SOUTH GRAND — So much of what the Cardinals consider doing and end up doing this offseason to improve their roster will be watched and judged through the Chris Carpenter prism.
When Carpenter is healthy, so are the Cardinals’ chances.
When he is not … Well, that is the question presented to the Cardinals this season as they choose whether they will build a team on the hope that Carpenter won’t be limited by the nettlesome nerves in his shoulder or build a team with the depth to handle his potential absence. That is also the theme of a few questions posed in today’s mailbag. Carpenter has a role in the first two questions asked, and then the latest edition of PostCards spins into talking about Jake Peavy and the payroll, a prospect and a new position, Scott Spiezio and his whereabouts, and Albert Pujols and Cooperstown.
That last subject is one I brought up.
Remember, PostCards aims to be weekly during the offseason. So write PostCards@post-dispatch.com with any of your questions. Or, visit any of the links mentioned below.
No transposition needed. On with PostCards:
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Q: How does Albert Pujols’ surgery compare to the cleanup procedure that Chris Carpenter had during 2007 before resorting to the replacement surgery (a few) months later? Why does this feel like deja vu?
– Frank Fuhrig, Virginia
DG: The Carpenter-Pujols comparisons began this past spring training when the team doctor told three of us that the tear in Pujols’ right elbow is more severe than the one that led to Carpenter’s Tommy John surgery in 2007. Mr. Fuhrig has the chronology right: Carpenter had surgery to clean up bone spurs on his elbow and a few months later at the reconstructive surgery. Like Carpenter, Pujols has bone spurs in his elbow and an accumulation of arthritis in there, all near the torn ligament.
And that is where the comparison ends.
After hearing the details of Pujols’ surgery, I thought the same thing. Could this surgery hasten the need for a second surgery? Could it have made the ligament’s condition more precarious? Didn’t Pujols decline surgery a year ago to avoid a surgery that begets another surgery? So, I asked — asked several people. When team doctor George Paletta went into transpose Pujols’ nerve in the elbow, he did not go near the structure of spurs and arthritis in the elbow. Pujols asked about having the spurs remove, but the decision was made then — as it was discussed during spring training — that there was no need to upset the structure of things in his elbow. It’s probably best to keep together what could be keeping together the elbow, the doctor said.
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Q: Like every Cardinal fan I pray that Chris Carpenter will be healthy and in Cy Young form next year. But like every Cardinal fan, I have witnessed what happened with Mark Mulder. My question is about Carpenter’s sizable salary ($14M in ‘09, $14.5M in ‘10, $15M in ‘11, club option for ‘12), if God forbid he fails to recover from these nerve issues. Are we on the hook for that money, no matter what? Are there certain circumstances that would negate the contract? Retirement, medical issues, etc.? I would hate to see us handcuffed for the next few years if Carp can’t stay healthy.
– Mark G., St. Louis
DG: Yep. On the hook. No matter what. That contract is signed, sealed, delivering. Even if Carpenter is not. The recent chatter about Jake Peavy has brought this into focus.
The Cardinals sure could use a pitcher like Peavy — and who couldn’t? — to strengthen a rotation, but also to provide assurance that Carpenter is a bonus not a necessity to contend. But adding Peavy to the Cardinals payroll would create a thickening of salaries in the rotation. Consider the three pitchers the Cardinals have signed through 2012 (if you include options) and what the salaries of the four pitchers would be come the next presidential election.
PITCHER … 2009 … 2010 … 2011 … 2012
Carpenter … $14m … $14.5m … $15m … $15m
Wainwright … $2.6m … $4.7m … $6.5m … $9m
Lohse … $7.1m … $8.9m … $11.9m … $11.9m
Peavy … $8m … $15m … $16m … $17m
TOTALS … $31.7m … $43.1m … $49.4m … $52.9m
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Q: Could David Freese play second base or shortstop?
– Altoro2
DG: Freese, the St. Louis native acquired from San Diego for Jim Edmonds, blossomed as a power hitter in Triple-A this past summer, adding to a crowded scene at third base. There’s plenty of reasons for Freese to find another position to play — Troy Glaus ahead of him, Brett Wallace behind — but that position isn’t likely to be second or shortstop. A few weeks ago on Bernie Miklasz’s radio show (1380 AM, in St. Louis), Freese said he’s often asked if he can play second base and he joked that it would be tough to fold his 6-foot-2, 217-pound frame into the middle infield. No, it looks like if he’s going to play another position, it’s going to be outfield. But here’s betting he gets a shot at third.
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Q: Since you like crunching numbers, can you give me what would have been the win totals of the starting staff had the Cards held 80 percent of the leads turned to the bullpen?
– Harry W. Greene, Florida
DG: “Like” is such a strong word. But I’ll see your challenge and raise you a blog entry. The week after the season ended, I took a look at a variety of what-if scenarios. One of them was related to your question: What if … Games Were 7 Innings Long? It was basically a rumination on how many leads the Cardinals handed to the bullpen, and how the standings would have looked if the game ended right then. And there. The Cardinals led 87 games after the seventh inning — the most in the league.
Your question focuses the research.
You’ll forgive if I don’t crunch something other than numbers by trying to go game-by-game through the regular season and charting the leads handed over. There’s a quicker way to get a snapshot. The Cardinals’ starters combined for 955 innings this season, or 5.9 innings a game, roughly 6. The Cardinals had the lead after the sixth inning in 87 games. Eighty percent of that would be 70 wins. So, the bullpen would go 70-17 in the above question’s scenario.
