TOWER GROVE — The C.C. Sabathia era in Milwaukee was barely a few innings old this evening and the ink wasn’t yet dry on the news reports of the Cubs acquiring Rich Harden when one of the Brewers’ broadcasters said something to this effect:

“Your move Cardinals.”

The jockeying for supremacy in the National League Central bounded out of the standings and into the front offices the past two days, as the Cardinals chief rivals added potential aces via trade. Sabathia is the reigning AL Cy Young Award winner and Harden, while an injury risk, is capable of brilliance. Considering the Cardinals will also add a new arm to their rotation this week, you can say the punctuation in the NL Central race has changed.

The Brewers and Cubs got exclamation points.

The Cardinals got a question mark.

Later this evening in Citizens Bank Park, Mark Mulder will return to the rotation for the first time since September and try for a third time to pitch after a shoulder injury began to erode his career. That’s the news of the day for the Cardinals. The news of the week is the Arms Race in the central. And that leads to a question to ponder. Could the Cardinals have made those trades?

That question landed in the inbox several times over the past few days, and it deserves more exploration than the mailbag. It’s worth an entry all its own. So, while we all ponder that — please peruse those deals (MLB.com has them charted at the bottom of this page) and answer for yourself — here are the other questions from Cardinals Nation.

That is, if you don’t mind me calling you a Nation.

On with PostCards:

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Q: I am having a “discussion” with a friend who happens to be a BoSox Fan … I know. I can hardly believe it. The point of contention is that Boston has no right to the status of claiming to be ‘a nation’. I am contending that Cardinal Nation was the first of these fan bases which could claim this kind of status due to KMOX and the ability to pickup that radio signal from so far away. Additionally, Cardinal fans have long hailed from many Midwestern states and also many parts of the south. I have stood in line for tickets with folks from Mississippi and Texas, Illinois to South Dakota. When I moved to Montana in 1999 imagine my surprise to find that a small base of fans actually ALREADY LIVED in the tiny town of Choteau, Montana.

Perhaps it was Rob Rains who first published our claim to Cardinal “Nation” in 2002, but it seems that it should be Boston Rowboat. So guru of research, what can you find on the beginnings of the term Nation as applied to a baseball franchise? Please enlighten us!

– Timothy R. Barksdale, Choteau, Mont.

DG: The second edition of Rob’s book, Cardinal Nation, was published in 2003 and is a textbook for the history of the organization and some of its best moments and best players. It does not answer your question. I always thought that Glenn Stout, the editor of such books as Yankees Century and the Best American Sports Writing series, had a good take on the “Nation” tag when I spoke to him a few years ago. He said he judges the crown-jewel franchises — the ones that have the blend of success and brand recognition, that in my estimation would be “Nation” worthy – by the crowd-shot rule.

Whenever you see a shot of a crowd — a march, a parade, the Vatican, Lollapalooza, etc. — how many baseball caps do you see with that logo on it. Yankees? Sure. Red Sox? Darn right. Cardinals? Yep. Cubs? Certainly. Minnesota Twins? Not so much. Mariners? Depends on the scene. The teams who pass the crowd-shot rule have a claim on the “Nation” title.

But where did it start?

My research into the subject have come upon some frayed ends of the story and some deadends. The guru ran into a gu-rut. I seem to recall Washington’s football and its fanbase has long been known as “Redskins Nation” or “Redskin Nation”. Seems that it was later appropriated by the Cardinals and then onto Red Sox. The Cardinals had the geographic claim to it because for decades they were the farthest team west and the farthest team south in Major League Baseball. The reach of KMOX broadened the appeal, from the bluegrass of Kentucky to the purple mountains of Colorado. In today’s brave new world we can map a nation with different means. I Googled ’em. Here’s the tallies:

1. “Red Sox Nation” … 1,110,000
2. “Cardinal Nation” or “Cardinals Nation” or “Redbird Nation” … 74,030
3. “Yankee(s) Nation” … 48,800
4. “Cubs Nation” … 9,260
5. “Redskin(s) Nation” … 7,620

The Yankees, never one to sit idly by as Boston hogs a marketing device, has counterpunched the “Red Sox Nation” notion with T-shirts that read, “Yankee Universe.” Perhaps the Cardinals should annex the middleground. Cardinals World, anyone? Cardinals Globe?

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Q: I love all of your work; I’ve been reading it since you were the beat-man for the Blues. Thanks for the opportunity to ask questions. My dad and I have been having an on-going discussion about Albert Pujols. He argues that he is not hitting in the clutch like he has in previous years, particularly when the game is on the line; situations where the tying or go-ahead runners are on base, late innings, with two outs, etc. I realize there are statistics for each of these situations, i.e., avg. with RISP, game-winning RBI, etc. However, is there any statistic that puts all of these together to get an idea of who on the team is really providing offense in critical situations? To me, game-winning RBI can be misleading as — correct me if I’m wrong — a player can
get credited for a game-winning RBI on a solo HR in the first inning when the final is 1-0, or from say an RBI single to make the game 6-0 nothing in the 7th and then the other team comes back but loses 6-5. Make sense what I’m after here?

