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12.02.2008 9:54 am

Will HOF doors open for Smith.. . or McGwire?

St. Louis Post-Dispatch
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The Hall of Fame ballot came out Monday and former Cardinals slugger Mark McGwire appeared on it for the third time. There’s a good chance he’ll get 128 votes for 2009. That’s the figure he achieved in each of his first two years of eligibility as the majority of voters appears to wrestle with his possible involvement in steroids. While McGwire’s chances are slim again this time, there is another former Cardinal who appears to have received short shrift over the years.

Q: Hi Rick,
Please help me understand something.  While the career leaders in almost every statistical category are in the Hall of Fame, for some reason the all-time leader in saves, Lee Smith, is not.  Not only is he not in the Hall, there doesn’t even seem to be a campaign to try and get him elected.  Am I missing something?  Were some of his saves “cheap”?  Is he accused of steroid use?  I know the old reason used to be “relief pitchers just don’t make it to the Hall,” but now that Sutter and Gossage have led the way, that’s no longer an issue.
I’m not a huge fan of Smith, just a baseball fan who likes to see “everything in its place.”  And it would seem logical that the all-time leader in an important category like saves would be an automatic for the Hall.  Unless I’m missing something — so enlighten me.
I enjoy your insights to the game of baseball.  Keep up the good work!
Jim Geiss
St. Charles, MO
A: Jim, thank you. This matter has puzzled me for some time and it has angered Smith, an easy-going man very slow to such emotion. His percentage of 43.3 of the votes was very disappointing last year, given that all the candidates received a spike when surefire choices Tony Gwynn and Cal Ripken Jr., weren’t at the top of the ballot anymore. For the record, Smith has been passed by Trevor Hoffman as the all-time saves leader. All I can figure is that Smith rarely was in postseason play, mostly because his teams generally just weren’t good enough. I’d hate to think that the home run he allowed to Steve Garvey to lose a key playoff game for the Cubs in San Diego in 1984 has hurt him that much. Whenever asked, I always support Smith. Let’s see if he does better this year.

***

Q: Hi Mr. Hummel;
If the Cards are still interested in signing Springer or Looper what advantage (if any) do they gain by not offering them salary arbitration?
These are two quality guys whose fruit is now hanging low for anyone to pick and they missed out on obtaining a draft pick if the two decline to take the arbitration offer.  Was fear in the minds of Cardinal management that they would choose arbitration and thereby recieve large money or is there a thought-out method to this process whereby the Cards believe they can still sign them?
Thank you sir.
A: Dave, I think GM John Mozeliak wanted to maintan his roster flexibility for potential free-agent signings in other areas. In this awful economy now, I’m sure Mozeliak didn’t want to guarnatee bigger paydays to Springer and Looper by offering them arbitration and possibly having them accept. Looper, angling for a multi-year deal, probably wouldn’t have accepted the offer,  but if he did come back, you’d have the same rotation you finished last year with. And that really wasn’t good enough.

Until somebody signs somebody, we’re not really sure where the market is going and Mozeliak didn’t want his hands tied. I’m not saying that’s necessarily the right decision, but I’m trying to give you some of the possible thinking

***

Q: Commish:
As much as I like Chris Carpenter and hope that he pitches again in 2009, it’s not something I think we should count just yet.  I think DeWitt and Mozeliak need to get busy and sign another starting pitcher as insurance just in case Carp comes up lame…again!  I think that the starter we sign should be a lefty, should be relatively young, should be capable of producing double digit wins, and should be an innings eater.  The name that comes immediately to my mind is Randy Wolf of the Houston Astros.
Now that the Astros have apparently brought Mike Hampton back, I think this would be a good  opportunity to snatch a key cog from a division rival.  Randy will be 32 on Opening Day.  He won 12 games last year (same as Braden Looper).  He pitched 190.1 innings, had 162 strikeouts and only 71 walks.  I think he would be a perfect middle of the rotation guy and is the lefty starter we really need.
If Carpenter is ready to pitch again in 2009 - great!  But, at least, we would have a capable and durable starter as an insurance policy and we could even have Pineiro and/or Brad Thompson available as swingmen or long relievers.  With a healthy Carpenter, Wainwright, Lohse, Wolf, and Wellemeyer, we could have FIVE 162+ inning guys just like we did in 2004 and 2005.  That’s when our starters were able to go deep into ball games and Cardinal pitching was at its best.
A: Randy Wolf is at the top of my list, too. But the Cardinals want to wait for medical word on Carpenter. They risk waiting too long to sign somebody like Wolf but that is their philosophy although again, not much is likely to happen before next week anyway.

