Commerce Bank bond expert predicts long recession

America can expect several more dreary months of recession, says Commerce Bank bond guru Scott Colbert. 

 At best, the nation can expect to hit an economic bottom in June, July or August before beginning a slow recovery, Colbert said Tuesday at the bank’s annual economic forecast breakfast.

The nation will be lucky if unemployment goes no higher than 8 percent, and housing prices prices will probably fall another 14 percent lower than today.  “We have to put housing on sale to clear the inventory,” said Colbert, who is director of fixed income management at Commerce.

Commerce CEO David Kemper said the bank expects “reasonably strong earnings” next year, despite rising loan losses, especially among consumer loans.

Kemper saw a thin silver lining in the economic slump.  It will leave America with a “stronger, leaner, more rational” credit system, and a society based on less debt and more savings, he said