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01.09.2009 5:16 pm

35 days till pitchers and catchers

St. Louis Post-Dispatch
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As of Saturday, it’s 35 days until pitchers and catchers report. You seem pretty satisfied with the catching, but not the pitching.

Q: I am a loyal Cardinals fan down here in North Carolina where I’m in graduate school for chemistry. First of all, I’d like to thank you for the time you put in to keep everyone updated with Cardinal hot-stove rumblings. The Post-Dispatch is my only link to Cardinal nation and I appreciate everything you do. That being said, I’m now going to take a shot at being a GM for moment instead of a chemist.  I think the Cards should trade one of their power-hitting outfielders to the Giants for a young starting pitcher. Now that the Giants have signed Randy Johnson, they may be willing to trade a Jonathan Sanchez or Matt Cain for the power bat they need in the outfield. Ryan Ludwick is our best trading chip and showed the best power last season of all the outfielders. Let’s trade Ludwick for Sanchez or put a package together of Ludwick and a minor leaguer for Cain. This would give the Cardinals a good, young, affordable starting pitcher and make room for the talented Mr. Rasmus. Should I retire from chemistry and seek a GM position or is this idea crazy? Let me know what you think.

A: Thanks, Dan, and not a bad idea although you might want to keep your day job. The Cardinals have many outfielders but only one of them finished the season healthy and righthanded and that was Ludwick. Mather had a broken bone in his left hand and the others are all lefthanded hitters, so if there is any trade it probably would involve a lefthanded-hitting outfielder. I always have been not to trade a regular player for a starting pitcher anyway.

***

Q: I’ve heard the Mets are signing Tim Redding for $2.25 million. That’s some sweet low-hanging fruit right there. Why don’t the Cards just ‘fess up and admit they are out of the free agent market? Is there an explanation why they could not sign a 10-game winner on a 62-win team? If Redding does not qualify as a very good bargain at $2.25, then what does? Commish, I hate to be so cynical, but are the Cards just blowing smoke at us?

Thanks, Mr. Hummel.

Roger

A: On the surface, this seems a legitimate sign, but the Cardinals just may not like what they’ve seen of Redding. He is, after all, 34-51 for his career.

***

Q: Mr. Hummel, Thank you for making a really dull off-season much more fun. We Cardinal fans have always been blessed with outstanding journalists. As many others have said, it is truly an honor to communicate with a “Hall of Fame” writer.
I have noticed that the current mood of the Cardinal Nation is very anti-owner/management because of their perceived frugal ways. Because ownership relies heavily on fan support, wouldn’t they be smart to make a deal soon, even if they had to pry a few extra bucks out of Dewallet. We have seen quite a few attractive players (including one of our own) that appeared to be within our means, slip away to other teams. I know that it isn’t smart to just make a deal to get the fans off their backs, but at some point in time they will surely do something anyway. I think most of us are sick of “keeping the powder dry” and “low hanging fruit”. Maybe less cliches and a little more action. Thank you for your “Hot Stove”, we fans really appreciate it!
Dave In Sunny Florida

A: Thanks, Dave. Yes, you’re not alone in feeling what you feel but I would suggest that you wait until we get into spring training even before breaking out in a rash.There are going to be pitchers out there between now and Opening Day. When to pull the trigger? That is the issue for the Cardinals. Their divisional competitors, other than the Cubs and Reds, haven’t done much either. And I don’t think Trevor Hoffman is the answer in Milwaukee. But you’re right to expect something sometime.

***

Q: Commish, thanks for all your insight — love your take in print and on the radio, too.
If the Cardinals deem themselves close to being a playoff-caliber team, then they are duty bound to make some moves. I understand they have not been able to pull the trigger on a few that would have made the off-season successful already — i.e. Fuentes wanted to play in California, people, get over it — but what should be their game plan and their backup plan, too. (a) sign free-agent starter  (b) trade for young starter (c) trade for lefty relievers
What young starters would you trade for? I like Sanchez from SF who could be had for some offense; I have heard Hughes from NY, but don’t want to give up Ankiel to get him. Baker from Minnesota for some offense and young prospects.
Who are the best trading chips beside Rasmus, Ankiel and Ludwick among Schumaker, Duncan, Anderson, Freese, Craig, Todd, etc?

Thanks!!

Trey

A: I like all three pitchers you mention, and thank you.  The best trading chips probably are Anderson, because he is a catcher, and Todd, because he is a pitcher, and both don’t make any money, nor are they hurt. But I think the next thing that will happen will be a free-agent pitcher signing. Sometime. . . in the next two months.

