Signs of a bottom for St. Louis homebuilding. But not there yet.
After this news earlier in the week of a 17 percent jump in housing starts and a 4 percent increase in building permits in May, there were hopes that a turnaround is near in the home construction market.
But not just yet in St. Louis, where it looks like the best we can say is that things aren’t getting much worse.
We got new data Wednesday afternoon from the Home Builders Association of St. Louis, which tracks permits in seven Missouri counties in the region. They found an 8 percent decline in permits issued between April and May, and a May permit number that still lags last year’s by 22 percent. Single-family permits - the vast majority of the local market - were off 14 percent from May 2008.
But now for the good news. That 14 percent year-over-year drop and the 13 percent notched in April were the shallowest declines in more than a year, and the best two straight months since Sept. and Oct. of 2007. In other words, homebuilding is still shrinking, just not as fast. That’s something, right?
This region hasn’t seen consistent growth in home construction since 2005. And for much of last year, the home building industry was in a free-fall. It’s fallen a long way, but maybe it’s at least starting to level off.
Here’s a chart the change, year over year, in building permits issued each month, going back to 2005.
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Yeah, just like Obama stating a few weeks ago that the economy had turned the corner and then he had to admit just days ago that the unemployment rate would most certainly hit 10%. How’s that working out for you?
Existing homes sales are rising, that’s a leading indicator for construction. You have to be able to sell you current home if you want to be able to build a new one.
Unemployment will continue to rise after the recession is over, it’s just the way it works.
I hate my life.