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11.03.2008 1:40 am

PostCards: Trade Winds

St. Louis Post-Dispatch
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TOWER GROVE — Gentlemen, start your transactions.

General managers from around baseball are converging at AIG’s favorite hangout in Dana Point, Calif., today and all week for the first round of window-shopping and swap-talking. Unlike last year when the pitching market was headlined by Carlos Silva and trades were the currency of winter, this offseason has the high-watt free agents (CC Sabathia and Manny Ramirez) and the superstar trade chips (Jake Peavy and Matt Holliday). There is something for everyone in this year’s market. At a price.

Joe Strauss has a snapshot of the St. Louis Cardinals’ itinerary in this morning’s paper — another Joe Beimel mention — and their wish list as they arrive at St. Regis. SI.com’s Jon Heyman has a macro look at the meetings, and Yahoo! Sports Tim Brown reveals the ringleader of any gathering of general managers and MLB movers/shakers (Hint: He used to be a Cardinals minor-leaguer). Naturally, the GM meetings is also the unmentioned subject of the first question in this week’s mailbag.

There’s also a letter from overseas about Albert Pujols’ steady pulse and another offseason project for Skip Schumaker.

Write PostCards@post-dispatch.com with any questions you may have. I’m off to Mizzou on Monday, but will be checking back periodically or as news commands.

On with PostCards.

***

Q: You’re such an excellent researcher, I was wondering your take on who potential trade partners for the Cardinals might be. Any teams you see as a really good match in terms of needs and excesses. Or maybe a sleeper team people wouldn’t see an obvious match with right away (Tampa Bay?). I don’t think our GM gets enough credit for the Scott Rolen and Jim Edmonds deals he made last year. All they produced were the minor league player of the year, David Freese (my vote in your new pole) and a potential Gold Glove winner at 3B, Troy Glaus (wait, isn’t that what we traded away for better offense which we also got). He seems to have a real knack for maximizing value through trades. One reason I believe nothing happened at the trade deadline. I look forward to watching him work this offseason and reading any research commentary you might have on this subject. Thanks for the time and effort.

Chris

DG: The shopping lists will become more clear in the coming week as GMs settle in for the first of the winter’s two convention-like events. (This week: California. December: Vegas, baby. Brace yourself for the obvious puns.) What’s clear so far is that teams who have big chips to trade — Jake Peavy, Matt Holliday – are looking for young/cheap starting pitching. That puts the Cardinals in the secondary market because they don’t have the young or cheap starting pitchers to swing that kind of deal. Both of those players mentioned could reach the secondary market. (A report out of San Diego has the Padres talking with the Cubs; Atlanta is headed west with a purpose in mind.) If they slip, then the Cardinals do have some attractive assets.

Check the depth: The Cardinals have outfielder — especially center fielders — righthanded relievers and one .300-hitting catcher … priced to move.

The match appears to be there with San Diego in center field and in Colorado with the catcher, the reliever and possibly center field (though it’s unlikely that the Rockies would choose quantity over quality when it comes to landing Holliday). The Cardinals’ surplus also lines up somewhat with Florida, where reliever Kevin Gregg is up for auction. This is just me but I always thought the Mets’ Aaron Heilman was a good fit for the Cardinals, especially with his ability to start and relieve in this era of Carpenter Concern. The White Sox are a possible match at a few positions, including center field, though I’m not sure what would come the other way from Chicago. Seattle could look to move closer J.J. Putz, and the Mariners current manager, Jim Riggleman, is well-versed in the Cardinals’ minor-league rosters having been the field coordinator as recently as 2007. Cleveland offers some intrigue because the Indians appear to have a spare middle infielder and an interest in relievers.

The aforementioned catcher, Bryan Anderson, is going to be the most compelling minor-leaguer for the Cardinals this season. By signing Jason LaRue for 2009 there is a block for Anderson, who just continues to hit .300 at every level while still polishing his technique as a catcher. He’s young. He hit lefthanded. He’s in a valued demographic. The Cardinals are learning how valuable.