***

Q: As has been mentioned by DG, Tony seems very confident about Rasmus’ ability and is pretty much gushing about him.  I know Rasmus is our top prospect and I don’t doubt that he will eventually “elbow people aside”, but what Tony is saying this year seems completely different from last year when, if I remember correctly, he was lowering expectations about Rasmus.  Rasmus didn’t have the best season at Memphis last year, what with his slow start and his injury, though he did have that one stretch where he was really killing the ball.  But after having an off-season overall last year, why is Tony really that excited about Rasmus all of a sudden this year?  What revelation did he come to, or is he trying to boost Rasmus’ confidence after last year’s mediocre season?  And why isn’t he saying that Rasmus should be sent down for a bit more conditioning, so that he doesn’t do too much after his injury and to get him some more seasoning while he’s down there to get the at-bats he missed and make sure he’s actually ready for the majors?
Thanks again,
David

A: Sometimes, there’s no figuring what’s going on in TLR’s mind, but he does seem higher on Rasmus now than he did near the end of last season. I think he’s right in his assessment now. Things were a little rocky between the Rasmuses and the Cardinals last year, but all seems well now and Colby likely matured in an up-and-down season. La Russa knows that soon he will need Colby in the lineup to provide the speed-power dimension that this team doesn’t have.

***

Q: Mr. Hummel, I saw an article that said Japanese pitcher Kenshin Kawakami narrowed his choices down to three teams including the Cardinals. My question is what are the chances of the Cardinals signing him, and what kind of difference could he make? Thanks for all the insight.
-Jeremy

A: Thanks, Jeremy. Something must have been lost in the translation because I don’t hear much about Kawakami at Busch Stadium.

***

Q: Dear Mr. Hummel, as always, thank you for taking the time every day to answer our questions. I have a couple of questions for you today. The circumstances surrounding the loss of Aaron  Miles seem to be indicative of a developing trend with the Cards.  Since they reportedly got in on the bidding on Miles in the 11th hour and offered him a two-year contract worth around $4 million (?) they clearly felt that he was a guy who would help the team. When they identify a player who they believe will help the team, why don’t they just determine the player’s value and make him an offer, rather than waiting around and risking losing him?  I understand about wanting to save money, etc., but a number of players in the last couple of years have walked away feeling undervalued/unappreciated by the Cardinals organization (Eckstein, Weaver, Suppan) as a result of such tactics. What’s your opinion on this? Surely there’s a happy medium somewhere?
Second, Derrick Goold wrote in a recent blog that, according to TLR, there would be a competition for playing time at 2B. Other than Brendan Ryan, who do you see competing for that job, now that Miles and Lopez are gone?
Finally, what do you think of Josh Kinney’s potential to be an effective closer?
Thanks very much!
Lynda

A: I don’t know why the Cardinals got in late on the Miles negotiations other than they had pretty much decided they didn’t want to pay him $2 million a year or more as a backup and then changed their minds. Look for Joe Thurston, signed from Boston’s Triple-A team, to be a factor this spring, at second base. Josh Kinney doens’ t have the solid, reliable arm to close but he could be dynamite if used right in set-up situations and _ if he is healthy _ which he wasn’t for two years. You might note that of Eckstein, Weaver, Suppan. . . none has really been successful after leaving.

***

Q: Rick, now that the Cardinals have missed out on Brian Fuentes, are there any free agents that would make sense for them to sign?  I keep hearing about Brandon Lyon. What about Takashi Saito?  Would Saito be a realistic fit for the Cardinals?  Thanks.
MIke

A: If Saito would sign for one year and incentives, that might work out. I don’t see the Cardinals offering a two-year deal and they’re really skittish about bringing in guys with arm problems because they’ve guessed wrong lately on this score.

***

Q: Hello, Commish. Thank you for taking the time to help calm our anxiety about the upcoming season. What realistic options do you see for the 2009 bullpen? I believe many fans share my concerns that glaring needs have existed in the bullpen since, at least, June of last year and very little has been done to rectify the problems.
The upgrade at SS should be nice and another innings-eater in the rotation should help. But, this team fell out of contention because of all the blown saves and I (for one) do not see a solution to that problem on the horizon. I realize that Mo has not been on the job for very long, but his lack of movement with the bullpen could potentially cause another season of missing the playoffs. Can we realistically expect the Cardinals to execute a trade for a closer?
JR

A: I would say they probably won’t trade for one but may sign a pitcher who has closed. There aren’t many closers you would actually get in a trade. If a team has a good one, it will keep him.

***

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12 comments

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Referring to your answer to the first question, I think that the Cardinals best opportunity to make a trade for pitching is with using Ludwick. Right handed hitting OF’s seem to be in demand and with the exception of Manny Ramirez and his extreme salary demands there are none left in free agency. The fact that both the Rockies (for Holliday) and Atlanta (for Escobar or Johnson) indicated interest in Ludwick seems to confirm this. Replacing Ludwick should be able to be accomplished by one, or a platoon of the following: Mather, Barton, Stavinhoa, Schumacher (with Rasmus in CF), Jay, Duncan, Shane Robinson and later in the season posssibly Daryl Jones. Ankiel to someone like the Yankees is also a possibility, but I would like to see if they can sign him to an extension (Boras worked with the Cards to resign Lohse) or if he goes to free agency then the Cards should receive one or more high draft picks. Ludwick would not be free agency eligible for 2-3 years when he is well into his 30’s, thus not generating those draft picks, like Ankiel would, until when he free agency/arbitration offer value might be questionable.

