PostCards: The Price of Pitching
SOUTH GRAND — Would have had the weekly PostCards posted much earlier this morning if the first question — from the sharp, witty and ever-adept keyboard of regular Frank Fuhrig, of course — had not been as much a homework assignment as a question.
It’s written less for a mailbag and more for a syllabus.
One element of the St. Louis Cardinals’ interest/chances in landing San Diego ace Jake Peavy is the amount of money the Cardinals have earmarked for starting pitching in 2009, 2010 and even beyond. Three of the Cardinals current starters have contracts that can outlast Albert Pujols’ deal. The Cardinals could, feasibly, have $36 million in starting pitching already spent for the 2012 season. And that’s just on three different pitchers. It does not include Todd Wellemeyer, who have had a shot at free agency by then or any young arm that, if used immediately, would hit arbitration about then.
Into that conversation and its tightening purse strings Fuhrig lobs this research project:
Q: Everybody says you need pitching to win in baseball, so I have lots of questions about pitching. There’s been talk about the Cardinals having too much money buried in the rotation already to pursue another ace (Jake Peavy, etc.). I believe that Chris Carpenter, Kyle Lohse, Adam Wainwright and Joel Pineiro combined will top $35 million in 2009, or about one third of the payroll, plus whatever Todd Wellemeyer gets in arbitration or the threat of it. For comparison, what do other teams spend on their starting rotations in absolute dollars and as a fraction of payroll? If that’s hard to come by, perhaps we could just look at just the National League or at least the Central Division. (Plus the Yankees, Red Sox and Rays, just for fun?)
– Frank Fuhrig, Arlington, Va.
Fun? Fun? It’s become increasingly apparent that the blog needs a research staff for the mailbag alone. Well, I flipped through the USA Today Salary Database and a few other sources to look up the price of 10 pitching staffs. Because of trades and injuries and the usual thrown-rods and blown-labrums of a pitching staff, this will take some latitude. Some comparing of apples to oranges to, ahem, lemons.
As my guide, I used five starters from each team who, for the most part, made the most starts through the past season. This proved tricky, for example, in the case of Houston, where Shawn Chacon was ejected from the team and later replaced by Randy Wolf. (Wolf’s salary about covered both. Sort of.) There are, of course, a few teams — like the Cardinals — who had plenty of money tied up in a starter who didn’t do much starting. The New York Yankees have Carl Pavano ($11 million). The Cardinals had Carpenter ($10.5 million) and Mark Mulder ($7 million). How to count those?
- Yankees without Pavano spent $31.8 million on its rotation, or 15.2 percent.
- Yankees with Pavano, who did start, spent $42.8 million, or 20.5 percent.
- Cardinals without CC & MM spent $16.8 million on rotation, or 16.9 percent.
- Cardinals with CC & MM spent $34.3 million, or 34.4 percent.
I took Fuhrig’s offer and looked at 10 teams total — all of the National League Central (from the Chicago Cubs’ $42.5 million to the Pittsburgh Pirates’ $2.1 million), the Yankees, the Boston Red Sox and the two World Series teams.
The spending ran the spectrum. Two of the NL playoff teams spent more than 35 percent of their total payroll — as calculated by USA Today — on their rotation. That included Milwaukee, which spent a total of approximately $28.9 million on a staff of Ben Sheets ($12.1 million), Jeff Suppan ($8.3 million), Manny Parra ($392,000), Dave Bush ($2.6 million) and half a season of CC Sabathia ($5.5 million).
For the other eight teams — recall, Yanks and Cards are above — here is the breakdown:
- Chicago Cubs … $42.5 million, or 35.9 percent.
- Milwaukee Brewers … $28.9 million, or 35.7 percent.
- Philadelphia Phillies … $25.4 million, or 25.3 percent.
- Boston Red Sox … $23.3 million, or 17.5 percent.
- Houston Astros … $19.6 million, 22 percent.
- Cincinnati Reds … $12.6 million, 17 percent.
- Tampa Bay Rays … $6.0 million, 13.7 percent.
- Pittsburgh Pirates … $2.1 million, 4.3 percent.
There it is, Fuhrig. There’s your information. Not much of an answer, except it does reveal teams that spend on free agents for pitching (see: Cubs) and those that have cultivated their own and will soon have a bill coming due (see: Rays).
But that wasn’t enough for Mr. Fuhrig. Nope. His questions kept coming. So, on with PostCards:
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Q: Along with a starter if Chris Carpenter isn’t ready, the pitching needs include a closer and lefty specialist. What about pursuing a swingman who could go where he’s needed? Ryan Dempster (righty) was a looming free agent who is proven as both a closer and starter. Braden Looper might be a cheaper version of a starter with experience as a closer. Are there other guys with similar profile available to sign or trade?