– Adam, Apple Creek, Mo.

DG: Thanks much. Been awhile since I laced up the skates, so to speak. That new chap has been on the beat longer and better than I ever was. Your question makes total sense, but the answer isn’t nearly as clear. “Clutch” is the alchemy of stats. Some swear it exists and that they can take gobs of numbers, spin them through some fancy calculations, and make clutch shine. Others call bunk and believe “clutch” doesn’t exist.

I believe it does. No doubt.

It may not be that “clutch” players perform better in situations when the game is on the line, but there are players who certainly don’t perform as well in the “clutch”. Call them crumblers. They sabotage themselves. The existence of “clutch”, to me, is prove by the absence of it. Statistically, however, the closest alloy of the numbers you describe is RISP/2 outs and with ESPN’s “close and late”. The site describes the latter thusly:

Close And Late - results in the 7th inning or later with the batting team either ahead by one run, tied or with the potential tying run at least on deck.

The Cardinals’ batting average leaders (min. 10 AB) with RISP/2 outs are:

1. Skip Schumaker … .290
2. Aaron Miles … .280
3. Rick Ankiel … .278
4. Troy Glaus … .262
5. Adam Kennedy … .261
6. Albert Pujols … .261

The Cardinals “close and late” leaders (min. 10 AB):

1. Aaron Miles … .400
2. Skip Schumaker … .354
3. Albert Pujols … .333
4. Yadier Molina … .316
5. Brendan Ryan … 316

It’s hard to really make much of these statistics because they need context. What is the team average in such situations? For the Cardinals it’s .255 RISP/2, fifth-best in the league, and .239 “close and late”, 13th in the NL. (Pittsburgh it should be noted is hitting a remarkable .292 RISP/2, way ahead of any other NL team.) So, the five players listed above for “close and late” soar above the rest of the team, but Pujols’ average is less than his overall average. So, does that mean he is less clutch than, say, Miles or Ryan? Colorado catcher Chris Iannetta leads the NL (min. 25 PA) in RISP/2 with a .455 average. His rep soooo clutch, so you knew that. Philadelphia’s Greg Dobbs, who was burned in tonight’s game by a pitching change, leads the NL (min. 25 PA) in “close and late” with a .448 average, and second is Cubs’ third baseman Aramis Ramirez, at .419. Clutch is his middle name.

No, clutch is an elusive state for statistics. It’s more an anecdotal adjective, one that defines a player by his actions and his memorable moments. Derek Jeter is Mr. Clutch, right? Well, he’s a .343 hitter RISP/2 over the past three seasons and a .304 “close and late” hitter. Alex Rodriguez? Not so clutch, you say.

He’s .311 and .294, respectively. And his slugging percentage are a 100-points better than either of Jeter’s in the same situations. Clutch is in the eye of the beholder.

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Q: What if any future is there for Adam Kennedy? He had four extra-base hits in 149 ABs, as of June 13. (DG Note: He has 13 extra-base hits in 210 ABs, now, and a .281 average with a .357 slugging.) He wasn’t signed for power, but he hadn’t been getting on or delivering much of anything. He woke up for a few weeks this spring but (started) slipping rapidly back to 2007’s low standard. Does he survive the season without getting released? Is there any chance he’ll be back next season? How long will the team stick with him? It’s a sad end, but it seems inevitable.

– Frank Fuhrig, Arlington, Va.

DG: He certinaly survives the season. Next season is a question. What’s happened in the past couple weeks is Kennedy has found some success in a reduced role, one where he shares starts with Aaron Miles and Brendan Ryan and, get this, appears comfortable doing so. Kennedy made the point earlier this season that he hasn’t been a platoon player in his career, but fully expects to be as long as he’s a Cardinal. That took some getting used to, and he had to figure out to produce without guaranteed playing time. He also had to stop thinking every at-bat was his chance to earn his next at-bat. Some of his better recent games have come when he’s entered off the bench (think: Boston; this past weekend vs. Chicago). That’s enough to keep him in the rotation, if not even earn him an additional start in the short-term.

This is also clear: His defense this season has been good enough to keep him in the lineup when his bat has sagged. That was not the case, not at all, last season.

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Q: What, in your opinion, is the primary reason teams don’t do as well playing out of town as they do at home? Hostile crowds? Not getting to bat last? Sleeping in unfamiliar beds? Partying too late? Diminished effort compared to playing in front of the home folks?

– Barry Cleveland

DG: This echoes of a discussion in the press box the other day. It’s a question that fits the Cardinals in this way: How do they play so well on the road and have these, well, lapses at home. Some have hypothesized that the Cardinals lose an edge at home because they are beloved, where as on the road they are the Little Team Mocked, the Unexpected Contender, So Shove It.

