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06.25.2007 4:21 pm

What to watch for from the Fed

St. Louis Post-Dispatch

There’s no mystery about what the  Federal Reserve will do with interest-rate policy at a meeting this week: It’s widely expected to keep the overnight federal funds rate at 5.25 percent, where it’s been for a year now.

That lack of suspense doesn’t keep market pros from looking for nuances in the Fed’s policy statement, which will be issued Thursday afternoon. I asked David Darst, chief investment strategist at Morgan Stanley’s global wealth management group, what he’ll be watching for, and this was his checklist:

  • The strength of the language concerning inflation. (In May, the Fed’s statement said inflation remained “somewhat elevated” but that inflationary pressures “seem likely to moderate over time.”
  • Any mention of financial-market conditions, especially in the wake of Bear Stearns’ bailout of two hedge funds.
  • References to the housing market.

   If the  housing  slump gets deep enough and long enough, Darst still thinks the Fed may have to cut interest rates. A statement emphasizing inflation, on the other hand, may point to rate increases down the road. “I would be looking for whether they are going to stay right down the midle of the fairway, or are they going to emphsize the risks one way or another,” Darst said.

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The “slump” in the housing market in some areas is the result of previous inflation in the price of housing in those areas, stimulated in large part by excessively easy credit. I hope that the Fed is smart enough to let that market correct itself, rather than to make credit easier for the overall economy and thereby set up inflationary conditions throughout the economy.

If you are somebody who works in the housing industry and are facing unemployment, the strategy to follow is to cut the price of your services to address the reduced demand and stay employed.

— Ted44
9:11 am June 26th, 2007