What’s your take on the ‘07 economy?
As I announced in Sunday’s column, I’m now accepting entries for the 2007 Economic Challenge. It requires you to submit four predictions:
– The growth rate of gross domestic product from the fourth quarter of 2006 to the fourth quarter of 2007.
– The unemployment rate in December 2007.
– The percent change in the Consumer Price Index from December 2006 to December 2007.
– The year-end closing value for the Dow Jones industrial average.
To enter, email me by clicking the link at the top of this post. If you want to make your predictions public, post them as a comment. But please send me an email, too, with a phone number so I’ll be able to contact you if you’re a winner. The prize will be a Post-Dispatch merchandise prize (a T-shirt or coffee mug or something of that ilk) with no great monetary value, but you’ll be praised in print and you’ll have bragging rights for a whole year.
One reader emailed to say he doesn’t even know where the economy is today, let alone where it will be next year. So, to help him and others, here’s where those four indicators are right now:
– GDP, third quarter ‘05 to third quarter ‘06, is up 3.0%.
– Unemployment in November was 4.5%.
– CPI, November ’05 to November ’06, was up 2.0%.
– The Dow, near midday today, is at 12,461.
Entries must be postmarked or time-stamped Dec. 31 or earlier.



David Nicklaus has covered St. Louis business for more than 25 years. His column appears three days a week on the Post-Dispatch business page.
OK, I’ll play, despite the fact that I only marginally base my own investment decisions on relatively short-term predictions like this.
GDP growth 2.2%
Unemployment 4.8%
CPI up 3.0%
DJIA 13,100