Thanks to my brethren, the striking writers, this year’s Golden Globes ceremony was reduced to a glorified press conference, with no drunken celebrities testing their Oscar credentials. Maybe the embarrassing broadcast and dismal ratings will be enough to permanently take the luster off the Golden Globes, which have always been a joke.

The Globes are presented by a group called the Hollywood Foreign Press Association (HFPA), which only has about 90 members–compared to about 5,800 for the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS), which votes on the Oscars. Many of the members of the HFPA members are photographers, not writers or critics, and the group is notoriously susceptible to bribery. That’s why, in 1981, Pia Zadora was named Most Promising Newcomer after her millionaire husband flew HFPA members to his casino in Las Vegas.

While it’s fun to see the stars loosen up for the boozy Golden Globes ceremony, and the studios are eager to tout the winners in ads, the awards are a less reliable predictor of Oscar success than the film-industry’s own guild awards. The plurality of members in AMPAS are actors, so when the Screen Actors Guild honors a performer, that’s a good sign that he or she is going to win an Oscar. The Directors Guild and the Producers Guild are also more reliable than the Globes. And this year, the British version of the Oscars, the BAFTAS, are being closely watched for Oscar trends.

Of course, even a stopped clock is right twice a day, and the Golden Globe winners are not necessarily laughable. Plus, the HFPA hedges its bets by dividing the nominees into drama and comedy/musical categories, giving them twice as much chance of honoring someone who will eventually win an Oscar.

Although I’d be be shocked if AMPAS named the over-rated “Atonement” as best picture, as the HPFA did, I’d be willing to bet that Oscars will go to the four actors who won Golden Globes for dramatic acting: Daniel Day Lewis for “There Will Be Blood,” Julie Christie for “Away from Her,” Javier Bardem for “No Country for Old Men” and Cate Blanchett for “I’m Not There.” But that just means that the members of the HPFA are smart enough to follow the conventional wisdom. And now the conventional wisdom is that the Golden Globes have outlived their usefulness.