***

Q: Commish- Why would the Brave keep talking about trading young shortstop Yunel Escobar @ signing Rafial Furcal?? I understand HAVING to put him in a deal for someone like Peavy BUT short of a Peavy type deal why trade a young good shortstop @ sign Furcal?? What do the Braves know that nobody else does?? Have the Cardinals talked to Furcal? Orlando Cabrera? Orlando Hudson?
A: Bryan, I’m sure the Cardinals have talked to agents for all those players. If you had a good idea, Furcal was healthy, he clearly is the best sign of the ones you mentioned. But you don’t and it would be hard for the Cardinals to throw a lot of guaranteed money at Furcal unless there would be some games-played incentives attached.

***

Q:

Commish
Thanks for taking the time to answer these questions. I’ve got one for you. In all your years of covering the Cardinals, could you give a list of your all-star team of Cardinals players who were good interviewees? I’m not necessarily talking about guys who were just good talkers but those who were always gracious and upfront in bad times as well as good times.
Thanks
Robert Miller
A: Interesting question, Robert. And I’m sure I’ll leave somebody out, but here’s a short list: Simmons, Sutter, Herr, Forsch, Jordan, Isringhausen, Carpenter, Matheny, Oberkfell, Hernandez, Reitz, Lee Smith, Lonnie Smith, , Worrell, Dayley, Oquendo. And George Hendrick (although he wasn’t quoted much). Many others, but there’s a start.
***
Q:

All hell is going to break loose with free agents. The Yankees did not pffer arbitration to Pettitte and Abreu. Mike Francesa on WFAN said he hears that the Cubs are interested in Abreu. The Cubs must be printing money if that is true. The Yankee rotation without Mussina and Pettitte is very thin, particularly in experience. I look for them to spend like crazy to get at least two free-agent pitchers. Where the hell is Peavy going? That contract must have everyone thinking real hard. What is your best guess on where he goes?
Thanks,
Dick
A: Dick, I still wouldn’t rule Atlanta out of the Peavy picture. I don’t think the Cubs will be able to afford Abreu unless we find the market for him is very slim. And that well may be the case.
Q: Rick,
What’s the story on Trever Miller. Is it really “language” in the contract? Or did they hit a snag elsewhere? ie. money, years, or injury found during the physical? Seems like a long time to be waiting on language, any insight on this?
Thanks,
Greg
A: Greg, it’s possible that something cropped on the physical which concerned the Cardinals and they wanted to include some games-pitched incentives that Miller’s side might not have wanted. It does look as if he isn’t coming. I know Walt Jocketty and the Reds have been after both Miller and Arthur Rhodes, whom the Cardinals also have targeted.
***
Q: Mr. Hummel, do you think the team should make an almost “take it or leave it” extension offer to Ankiel right now, thereby finding out if an extension is likely or that this is the time to trade him. A few teams with good trading potential are looking for a power hitting lefty usually to play right field. In this market, his trade value might be better than at the trade deadline next season. I just think we might regret trading Ludwick, who is under team control much longer. I feel sure Ludwick will hit at least .280 with at least 25 home runs. But there is no reason that he can’t repeat or even improve on this last season. Thanks.
A: Roger, I don’t think you put yourself into a “take it or leave it” situation yet, especially with the uncertainty of Ankiel’s health at the end of last season.
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7 comments

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Hello Mr. Hummel;

I believe the steroid era, which I think began in the mid eighties and roughly covers a 20 year period, is an era all in itself. So what do you do with it? I think the simple answer is to just call the era “relative”. It’s relative to itself as to the performance of the ball players who played in that era. Some are in the Hall Of Fame already. So McGwire should be a shoe-in. If Big Mac is shut out you may as well pull everyone who played in the era out of the HOF and yeah, that includes OZZIE SMITH and CAL RIPKEN. Big Mac was just as great for baseball on and off the field as anyone in the game in that era and he has the numbers to back up his quals for the Hall. I also think Mr. McGwire and three other ballplayers were samples of the era that were put on display in a very intimidating forum when they were called to go before a congressional committee. I’d probably forget how to speak english myself if I had to face such a show of force. After all, it was a Congress game played by there rules and those ball players knew they were in a no win situation. They suffered what the whole era should have suffered…shame and reputation loss. It’s kind of like the team concept. If one guy fails the whole team fails. I’ve got more to say on the matter, but for space and time sake I’ll stop. What are your thoughts on this Mr. Hummel? THANK YOU for sharing your time with us fans!