– Frank Fuhrig, Arlington, Va.
DG: With the market has evolved in recent years, I can’t imagine Dempster or Looper considering an offer that even has the whiff of relieving. Both have proven they are not only capable of starting, but capable of being competitive — in Dempster’s case, even controlling — as a starting pitcher. Both of them are going to sign deals with teams that want them in the rotation, not teams that are offering them a floating role. Ditto with Brian Fuentes, who is going to want to close — not sign with the possibility of closing or being a LOOGY.
For the two-birds-with-one-signing move, try the pitcher suggested by Joe Strauss in his recent chat. Seems like a natural fit for the Cardinals: Jeremy Affeldt.
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Q: I HAVEN’T SEEN ANY DISCUSSION OF THE POSSIBILITY OF TRADING RICK ANKIEL. I WOULD LIKE TO SEE HIM TRADED AS HE CERTAINLY HAS HAD SOME PROBLEMS WITH INJURIES. I THINK THE CARDINALS COULD VERY WELL PICK UP A GOOD SHORTSTOP OR SOMEONE FOR ANOTHER INFIELD POSITION IN SUCH A TRADE.
– Bill B.
DG: No need to shout. Keep in mind that the reasons you would want to trade Ankiel — injury concerns — would be the same reasons a team would be reluctant to trade for him. There are no secrets. The message boards aren’t seem something in a Cardinal that professional scouts are overlooking. When teams entertain the notion of dealing for Ankiel they will consider the same question the Cardinals will have entering an arbitration hearing or an long-term-deal negotiations: Is he a 150-game center fielder? Will his body take that pounding?
There is clearly promise and potential there, and it’s not improbable that Ankiel’s name will come up with some trade talk this winter. There are few teams in search of a center fielder like him. Pure connecting-dots speculation here: Colorado, for example. And the Rockies certainly saw Ankiel at his best …
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Q: Chris Carpenter and Mark Mulder both have had surgery by the same surgeon and in each case the primary surgery didn’t fix the problem and they were operated on again . In Mulder’s case the second surgery didn’t fix the problem either and the jury is still out in regards to Carpenter. Should they possibly have been better served if they had someone else do the follow up surgery? I guess what I’m asking is did they get the best medical care available?
– Jim Hostman, Virginia Beach, Va.
DG: This is the $76-million question (give or take). The history is the answer. First, it’s worth pointing out that they had two very different surgeries. Carpenter’s was on his elbow, and both surgeries are the type with a tremendous track record of returns. Mulder’s were on the shoulder and … well, the track record of return is a little less certain. (See: Matt Clement, et. al.) Mulder’s first surgery was perfomed by Dr. David Altchek in New York. Altchek used three rows of sutures to repair the rotator cuff, and one row did not take. That is a physical issue, not a surgical issue. It happens. The second surgery, performed by Cardinals team doctor George Paletta, corrected the cuff and repaired the structure of the shoulder. Its flexibility continues to be the issue. Mulder chose to have Paletta perform the second surgery. He did so after consultation with several surgeons and having his pick of places to go.
This from a study of shoulder surgeries and pitchers that Paletta helped direct:
In the study, doctors looked at 67 elite-level pitchers, all of whom had their labrum repaired (like Mulder) and some of whom had rotator cuff repairs (like Mulder). Eleven of the pitchers could not return to pitching, Paletta said. Eight lost a significant percentage of their shoulder’s rotation. Said Paletta: “Lack of full rotation is the kiss of death.”
Carpenter, as mentioned, is a different set of circumstances. Carpenter has spoke often, and sometimes privately, about his faith in Paletta because of his relationship with Paletta. The first surgery Carpenter had was to remove bone spurs from the right elbow — and it was done with the understanding that it would possibly get him back pitching that same season (2007) and with the potential that Tommy John surgery would still be required down the road. Carpenter and the Cardinals, in consultation with Paletta, elected to go with the least-invasive surgery that got him back. If it didn’t work, they would go with the surgery that got him completely fixed. Other players have been put in the same situation — decide to have the surgery that gets him back the quickest or the one that gets him fixed completely. It can be a tough call.
Argue with the approach. Argue with the decision. But it’s hard to fault the actual care.