***

Q: Greetings from a Swedish Cards fan living in Brussels, Belgium! I really appreciate your work on the StlToday.com. I’m truly amazed by Albert Pujols’ consistency, and how he never seems to be in prolonged slumps. I can really only recall his average being a bit on the low side early last season. Have you looked into the monthly splits over the course of his career? Do you know where I could find them? Thanks and keep up the good work!

Jon Ahlsén, Belgium

DG: The most accessible place for such information is the splits tab on Albert Pujols’ player page over at Yahoo! Sports. But why click there when the Cliff Notes are here. Thanks for the note from Belgium (love the airport), and the numbers look the same on these shores — remarkably consistent. In his career, Pujols is a .334 hitter, and his month-by-month averages look like this, in a spectrum April to September:

.325 … .324 … .336 … .336 … .344 … .341

Steady as a pulse. Pujols’ slugging percentage — the best bang for the buck stat out there, in my opinion — doesn’t vary too much either, ranging from .601 in all of his Junes to .660 in all of his Augusts. I looked up the month-by-month batting average splits for Pujols since 2003, roughly the last 36 months of baseball he’s played. In only six of the 36 has he had an average of less than .300. He’s had 13 months with at least a .350 average. Since 2003, he’s had, routinely, two months a season with a batting average of better than .350. This was the first season in that span that he had three months with a batting average of at least .350. Pujols’ lowest batting average by month in the past 36 came in April 2007. He hit .250. His highest batting average in the span was the .429 he had in June 2003. The slugging percentage doesn’t waver much either as his lowest was .359 in 2006, what some consider his career year. That same year his April slugging percentage was .914. Other years are like 2004, from .539 to .772.

Check out his month-by-month averages in the final three months of the season the past six seasons. This is a group that included 18 months. Only once did he hit less than .300. This is why he’s Mound City’s Metronome:

JULY (’03-’08): .330 … .374 … .358 … .361 … .358 … .347

AUG (’03-’08): .348 … .351 … .287 … .315 … .307 … .398

SEPT (’03-’08): .313 … .344 … .318 … .368 … .386 … .321

***

Q: Do you mean that players who have already waived their options for 2009 are filing for free agency? Surely club options by rule must have been decided by now, i.e., Jason Isringhausen. Players can’t file for free agency until they waive their options, right?

Frank Fuhrig, Virginia

DG: This question was posed at the bottom of a recent blog entry, but I felt it was important enough to address here as well. (Besides, what’s a mailbag with a Fuhrig fix?) Players who have team options yet to be exercised can file for free agency on a provisional basis. They do with the understanding that their official free agency awaits resolution of the team’s decision. But should the team decline the option — as the Yankees reportedly will do with lefty reliever Damaso Marte – then the player has already cleared the paperwork hurdle for his free agency.

***

Q: Has Skip Schumaker, a .168 hitter left-handed this season, ever tried switch hitting in the minor leagues? Any chance he would give it a shot in spring training? I am guessing no because of his relatively advanced age.

Larry Harnly, Springfield, Ill.

DG: So, it’s not enough for Schumaker to have taken the leadoff spot by the handles and carried it all season. No, he’s also got to be able to play all three outfield positions and have the arm of a player twice his height. Oh, and there are some who want him to learn to play second base this winter. Now you need him to switch-hit? That’s quite a to-do list. Just wait until word gets around that he pitched in college and threw in the 90s. Can he close?

***

Powered by questions, every week during postseason, Post-Dispatch baseball writer Derrick Goold will answer fans’ emails in a mailbag blog called PostCards, a spin-off of Bird Land. To comment and discuss the mailbag visit the PostCards blog on StlToday.com. To submit questions write PostCards@post-dispatch.com or file them as a comment on this blog. With all questions please include your name and hometown.

Questions can also be asked at Bird Land @ Facebook, or over at my “bird feed” on Twitter.

PostCards will run online exclusively at StlToday.com.

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7 comments

Comments are closed.

Derrick,
Isn’t it a little late to be blogging? Thanks for thinking of me. Actually, I like the idea of stealing PostCards questions from the postings by blog readers. Such questions arise from ongoing discussions and are probably better focused than a lot of the mail bag questions. I know I’ve forced some mail bag questions that didn’t go anywhere (and rightly, thankfully, died without seeing the light of day), while I’ve probably posed the best questions amid blog debates, sometimes on tangential topics.