The Cardinals actually went … drumroll please … 70-17.
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Q: I have read that Juan Encarnacion has been incommunicado. Has anybody tried to catch up with Scott Spiezio for reflections on his blown second chance with Atlanta, what he is doing to try to improve his personal life and whether he considers his baseball career finished?
– Larry Harnly, Springfield, Ill.
DG: Scott Spiezio hit the news again this week with the Red Sox rally in Game 5 of the American League Championship Series. See, it was back in 2002 that Spiezio’s home run fueled the last comeback we’ve seen like that — in the World Series for the Anaheim Angels. Other than that, you’re right Mr. Harnly, there hasn’t been much heard about or from Spiezio. After he failed to take advantage of Atlanta’s offer, Spiezio faded out of the news. Friends and teammates said they hoped he would take a break from baseball and focus getting his life in order before trying to reclaim his career. According to a few, later in the season, that’s what he was doing. All of them thought Spiezio would take another run at playing baseball — and most thought there would be a team willing to give him that shot.
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And then … there was the Albert Pujols question I posed during the Rushmore discussion last week. There were many people who wrote there and wrote to me about parameters they would like for any future Rushmore debates. Players only, some said. Retired icons only, other said. More Dizzy. Less suits. Etc. Into that tempest of suggestions, I flung the following question:
If Albert Pujols (who has received 4,900 votes at last check, third-most) retired today, would he be a Hall of Famer?
Here are a few of the answers I received about the Cardinals first baseman who has begun his career with eight consecutive seasons of 30 home runs, a .300 average and at least 100 RBIs:
BRIAN SMITH, St. Louis: Absolutely, without question. It would take some type of horrible, unthinkable disaster or tragedy for Albert to be forced to walk away from the game in his prime. Even if this happened, his sustained dominance over the past 8+ years would make him more than eligible for an induction into the HOF. Think Sandy Koufax in this regard.
AARON WILBERS, no town given: I say yes. Though he only has 8 years, for at least half of those years he has been considered the best player in baseball. That is the question IMO for the Hall of Fame. Was this player one of the greats of all time? Was he arguably the best player of this time? Pujols is a solid yes to both questions. His numbers over the 8 years are consistently amazing, and if you can get into the HOF by being just pretty good for a long period of time there is no way you can leave out a true great even if he didn’t pile up the required benchmark numbers by playing a long time. Now if he had only played 4-5 seasons I’d say no, but 7 MVP class seasons are enough. The somewhat sad thing is that the HOF has become the Hall of Pretty Good based on some of the questionable selections and people put more emphasis on benchmark numbers than true greatness. Players like Pujols should be recognized before guys who just logged a huge number of games with good but not great stats. Just my opinion.
KEVIN McMULLAN, no town given: A qualified ‘yes’ to your question about Pujols immediately to the HOF. Qualified because longevity counts in most voter’s minds. But longevity can be a bit misleading. Most great players have a ‘prime’ period during their careers; usually a 6 - 8 yr stretch where they really separate from the pack. … Consider two guys - Koufax and Mickey Mantle. Sandy had 5 great years. He actually played 12 seasons for Brooklyn and then the LA Dodgers. His first few years were pedestrian. He then had a few that were average to good. His last five years were lights out. He was the best pitcher in baseball those years. His worst era during that stretch was 2.54. Best was 1.73 which occurred in his final season - 1966. (Prior to ‘62 his era was mid 3’s and higher, sometimes in the 4s.)
Mantle had great years ‘54 - ‘62 when he did a lot of his damage. He was an all-round star and maybe the best player for a stretch there. The Mick played 18 years. He totaled 536 HRs and 1509 R’sBI in those seasons. The 9 year stretch noted above accounted for 65% of his homers and 60% of his R’sBI. Mantle had one more really good year ‘64 when he collected 35 HRs and 111 RsBI. … So, given Pujols’ consistent output over 8 seasons to date - his peak and coincidentally his only seasons - and comparing those to other HOFers peak years, I would have to argue for voting him in. His BA, OPS and slugging are superior to Mantle’s for total career and even Mickey’s best nine year stretch. … Last thought on this; it depends on how his career might end … If he mysteriously walks away into the ether, kind of like Koufax, he gets voted in 5 yrs from now.
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There were a handful of others like the ones above, and with the time clearly put into some of the emails, I feel awful to point out the plot twist: It’s a trick question.
Mr. McMullan brings up the key component here: longevity. The Hall of Fame ballot — which is delivered to members in good standings of the BBWAA who have at least 10 years with the organization — expressly says that a player, to be eligible, must have “played in each of ten (10) … seasons” in the major leagues. If he were to walk away from the game today — cue soothing yet haunting walkaway melody, David Banner-style — Pujols would be two years shy of eligibility. Thought I would use the discussion to bring up a forgotten rule when it comes to the HOF or HOF-not debates.
His numbers are worthy. His trophy trove is worthy. His reputation is worthy.
Pujols just needs to log two more years.
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Powered by questions, every week during postseason, Post-Dispatch baseball writer Derrick Goold will answer fans’ emails in a mailbag blog called PostCards, a spin-off of Bird Land. To comment and discuss the mailbag visit the PostCards blog on StlToday.com. To submit questions write PostCards@post-dispatch.com or file them as a comment on this blog. With all questions please include your name and hometown.
Questions can also be asked at Bird Land @ Facebook, or over at my “bird feed” on Twitter.
PostCards will run online exclusively at StlToday.com.
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