Weather forecasters predict that September will be a very active month for hurricanes in the Atlantic (and Gulf of Mexico), with conditions prime for the formation of many storms.  Right now there are a remarkable 4 named storms in the Atlantic realm (see image above, from National Hurricane Center), including Gustave, Hanna, Ike, and Josephine. 

 Top hurricane forecasters, including William Gray, are predicitng that September will see twice as many hurricanes as normal, perhaps with four hurricanes, two of them major. 

Satellite  Image of Gustav making landfall in Louisiana this morning.

Gustav weakened slightly and made landfall about 10:30 this morning near Cocodrie Louisiana, near major oil facilities at Port Fourchon, where 56% of US oil imports pass though.  The storm is just skirting New Orleans 7o miles away, but the storm surge is reportedly already topping some levees, including the Industrial Canal that failed in 2005 during Katrina.  Flodding from water going over the tops of levees is much less severe than if the levee fails, so we hope that the levees hold.  The National Weater Service and Hurricane Center predict that the storm may stall over NE Texas however, so there may be a prolonged period of heavy rain and wind in the region.  Earthen levees, like many in the New Orleans area, become weaker the longer the high water, rain, and storms affect them, so great caution is still urged until the storm passes.  There are other reports coming in from reporters of other levees being overtopped, it is much too early to tell the extent of the damage.  Luckily, the storm weakened considerably from its category 4 strength (winds > 150 mph) to a category 2 (winds of 110 mph) just before landfall.

Hurricane Gustav experienced remarkable strengthening in the past 24 hours, going from a tropical storm to a category 4/borderline 5 monster storm.  The eye has passed over Cuba, and the storm will be moving over warm waters of the southern Gulf of Mexico (graphic above from the NWS Ocean Prediction Center), and is on a course to the Gulf coast, somewhere between Texas and Florida, with a 90% chance of tropical storm force winds and major flooding hitting New Orleans.  Mayor Nagin has said this could be the storm of the century, worse than Katrina, and has, thankfully, ordered a full evacuation of the city.

The water vapor image (from National Weather Service) shows this is a massive storm that will bring flooding rains, high winds, and a potentially devasting tidal surge.  Category 4-5 storms can have storm surges of 13 - >20 feet above the average sea surface height, with large waves on top of that.  Read more about hurricanes at: The Coast: Hazardous Interactions within the Coastal Environment, available on line at Facts on File or Barnes and Noble. 

The Coast

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Hazardous Interactions within the Coastal Environment

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Hazardous Interactions within the Coastal Environment

Authored by Timothy Kusky, Ph.D.

The Hazardous Earth Set, 8-Volumes

Published: 7/1/2008
ISBN-10: 0816064679
ISBN-13: 978-0-8160-6467-0
Format: Hardcover
Dewey Number:
Reading Level: Grades 6 - 12
List Price: $39.50
Libraries Save: 10%
Discount Price: $35.55
Status: Available

Summary

Coastlines offer some of the best scenery and recreation areas, yet they also rank among the most hazardous areas to live. The world’s coastline extends for about 273,000 miles, and nearly half of the world’s population lives within 60 miles of the shoreline. The coastal zone is extremely critical for the world’s economy, culture, and future survival, but it is also one of the most hazardous environments and the site of most of the world’s deadliest disasters.

The Coast focuses on the characteristic landforms and environments found in the coastal zone as well as the processes that form these landforms. Coverage also includes the many coastal hazards that threaten our environment, including cliff erosion from wave and storm action, the hazards associated with powerful tides, and the consequences of long-shore sediment transport. In addition to an examination of some of the worst coastal disasters that have occurred from 1900 to 2007—including Hurricanes Katrina and Rita, a special chapter is devoted to the city of New Orleans, including its geological and natural history and why it is so at risk for coastal disasters. Enhanced with vivid photographs taken by the author, this book is a must for middle and high school students with an interest in this fascinating topic.

Chapters include:

• Characteristic Landforms and Environments of the Coastal Zone
• Origin of Coastal Hazards: Coastal Processes
• Effects of Rising Sea Levels and Coastal Subsidence
• Examples of Coastal Hazards and Disasters (1900–2007)
• New Orleans: The City Most at Risk for Coastal Disaster in the United States.

Magnitude 5.7 ( Some sources including in both Chinese and English say magnitude 6.1) earthquake, hit 50 km southeast of Panzhihua city in the southwestern corner of Sichuan province on Saturday. Media reports at least 22 people have been killed and more than 100 injured after an earthquake struck the region. More than 1,000 homes were destroyed by the quake and about 400 suffered damage, China’s Xinhua state media reported. Strong shock was also felt in in the neighbouring Yunnan province. In May, 2008, parts of Sichuan province were destroyed by an earthquake that killed about 70,000 people.

While tropical storm Gustav is threating to strengthen and move into the Gulf coast somewhere between Texas and Florida early next week, Tropical storm Hanna is moving towards the Bahamas and probably eventually Florida.  Residents of New Orleans are particularly worried about Gustav, as this storms most-likely trajectory is similar to Hurricane Katrina, that devasted the city three years ago today. Much of New Orleans lies below sea level, and the repairs to the levee system are still several years and many billions of dollars from completion.  Many residents did not move back after Katrina, others feel safe living below sea level, until large hurricanes bring 20 foot storm surges and large waves that batter the levee system. Keep a close eye on both of these storms, the whole region is still water-logged from tropical storm Fay.

Tropical storm Gustav strengthened Monday night and is now a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 85 mph.  The National Hurricane Center  predicts that Gustav will move over the western end of Cuba in the next couple of days, then into the warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico, where it will gradually turn toward the NW or N, and could make landfall somewhere on the US Gulf coast.  It is early to know if, when and where Gustav may strike, but this storm has potential to become strong and to bring high storm surges, wind, and rains to coastal areas. 

The National Weather Service’s Hurricane Center is predicting that Fay will make a third landfall in Florida today, somewhere near Daytona beach. The image above is an infrared image of Fay taken at 7:15 AM, thursday, Aug. 21.

In response to high gas prices, the Bush administration and its allies are calling for new oil drilling that would take decades and eventually save only pennies-per-gallon.

Meanwhile, Bush’s Department of Transportation is undermining historic new fuel economy standards. They unrealistically assume gas will cost around $2.50 through 2020 and that hybrid vehicles won’t even exist until 2014. Because the agency balances the cost of new fuel economy technology against the gas savings the new technology provides, these outrageous assumptions are being used by the administration to reduce the automakers’ requirement to bring more fuel-efficient options to consumers.

According to the administration’s own analysis, if they simply used a more realistic gas price, the standards would save consumers enough fuel to equal about a dollar per gallon discount at the pump. This would dwarf the miniscule price drop from oil produced through new drilling without the environmental consequences of feeding our addiction to oil.

Although their language is sometimes a little hyperbolic, the UCS claims are right on target. If you want to get involved and write your member of congress, the UCS has made it easy - they have a letter you can edit and immediately send to your congressional representative when you go to: take action