In that vein, your answer to the Swede in Brussels (great statues!) got me to thinking about batting average, on-base percentage and slugging percentage. The Moneyball statheads insist that batting average is meaningless (Juan Pierre) and on-base percentage is superior. Fair enough. But slugging percentage then excludes walks. Is there a slugging stat that combines total bases with walks, divided by plate appearances? You could also argue for adding in the sum of stolen bases minus caught stealing, because a single and a steal should be as good as a double, in some ways. Maybe even sacrifices: after all, moving one or more runners a base is like extending whatever hit or other means got them on. Is there any accounting for errors hit into? From a Moneyball philosophy, hitting into an error is as good as a hit, but you’re actually punished for it in batting average. I’m sure Ted Williams, Stan Musial and Albert Pujols hit into a higher rate of fielding errors than weaker hitters just by virtue of killing the ball. Similarly, you have to figure Vince Coleman’s speed got him on via infielder error (rushed transfers, botched throws) more often than Ken Rietz (infamously lead footed ’70s third baseman). Aren’t those all a form of OBP and slugging?
(Feel free to pocket this for the next PostCards if you like … but if I’m rambling, look at what time I posted this.)

— Fuhrig
3:40 am November 3rd, 2008

Jim Riggleman has already left the Mariners. He’s the Nationals bench coach.

— Rob
9:29 am November 3rd, 2008

DG, you mention Cleveland as a potential trade partner….

What would it take to acquire Jhonny Peralta? He has been rumored to be on the trade block, and he is coming off a great 2008 season:

HR:23

RBI:89

AVG:.276

OBP: .331

SLG: .473

Some very nice production from Jhonny Peralta. He is only 26 years old, and has produced runs with regularity since his arrival in the majors.

Would the Indians be interested in Bryan Anderson? Current Cleveland catcher Victor Martinez is coming off a very poor season, and the Indians might be looking to find his replacement at catcher.

Based on the numbers he can swing the bat, but the remaining question is can he play solid defense? I haven’t seen Peralta play a ton so I don’t know where he ranks on D….

— emc2013
2:59 pm November 3rd, 2008

Does a .767 OPS with 19 GIDP’s out of a corner OF position really qualify as “taking the leadoff spot by the handles and carrying it all season”???

That is acceptable performance out of a 2B or an elite CF, but not a corner OF. Hence the “can skip move to 2B” and “can skip switch hit” comments. He has to be the odd man out in the OF next season, unless he changes positions or two or more of the 5 outfielders who are better than he is get traded (or, of course, unless we want to make finishing 4th a habit).

— SleepyCA
4:49 pm November 3rd, 2008

Judging Schumaker as a leadoff man by his OPS is kind of ingenuous, since the job of a leadoff man is to get on base, not to slug.

And Schumaker did just fine in that regard, with his .359 OBA (.393 vs righties).

— Jmodene
9:31 pm November 3rd, 2008

Cards have surplus outfield, trade Rasmus, some young pitching, possibly Anderson and get Peavy and K. Greene!!!!

— Bill Pinkham
2:00 pm November 4th, 2008

“Judging Schumaker as a leadoff man by his OPS is kind of ingenuous, since the job of a leadoff man is to get on base, not to slug.”

No, what is disingenuous is inventing a position in order to justify putting an inferior hitter into the lineup. The job of a professional baseball player is help his team score runs, period. While getting on base is more important than slugging for a person batting first in the lineup, a “leadoff man” who slugs .500 will help his team score more runs than one who slugs .400.

There is no such position as “leadoff man”. No player should ever be put in the lineup to be a “leadoff man”. A man put in left field absolutely must be a better hitter than skip schumaker on a team that expects to contend in a division with milwaukee and chicago and houston. If TLR insists on having a poor hitting player bat leadoff, it needs to be a player playing a position other than LF.

Hence the “can skip play second base” comments. (and the “can shane robinson play 2B”, etc).

— SleepyCA`
6:10 pm November 4th, 2008