— dave cobler
8:56 pm December 2nd, 2008

I think Randy Wolf would be a good addition as bottom of the rotation pitcher providing you could sign for only 2 or 3 years at a reasonable(sub 8 mil) price. However if my memory serves me correctly didn’t he turn down a contract from us to sign with the Dodgers for less money? Does that indicate that he may not really want to play here?

— Sailor Jay
12:22 pm December 3rd, 2008

Commish,
A thought struck me earlier today that really gave me some hope. I understand that we have anywhere between $20 and $25 million to spend (after new deals for Miles, Ludwick, Ankiel, and Wellemeyer, and before trading Kennedy). The thought that I had was that if we trade Ludwick for Yunel Escobar, we would save about $3 million of 2009 payroll. First question: Are the Cardinals expected to have talks with the Braves during the meetings concerning a possible trade involving these two players? Now, I have been a huge supporter of Ryan Ludwick and I don’t want to lose that kind of production in the lineup. Enter Manny Ramirez. I know he’ll want a huge contract, but if we sign Rhodes to a deal similar to Miller’s, and Escobar saves us $3 million, and we pick up some scrap heap 2B to hit 9th, shouldn’t we have $20+ million in the budget for Manny? I can’t think of anyone in baseball that I would rather have hitting behind Albert than Manny. What are the odds that Mo can save enough to splurge for him?
p.s. Albert Pujols would also like to have a bona fide bat hitting behind him so he doesn’t have to compete with anyone for all the MVP awards that he deserves.
Thanks for your input.

— Peter
10:18 pm December 3rd, 2008

I think the criteria for Hall of Fame relief pitchers especially closers is still in flux. The role of a closer has only gained prominence in the last 30 years and they have only started getting elected to HOF in the last 5 years or so. I am just guessing but I think there may have been a strong bias in favor of starting pitchers by many of the older writers. As natural attrition allows younger writers to replace the older ones more relievers will be elected and eventually a consensus of the stats and achievements required for HOF relievers will be roughly established. As far as Lee Smith is concerned I think his lack of post season success is the main reason for his lack of support. The lifetime save number is too new and unfamiliar to provide instant recognition of greatness the way 200 wins or 3000 strikeouts does for starters.
As far as Big Mac goes, unfortunately he will probably have to wait 5-10 years for some of this steroids hysteria to die down before he gets in. A lot of this hysteria is an over-reaction by writers who spent years ignoring the elephant in the room and are now trying to hide their embarrassment by getting self-righteous over the Hall of Fame voting.

— Sailor Jay
11:17 pm December 3rd, 2008

I just saw where we may trade 2, AAA relivers to SD for shortstop Khalil Greene. That would be a GOOD DEAL!!!!!!!! I also see where we may try to sign LH starting pitcher Oliver Perez. That would be GOOD also!!! And may still go after Brian Fuentes, IF his asking price comes down. Any truth to any of this??? What do you thank about these rumors ?????

— Bryan Cathey
11:43 pm December 3rd, 2008

Rick, you mention that the economy is awefull right now. Did I miss something? Didnt MLB make record profits and attendance once again? Didnt the Cardinal organization make a whole lot of money? Did season ticket sales plummet this off season? What in the world does that have to do with anything here? I see it as just one more reason to justify not trying to sign any high dollar impact players. I dont mean to suggest they act like the Yanks or Sox. We are just taking about ONE pitcher like peavy or Burnett or one bat.

— markthephoneguy
9:12 am December 8th, 2008

Regarding Lee Smith not making the HOF:

Lee is no longer the career leader in saves. He is third, behind Trevor Hoffman and Mariano Rivera, who passed him in 2008.

Being the career leader in saves is a compelling argument. Being third, not so much. Lee wasn’t a “lights out” guy like Rivera, Sutter, Eck. He was a very good closer but his main claim to fame was longevity.

— jared donze
9:42 am December 8th, 2008