Let’s take your questions and rate them on a scouts scale, where 20 is “not so likely” and 80 is “smoking gun”.

Hostile crowds? (30 — it’s the big leagues.)

Not getting to bat last? (70)

Sleeping in unfamiliar beds? (50 — if you include unfamiliar everything, from hotel room, to airplane, to clubhouse, and back.)

Partying too late? (45 — it’s the big leagues.)

Diminished effort compared to playing in front of the home folks? (30 — ditto.)

The it gets talked about the more answers will bubble up in the conversation. There is something to be said for home success and road struggles across the league being reflective of parity. If there aren’t many things that separate teams and their talent in the National League, then location (esp. batting last and all that goes with it) could mean the difference.

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Q: In an article on Sporting News website the day of the draft Sean Deveney listed Brett Wallace as one he thinks could be in the majors by next spring. That brings me to my first question, what is the time left on Troy Glaus’ contract? I’ve never seen Wallace play. One thing I’ve read today is his defense is a little suspect. What is your opinion?

– Michael B., Castalian Springs, Tenn.

DG: Ah, my old Slidell, La., competition, Sean Deveney. Shared a few Big Kahuna’s and Rocky’s place on Pontchartrain with him back in the days of vying for the latest Chris Duhon/Torris Bright scoop. Always nice to see his name pop up when cracking the covers of the Charlotte-based Sporting News. Here is what Deveney wrote, in this article, about Wallace:

Wallace’s favorite movie is The Natural, which is fitting because he’s as pure a young hitter as you’ll find. … His swing is odd, but he controls it and has a knack for getting on base-he had 45 walks and 14 hit-by-pitches this year. He’s big, but he lost 25 pounds before the season and moved from first to third base, adding 16 stolen bases in 20 attempts. His bat more than makes up for any fielding issues and, with his swing, he could be in the big leagues next spring.  

Glaus’ contract keeps him a Cardinal through the 2009 season. It was originally an option, but as part of the deal with Toronto, the Cardinals wanted certainty that Glaus would exercise that option. Wallace by spring? Well, he’ll probably be in big-league spring training next year. That wouldn’t be a stretch. But the Cardinals have him earmarked to finish this year in High-A Palm Beach and start next year at Double-A Springfield. He’ll hit his way up from there. Wouldn’t be shocked if he stays at third base (he’s athletic enough and seems determined to do so) and follows the pace of promotion set by Clayton Mortensen, who was drafted in 2007 and is already in Triple-A.

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Q: Sent from my iPhone.

– Jerry M.

DG: Show off.

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Q: Last year we had a great bullpen and the starters struggled. Even recognizing recent injuries among the starters, the situation is rather starkly reversed. What is the situation with Russ Springer? Please elaborate. What is your evaluation of Kyle McClellan’s previous troubles? Ryan Franklin and Randy Flores were struggling, too. About Jason Isringhausen, we all have our opinions.

– Vianden, Tryon, N.C.

DG: One of the elements of a sturdy bullpen has traditionally been known roles. The Cardinals have been without that really since Jason Isringhausen moved out of the closer’s job. Sure Ryan Franklin is the closer, but before him … ? Springer has pitched well recently in a setup role. McClellan, who will have his hiccups (like any reliever), continues to be deployed in late-inning/non-ninth save situations, often against the muscle of the order. Rookie Chris Perez has floated a bit, from role to role, recently being asked to handle multiple innings. And so on.

Internally, there is a sense that if/when Isringhausen returns to the closer role the others will fall into place again. Roles will be clear. Relievers will thrive.

I mentioned something about this in the article from Tuesday’s paper, but thought it was worth exploring further. Sure enough: The Cardinals are not only the one team with a winning record in the National League whose bullpen ERA (BERA) is higher than its rotation ERA (RERA), they are the only team in the NL with a lower RERA than BERA. The proof, from the NL Central and NL winning teams:

• Cardinals … 4.13 RERA, 4.22 BERA … or +0.09
• Milwaukee … -0.13
• Cubs … -0.33
• Pittsburgh … -1.08
• Cincinnati … -1.30
• Houston … -0.89
• Philadelphia … -1.70 (yowza, Brad Lidge)
• NY Mets … -0.21
• Arizona … -0.37

Interesting. Not conclusive. But interesting.

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Questions permitting, every week during the regular season, The Post-Dispatch’s baseball writer Derrick Goold will answer fans’ emails in a mailbag blog called PostCards, a spin-off of Bird Land. To comment and discuss the mailbag visit the PostCards blog on StlToday.com. To submit questions write PostCards@post-dispatch.com or file them as a comment on this blog. With all questions please include your name and hometown.

PostCards will run online exclusively at StlToday.com.

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