselves out when it’s time. The answer is always obvious once the time is right. (Though maybe we didn’t see the Randy Flores going on the DL thing as the move that would open a spot for Pujols, but I digress … )
You have the infield situation read about right, though Izturis is only signed through this season and Kennedy is signed through 2009. There will be room for Rasmus when he’s ready. No doubt. That could mean the Cardinals will have traded Duncan or an injury opens the way. That could mean that Mather is on the team, cast in the Scott Spiezio role and another outfielder has been moved down or elsewhere. How GM John Mozeliak has handled other decisions tells us that he sees Brian Barton as an asset — one the Cardinals could use this year and beyond or use as a trading chip once he comes into their control after this season as a Rule 5 pick. It’s all about developing, improving and controlling assets.
And Rasmus by 2009? Hardly. Rasmus by September. At the latest.
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Q: When was the last time the Cardinals had a left fielder who possessed a good, accurate throwing arm? I’m trying to remember players who gave you a chance to throw out runners at second, third, especially home plate! I’ve got to go way back in my memory bank … what are your thoughts?
– Roger Schutt, Grass Valley, Calif.
DG: Any time Skip Schumaker starts in left field, there’s an accurate arm in left field. Otherwise, Ryan Ludwick is an above-average defensive player, and his arm fits that description. Before them … Most recently have been what La Russa once described as “playable.”
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Q: What are the chances of the Cardinals signing Ryan Ludwick and Rick Ankiel to long term deals this season? I believe that Scott Boras is Ankiel’s agent and has a history of playing hard ball with owners. Do the Cardinals have a good relationship with Boras to make a long term deal? I would hate to see the Cardinals lose them to other teams I also believe Ludwick and Ankiel have shown they are above average Major league quality players and I hope they attempt to sign them soon.
– Terry O.
DG: During the season is less likely than sometime this offseason, especially when it comes to Ankiel. The center fielder will have his first real crack at arbitration as an everyday player this winter. Last year, the Cardinals and Boras prepped their arguments for arbitration before settling on a deal that could make Ankiel a $1-million player this year. Their arguments for the unique situation were interesting:
- Cardinals likened Ankiel to several backup catchers.
- Boras likened Ankiel to Gary Matthews Jr., fresh from a release.
This winter there will be more tangible examples for both sides to climb to, and it’s likely that arbitration will do what it’s designed to do: Force the teams to come to an agreement before ever reaching the hearing. That agreement, history says, will probably be a multi-year deal that plants Ankiel in right field as a complement to Rasmus for several years to come.
Ludwick is, well, for lack of a better way to describe it … he’s one step behind Ankiel. Ludwick will reach arbitration eligibility this winter for the first time. It wouldn’t be unusual for the Cardinals to use their right to assure a one-year deal with Ludwick and the chance to see what he does for an encore.
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Q: Has Tony La Russa considered batting Albert Pujols clean-up? Use him as protection for our other guys. Not bad leading off the second either, he’ll pound his share of solo home runs. La Russa is losing run production batting him 4th since the 1 and 2 guys aren’t getting on enough. Its too easy to walk Pujols with 2 outs. Batting 4th he’ll either be leading off or have guys on-base, it will make him harder to work around resulting in more runs, something the Cardinals need to keep up.
– Tom Lampe.
DG: Is Tom Lampe an alias for Joe Strauss? This past spring training, La Russa asked the beat writers — rhetorically, I think — what they would do if he let them make out the lineup card. Some were eager to present their answers. The incomparable El Diablo made one request: Bat Pujols fourth. If given the chance, Strauss would make Pujols the cleanup hitter and see what happens. His argument is that it will offer Pujols more chances to hit with runners in scoring position — or, as you argue Tom, lead off the inning with a chance to swing or take his base. Either way it works for the Cardinals.
La Russa counters with the argument that he wants his best hitter to bat in the first inning, no matter what, and that he hits the pitcher No. 8 to then create the illusion that Pujols is the cleanup hitter the second time through the lineup. Since the end of the 2003 season, Pujols has a total of ONE at-bat at cleanup. For kicks, I looked up his numbers in the four spot:
237 games … 883 AB … 180 runs … 51 HR … 211 RBI
120 walks … 117 strikeouts … .323/.406/.582
My opinion? Simple: If Pujols isn’t batting third, somebody has to. Name who that will be. I can’t think of anybody better than the guy who is already there.
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Q: A question for you and/or Jeff Luhnow: I assume that when drafting a player, the team has some timetable assigned to them for development. “Best player” and shortest development don’t always mean the same thing or identify the same player. It seems clear that short development projections for players are likely to lead to more direct ties to immediate needs, but what leads the team to draft beyond that? Jeff spoke about needing left-handers in the system, so how many is that likely to mean and at what level (round). Enjoy your writing. Thanks.
– Sportsman (from the park)
DG: Thanks for the note. “Best player” is the standard rule of thumb when it comes to drafting in the baseball draft. Rarely do you hear a team drafting for need, though it did come up twice with the Cardinals this past draft — lefty pitchers, middle infield bat — and it was mentioned with the top pick as some believed Tampa Bay should go for a catcher to fill a need in their organization. That said, it would be wise for use to redefine the toolset that we usually assign to players.
Sure there will always be Speed, Arm, Power, Average, Glove. We’ve talked previously about Signability as a sixth tool. And maybe there should also be a seventh and eighth: Advancement and Ceiling. That can be a tiebreaker, especially when looking at early picks. Some teams will value “closer to the majors” over “higher ceiling” because of the wish to have a player who advances rapidly. Clearly, Ryan Zimmerman and Evan Longoria represent players who have both of those tools. The Cardinals believe Brett Wallace, for example, has plus Advancement. They took Daryl Jones a few years ago because he has plus Ceiling.
Eight tools. I think that would about cover it.
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Q: Considering all the outfielders we presently have, and the outfield was not his original position, which I asume is very hard to learn at the major-league level, I feel like management would be doing Chris Duncan a favor by sending him to the American League or maybe a National League team that needs a first baseman.
– Steve T
DG: If Duncan puts up the power numbers he has in previous half seasons since his arrival in the majors then is he has tremendous value to the Cardinals as a lefthanded source of “damage”. But, you’re right. The outfield is getting crowded. First base is taken. There’s no designated hitter — save for this one week a year — and … well, it will behoove the Cardinals to at least consider what they could get in trade for Duncan, just as they should consider that for some of the other extra outfielders they have and, of course, Anthony Reyes.
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Every week during the regular season, The Post-Dispatch’s baseball writer Derrick Goold will answer fans’ emails in a mailbag blog called PostCards, a spin-off of Bird Land. To comment and discuss the mailbag visit the PostCards blog on StlToday.com. To submit questions write PostCards@post-dispatch.com or file them as a comment on this blog. With all questions please include your name and hometown.
PostCards will run online exclusively at StlToday.com.
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