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Q: Roberto de la Cruz, a/k/a Robert Pina, received the highest bonus ever given by the Cardinals to a Latin player this summer — $1.1 million. I did not see any stats on him in the Appalachian League, Gulf Coast or Dominican leagues. Did he play? If not, why not? I also saw nothing on pitcher Santo Franco, 16, who received a six-figure bonus. Pina received this bonus as a 16-year-old, the equivalent of a high school sophomore in the United States. Isn’t this a major gamble? And why isn’t the Dominican Republic part of the First-Year Player Draft similar to Puerto Rico? Then most players would not be drafted until they are 17 or 18.
– Larry Harnly, Springfield, Ill.
DG: Neither played in the domestic minor leagues because, as you mention, they are a bit young. Both were signed as free agents and now both players are at the club’s campus in the Dominican Republic.
Of course it’s a major gamble. It’s one of the biggest gambles in baseball, but it’s the nature of the beast right now. It’s a far less of a gamble than some of the prices being paid to land talent from Asia, especially Japan. In some ways, it’s less of a gamble than the draft. The Cardinals gave first-round pick Chris Lambert a $1.5-million bonus and that was much more costly because they also used the 19th pick on him. Every so often, there is an attempt or discussion about making the draft global, like the NHL or NBA, instead of its isolated boundaries. It isn’t now and it will take some drastic changes in the international market to be so. But it probably will be in our lifetimes.
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Q: COULD SKIP SCHUMAKER LEARN THE POSITION IN ARIZONA AND FLORIDA THIS OFF SEASON? IF SO, THEN THAT OPENS UP FOR A POWER GUY AND PUTS A BETTER BAT AT 2B WITHOUT MESSING UP CHEMISTRY.
– Shawn N.
DG: Tap that caps lock key, folks. (This must be my payback for sending so many emails recently in the e. e.-cummings style. Point taken.) This question gets asked a good two, three times a month. Why not play Schumaker at second? The lefthanded-hitting, righthanded-throwing outfielder came to the Cardinals as a shortstop. He played the position in a pre-draft camp at old Busch Stadium. And that was the last of it. With the exception of a few innings at third base — injuries, he said — he’s spent his professional career as an outfielder and is best suited to stay as an outfielder. As he said this past spring training: ”The last time I took a groundball was 2000 — one that I took seriously.”
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Q: How is the Dodger-Phillie dust up in the NLCS different than Kyle Lohse’s incident ? Nobody from those two teams gets a suspension, just a fine? Is there an inconsistency here?
– Dave Mitchell, Waterloo, Iowa
DG: The answer to any question that includes the words inconsistency and Lohse’s suspension is Yes. In the final few weeks of this past regular season there were two precedents set that should send chills through the majors, First, Lohse was suspended five days for a high-and-tight pitch — one that did not hit the batter and one that did not merit an ejection. While there’s little doubt of Lohse’s aggressive intent with the pitch, there’s the same amount of evidence that the opposing starter did the same thing … A suit-and-tie second-guess of an umpire in this case is wacky and unsettling. The other: Milwaukee pulling a page out of the NHL and firing its manager with 12 games to go and the move being legitimized by a playoff berth. The hot seat just got hotter. There is no safe harbor.
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Powered by questions, every week during postseason, Post-Dispatch baseball writer Derrick Goold will answer fans’ emails in a mailbag blog called PostCards, a spin-off of Bird Land. To comment and discuss the mailbag visit the PostCards blog on StlToday.com. To submit questions write PostCards@post-dispatch.com or file them as a comment on this blog. With all questions please include your name and hometown.
Questions can also be asked at Bird Land @ Facebook, or over at my “bird feed” on Twitter.
PostCards will run online exclusively at StlToday.com.
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Derrick Goold said he was going to Mizzou for capital-J journalism, but after growing up in the Time Zone Baseball Forgot he was really drawn to MU sitting between two major-league cities. Goold joined the Post-Dispatch in 2001 after working for The Times-Picayune and Rocky Mountain News, covering sports from LSU to NHL and every level of baseball in between.
DG, you mention Jeremy Affeldt as a LHRP possibility. I would think he is certainly in signing range for the Cards. He has a lively arm, and has great potential to really be a good sign. He K’ed 80 in 78.3 innings this season. What would the Cards be looking at as far as a price?
Schu to 2nd? I think the Cards would best benefiet if they looked to trade Schu. He is coming off of a career year, and with the number of young Cardinal OF’ers in the minor leagues I don’t see Schu with a future on this team. Jon Jay, Mighty Joe Mather, Raz, Daryl Jones…the list is a long one of guys that are better suited to hold a future on this team than Schu is.
I don’t think Ank will ever be a lock to play the majority of a full season. Yes, he will hit 25 HRs, and play great defense, but ,he is a .270 hitter at best, and doesn’t put the ball in play enough.