The St. Louis area has experienced positive absorption of industrial space for every quarter of this recession, Colliers Turley Martin Tucker says in a market research report out today.

But that situation is about to change. The permanent closure of the two Chrysler plants in Fenton will produce a 2 percent jump in the area’s industrial vacancy rate, Colliers’ report says. In addition to the 5-million-square-foot Chrysler complex going dark, several of the automaker’s suppliers also are expected to close and put their buildings up for sublease, Colliers adds.

At midyear, the area’s industrial vacancy rate was 6.3 percent, down from 6.4 percent at the start of 2009. In comparison, the area’s vacancy rate jumped to 7.5 percent a few years ago when Ford closed its plant in Hazelwood. The vacancy rate fell a full percentage point when that plant was demolished.

On the office front, continuing strength in the area’s medical-related businesses is fueling increased overall occupancy in the region. Express Scripts moved into the second building at its headquarters campus and Essence Health Care occupied space at Riverport.

But trouble might be just ahead. The area’s overall employment continues to fall. Colliers notes that office occupancy is a lagging indicator, meaning the effects of jobs losses don’t happen until months later.

“Most economists agree that job losses will continue at least through the end of 2009, so it is likely that the St. Louis office market will see the effects of job losses over the coming twelve months,” the Colliers’ report says.