Bruce Weber followed his team’s loss at Minnesota by telling the Illini their three biggest games of the Big Ten season were quickly approaching. But they’re not the games most fans would have identified.

On Weber’s list: Iowa at home (already a win) and this week’s road games against Northwestern on Thursday night and Indiana on Sunday afternoon.

The reasons remain a bit sketchy. Maybe Weber thought these were trap games that might make his players overconfident. Maybe it’s that Illinois needs some road wins to stay near the top of the Big Ten.

Either way, Weber knows that nothing about the Big Ten is a certainty, even when it comes to a team the Illini almost always beat and a team that is at the bottom of the conference. That seems to be more true than any season in recent memory. Teams that are up one week have found themselves sinking the next.

In the past, Illinois might have been able to get away with an off night against Northwestern, but that won’t be possible this season.

“I don’t think there’s any doubt that the league is so balanced and unpredictable that you have to be ready every game,” Weber said. “Michigan State goes and loses twice at home unexpectedly. Penn State loses two in a row, one at home to Wisconsin, which lost six in a row.

“Every time you try to figure it out, something is going to happen that screws up your theory. An even keel is important, not getting too high or too low. Avoiding a big valley is important.”

Illinois has avoided a valley. The Illini are the only team other than Michigan State that has not suffered two consecutive conference losses. As bad as they looked in those defeats at Minnesota and Wisconsin, they didn’t compound the problem.

But consider these shifts in momentum that already have occurred in the Big Ten:

–Minnesota started Big Ten play 4-1 but lost four of its next six games before struggling to beat Indiana at home on Tuesday;

–Michigan won nonconference games against Duke and UCLA and started the Big Ten 3-1 but lost five of its next six games;

–Penn State started 2-3 before jumping into the race with four consecutive wins, including at Michigan State. The Nittany Lions have lost their last two;

–Wisconsin won its first three conference games and was on the brink of a national ranking before suffering through a six-game losing streak;

–Michigan State is in first place thanks to a 6-0 conference road mark, but the Spartans somehow managed to lose at home to Penn State and Northwestern;

–Northwestern looked typically weak for the Big Ten, starting 0-4. Then the Wildcats reeled off five wins in six games, beating Minnesota and Michigan State.

With all of that in mind, Weber probably sees “trap” written all over the next two games.

“We can’t take anyone for granted,” he said. “We haven’t played well on the road. … I hope our mental state is good. I don’t want to go in tentative and scared, but I want to have a little knot in the stomach and good preparation.”