02.12.2008 10:19 pm

Earthquake prediction with remote sensing

A strong earthquake shook southern Mexico on Tuesday, causing panic and minor damage to buildings and prompting an oil refinery to shut down as a precaution (MSNBC). New techniques in satellite remote sensing show promise to help predict earthquakes and warn residents before they happen.

Recent advances in geospatial technology, especially in remote sensing, may allow scientists to monitor earthquake cycles and surface deformation using radar interferometry, but also forecast earthquake events from 6 to 24 days before the shock happens (source). Such a prediction can be obtained using thermal anomalies derived from operational satellite data in the infrared domain.

Daily surface temperature can be estimated at spatial resolution of 0.5-5km and with uncertainties of 0.12-0.5 °C from modern space-borne sensors. Heat, water vapor and gas reached the Earth’s surface as a result of near surface tectonic motion and lithosphere-atmospheric interactions increase the surface temperature. Therefore, these thermal anomalies signal the impending earthquake. It is especially sensitive to the crustal earthquakes with magnitude of greater than 4.5.

At the same time, do not forget, earthquake prediction is a very controversial issue. Many scientists believe earthquake prediction is impossible (here). So, this is the forum to comment, it is good to discuss such a controversial issues among interested colleagues.

Reference:

Tronin, A.A. 2006. Remote sensing and earthquakes: a review. Physics and Chemistry of the Earth, 31:138-142

Tags: earthquake prediction, remote sensing

10 comments

Comments are closed.

Blog Comments: Rules of the Road

It sounds like this technique should be used to try to save lives in earthquake prone areas. Has this been used successfully anywhere?

— gao

6:26 am February 13th, 2008

Hi Gao,
Yes, there are a numerous research has been done around the world and a number of academic papers in literature. Prediction of the destructive Bam earthquake in Iran may be an example for satellite prediction of earthquakes. Please check the following paper for more information.

Tronin, A.A. 2006. Remote sensing and earthquakes: a review. Physics and Chemistry of the Earth, 31:138-142

— Abduwasit Ghulam

8:25 am February 13th, 2008

How could get the exact date when the earthquake will happen just by thermal anomaly predicted using remote sensing? It sounds impossible.

— Michele

10:03 am February 13th, 2008

Hi Michele,
You are right! It is impossible to foresee the exact day when earthquake occurs by thermal anomalies. However, remote sensing can predict impending event. Though, we dont know the exat day, we can tell earthquake is imminent so that people can have preparation for the catastrophe. This saves life.

— Abduwasit Ghulam

9:05 pm February 13th, 2008

It seems using Interferometry Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) imagery can forecast the earth quake. InSAR can measure the deformation of earth surface, and if we know the interseismic deformation along faults and the relationship between the deforming accumulation and earthquake ocurrence, we can predict it. am I right, Abduwasit? Waiting for your more detailed explanation.

— Qiao

11:55 am February 14th, 2008

Unfortunately, earthquake prediction can not be done with radar. Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) or Differential InSAR maps generated from two or more repeat pass radar data recorded before and after the earthquake even and DEM measure surface displacements, subsidence at centimeter accuracy. However, it is not capable for the prediction of earthquakes.
In contrast, thermal remote sensing can help to do that based on the relationships between surface temperature anomalies and the sub ground chemical, physical processes and movements. Still, I know the prediction is a controversial issue among the scientists.

— Abduwasit Ghulam

1:17 pm February 14th, 2008

Have you done any studies on the New Madrid fault? What have you learned?
Thanks, Pete.

— Pete

11:34 am February 15th, 2008

1. I am not a geologist or earthquake expert and have not done any research on new Madrid fault or any earthquake prediction. I presented this topic here due to a great curios on the reported publications and to discuss with geologists or earthquake experts if remote sensing can really help in this field.
2. Actually, I know, this is a huge controversial issue. Despite there are some research have been done and some reports have been published on the successful prediction of earthquakes ( http://www.srces.spb.org/tronin/seis/prediction/index.html ), it is the belief among many scientists that earthquake prediction can not be done http://www.nature.com/nature/debates/earthquake/equake_frameset.html.

— Abduwasit Ghulam

1:09 pm February 15th, 2008

Hi, you can read and learn a lot about earthquakes, and monitor the New Madrid Seismic Network by logging on to the Saint Louis University Earthquake Center web site:

http://www.eas.slu.edu/Earthquake_Center/

— Tim Kusky

2:15 pm February 15th, 2008

petroleum refining industry…

Thanks for the nice read, keep up the interesting posts…..

— petroleum refining industry

3:46 am March 5th, 2008