Better chances for an expansion team?
Ottawa officially threw its hat in the ring yesterday, but according to the New York Times, the league might go straight to 20 teams, with four teams being added in the next few years.
The 14-team league, which will add a team in Seattle next year and another in Philadelphia for the 2010 season, could award teams to four cities — a departure from the previously announced goal of having an 18-team league in 2011. According to several executives involved in the expansion process, M.L.S. will add two teams for the 2011 season, perhaps in New York and St. Louis, and then jump to 20 teams in either 2012 or 2013, possibly putting teams in Vancouver, British Columbia; and Portland, Ore.
and then…
The group from St. Louis already has a public/private financing plan approved to build a retail and soccer complex in suburban Illinois, just over the Mississippi River from St. Louis. That group, led by the lawyer Jeff Cooper, is also fielding a team in the new women’s league, Women’s Professional Soccer, and has a development academy that currently has an enrollment of almost 6,000 boys and girls.
Cooper has doggedly pursued an M.L.S. team, but last year at M.L.S. Cup in Washington league officials told him his group needed more investors with deeper pockets. That matter has apparently been addressed, although Cooper said he would not yet divulge the investors’ names, even to M.L.S. officials.
Cooper remains optimistic. He told me yesterday he would hold off on submitting the application until closer to the deadline of Oct. 15 just in case there were any late-breaking developments. With the cities that are applying now, the league faces some tough choices, especially if New York is in the mix. There are some very appealing cities there, all of which are on the league’s want list. (Team in the Midwest? Check. Second team in New York? Check. Team in the Pacific Northwest? Check. And maybe check again.)
I think Ottawa is a longshot, but no one thought they would get the NHL team when they did. If the league is looking to go to 20 on an accelerated schedule, I think St. Louis’ chances are really good.
One factor you might be overlooking in regards to the Ottawa bid is the potential that the league might be seeking a second Canadian franchise. Don Garber has stated in the past that he is intrigued by the possibilities of an expanded Canadian market. He specifically has mentioned the desire to strengthen the national TV contract in Canada. Maybe the next expansion will be divided along a north - south axis with one Canadian team and one American coming in (have four come in in 2011, as the Times is suggesting, is not feasible. The player pool could not handle that type of change without significantly increasing the salary cap).
In that context Ottawa’s bid must be viewed in comparison with Vancouver’s and Montreal’s. And St. Louis’ bid must be viewed against the other American cities.
(a quick note here to those with an American protectionist attitude - the league doesn’t share your view. Canada is a part of the league’s territory now).
I’m not sure why the league would want to go into New York for a second team when you consider the lack of support the current team already gets. Portland has the soccer culture going for it, but is likely too small of a market. I suspect the top American bids come from those two cities along with St. Louis. If St. Louis gets its investors in line the franchise is its to lose.
Montreal and St. Louis. If I were a betting man, that is.