LAS VEGAS — Well past midnight at the Bellagio casino floor and clustered around the Baccarat Bar the buzz was whether or not the New York Mets had finalized a deal with closer Francisco Rodriguez. It was certain that they had offered — first two years and then, reportedly, a third — but Blackberries were clicking and iPhones glowing as MLB officials and reporters waited for witching-hour word that a contract was done.

Everyone appears to be eager for the market’s tipping point.

“My message to the market is I don’t have to wait,” St. Louis Cardinals general manager John Mozeliak said. “Given the lack of movement, the asking prices are still robust. Yet, the market itself wouldn’t bear that (price) given the lack of activity.”

Mozeliak, in his chat last night with the local media, described his team and others “getting to the crossroads” of deal. Later a industry source described it thusly: “Soon we’ll have a real idea if teams are ready to deal or still just interested in talking.” The market, like these Baseball Winter Meetings, were waiting for the first big-ticket deal to kickoff the festivities. Rodriguez would be that signing, setting quickly the market for closers and helping to define the market in general (especially when it comes to the length of his deal). SI.com Jon Heyman wrote early this morning that it’s close.

As colleague Joe Strauss wrote in this morning’s paper, the Cardinals acknowledged that their starting lineup is “in essence” set when it comes to opening day and their position players. Added Mozeliak: “There’s a high probability that that is what it looks like on April 6th.” This is that lineup:

1. Adam Wainwright, RHP
2. Yadier Molina, C
3. Albert Pujols, 1B
4. Adam Kennedy, 2B
5. Troy Glaus, 3B
6. Khalil Greene, SS
7. Skip Schumaker, LF
8. Rick Ankiel, CF
9. Ryan Ludwick, RF

The one area in flux is the outfield. The Cardinals are shopping one of their lefthanded-hitting outfielders, and Ankiel has drawn attention, notably from the Braves. The Cardinals what a pitcher in exchange — and various rumors has them talking Blaine Boyer or Mike Gonzalez, according to Fox Sports, or Charlie Morton — for any of the outfielders they may deal. Mozeliak described the trade market for a ninth-inning arm as difficult. He said it’s unlikely they would find a closer that route, though Strauss also suggested that a deal could be had for a setup reliever who could close.

Atlanta manager Bobby Cox said things have gone well with John Smoltz recovery and that “the interest with John and us is (him) as a starter.” He then went onto add that he saw Gonzalez as their closer and that he would benefit from coming into the season with the label.

“Nothing but upside for him,” Cox said to a group of us reporters. “He goes in knowing he’s the closer.”

And that brings us back to Rodriguez.

If the record-setting closer is close — completed? — to that deal with the Mets then mill will begin churning on where Brian Fuentes fits, where Kerry Wood fits and where exactly the Cardinals can go to find a closer. And if it will cost them someone from that “in essence” starting lineup.

“I don’t want to settle,” Mozeliak said. “I can be patient.”

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