McEntee, Barone, on blue-collar voters
WASHINGTON — Gerald McEntee, president of the American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees, is labor’s most experienced political leader. He was among the first to recognize the potential of a young presidential longshot from Arkansas named Bill Clinton. Four years ago, McEntee took some heat for backing Howard Dean, then backing away from him. But now, McEntee, who is among Hillary Clinton’s strongest supporters, is remaining rock solid for Clinton even as others say Barack Obama has the nomination all but won.
Arguing electability, McEntee says that when the hoopla has died down, the general election will look much like recent ones. It will be close — with John McCain succeeding in establishing his independence from George Bush — and it will come down to traditional swing states like Ohio.
“It seems to me it’ll be the kind of election where it’s 51-49 percent and it won’t be a runaway for anyone,” McEntee says. Obama will retain his support from some traditional Democratic Party groups, such as African-Americans and “high-class intellectuals,” McEntee says. But working-class voters, especially those with rural roots, are another matter, he contends.
“He has a real problem, as did Al Gore, as did John Kerry, in rural-type America, all through Appalachia — through Kentucky, West Virginia, Ohio, Pennsylvania — and he cannot connect with those people. Clinton can connect with them, and she has demonstrated she can win those kind of states.”
But does Clinton stand a chance of getting the nomination?
McEntee cites the popular vote and the prospect that Clinton will be ahead in that area. “She’ll win in Puerto Rico, and something reasonable has to be done in Florida and Michigan…”
Fine, but will the superdelegates listen?
“I think people have to listen, after Kentucky and after West Virginia, and after the upcoming elections. I’m not sure about South Dakota and Montana, but I feel quite confident about Puerto Rico, which has 55 delegates,” McEntee says. He adds that AFSCME is the largest union on the island, with 22,000 members, and that he recently spent five days there.
Michael Barone, who wrote the book on American politics — literally, since he’s the author of The Almanac of American politics — shares the view that Obama’s difficulty in attracting working-class support is real. He suggests that Obama’s cerebral manner has its upside and downside in political terms.
“It seems to me Obama’s got a problem with the white working-class voters, call them what you will, for reasons that are similar to why he attracts so many of these young and upscale voters,” Barone, of the American Enterprise Institute, says.
“The kind of almost academic discourse that he talks about, the appeal to inspiration without a whole lot in the way of specifics, the lack of truculence and sort of a fighting spirit — I think these are things that work for him with some groups and against him with the group you’re talking about.”
So McEntee in 50%/50% in his choice of backing primary candidates. He is parroting the Clinton line about “electability” as if Senator Clinton is the most “electable”. Here is the problem thus far, Senator Clinton is behind in the delegate count and the popular vote. What does this say about “electability”? Oh, that’s right, she cannot count Florida and Michigan yet can she.
Now Senator Obama may have difficulties in the so-called “white working class” voter. He will have his work cut out for him here. However, the Democrats will be spending every turn reminding this particular group just which party and President put them in their dire straits. It will not be a cake-walk by any stretch of the imagination, but is this what politics is all about — the ability to persuade and sway people to join your side.