Remember a few years ago the Cards made an excellent trade of JD Drew (one year from free agency) and Marrero for Wainwright, Marquis and King. That is the kind of trade I would like to see them make for Ludwick (preferrably) or Ankiel, and let the farm system/internal depth find the replacement for whoever is traded.

— Indiana Cardinal
8:45 am January 10th, 2009

Commish, there is a deal out there right now the cards should jump on. That is the rangers are trying to trade Michael Young. He is signed for five years/60 million. Rangers want Dye and the white sox’ top pitching prospect. We should build a package to compete. Young would solve ss problem long term and we could use Greene at second or flip him to another team. Do you think this is when Mo should jump on this and maybe have to trade a prospect he would rather keep? I think Young would be a great get and a reasonable price.

— roger from tahoe
9:04 am January 10th, 2009

Although cheaper, Tim Redding probably could not displace Joel Pineiro.

— Jim McGuire
9:46 am January 10th, 2009

It’s a great pleasure to get to chat with you about Cardinal baseball Mr. Hummel! Thanks for taking the time! In regard to some past Cardinal ball players leaving the Cardinals and signing with other teams during the winter months…for example, Suppan, Grudzelanek, Renteria, etc. It seems the Cards FO banks on the “good” charachter of these kind of ball players to sit and wait for the Cards to come to them knowing that if they wait long enough other teams will get their needs filled, which leaves the Cards the chips to bargain with leverage for deserving players at a discounted price. This kind of tactic plays on the “players desire to remain a Cardinal” and seems to insult the player eventually to the degree he signs with another team while showing dissappointment that comes off as disgust towards the Cards FO. Again, the Cards FO seems to bank a lot on players signing with them for less, based upon the good relationship the players have with the team and fans and the success they have enjoyed in St. Louis. From this fans standpoint, I think I know how the player must feel. ABANDONMENT FOR GOOD SERVICES RENDERED. There is no loyalty in baseball anymore. That is one of the “demon by-products” free agency has produced. Do you agree with all the above diagnosis and if so, do you think it makes an organization appear to be cheap or wise? Thanks again Mr. Hummel.

— drelboc
11:18 am January 10th, 2009

So the Cards replaced 2 bad lefties with what 3 or 4 more bad lefties,does that really help?

— Jeff
11:57 am January 10th, 2009

The Cardinals’ approach with left-handed pitchers is the same approach they’ve employed with second basemen for several years……..quantity, not quality.

— Big Lake Bubba
7:28 pm January 10th, 2009

I’ve resigned to the fact that the Cards are going to be bargain hunting for a “left-over” available free agent starting pitcher rather than sign someone like Oliver Perez.

It worked last season when they picked up Lohse and it might not be a bad idea, dollar-wise; but I’m losing hope in the team finishing higher than 4th in the division this season.

Your thoughts, please.

Mike Diersen
Ft. Worth, TX

— Mike Diersen
7:59 pm January 10th, 2009

Even if they don’t do anything else this off-season(which I doubt) the Cardinals would still probably finish higher than fourth. This is because 2 0f the teams that have done even less than the Cardinals are the Brewers and the Astros. The Brewers seem to be following the Cardinal’s blueprint of adding a few key free-agents to fill holes they can’t with their farm system and hoping some of their prospects can make rapid improvements. I don’t know
what the Astros are hoping for as their farm system is fairly bare.

— Sailor Jay
1:41 am January 11th, 2009

Sailor Jay,

The Astros have four players who will pull in at least a combined $60 million in 2009, leaving the team in scavenger mode. Sound familiar?

— Cardsballhawk
7:26 am January 11th, 2009

Okay, Cardinals. Just saw the interview on Channel 4 from MO. I’M FRIGGIN SICK OF COUNTING ON CARP! MY LORD—HOW CAN YOU SAY YOU ARE COUNTING ON THE GUY? THIS SH*T REALLY PI*S@S ME OFF! YOU IDIOT MOTH**%UC#@RS. $$CK YOU GUYS! YOU WON’T GET A FRIGGIN DIME FROM ME THIS SEASON UNLESS YOU SHOW SOMETHING SUBSTANTIAL BEFORE THE START OF THE SEASON. I have done nothing but give you guys the benefit of doubt this offseason—and I will give you a nice grade on the moves that have been made, but this constant line of bs about hoping some pitcher is healthy is enough to just say F%&k IT! I CAN SPEND MY LITTLE BIT OF CASH THAT WE CAN AFFORD TO SET ASSIDE IN THIS ECONOMY AND DO SOMETHING ELSE. UNTIL YOU PROVE YOURSELVES YOU ARE FU$%IN# DEAD TO ME!

— gateway-broker
10:55 pm January 11th, 2009

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