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09.25.2007 6:17 pm

Social Security report contains some sobering numbers

St. Louis Post-Dispatch

You have to give Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson Jr. credit: In spite of stiff Democratic opposition to his administration’s brand of Social Security reform, he’s still trying. His Treasury Department issued the first in a series of “issue briefs” on the subject yesterday, and Paulson issued a statement saying he hopes that the papers “will narrow the divide and spur further discussions of reform.”

The issue brief says that, using a perpetual time horizon,  Social Security faces a shortfall of $13.6 trillion in present-value terms, equal to about 3.5 percent of future taxable payrolls. That’s much bigger than the most frequently cited figure from the Social Security Administration itself, which is that the system has a $5.1 trillion shortfall over the next 75 years. (That’s 1.95 percent of taxable payrolls over the 75-year period.)

It’s possible to close the 75-year gap with a 13 percent reduction in benefits or a 1.95 percentage point increase in the payroll tax rate. But that wouldn’t solve the problem for all time, the Treasury says:

… estimates made over a 75-year horizon do not  fully capture the financial status of the Social Security program. In fact, no finite forecast period completely embodies the financial status of the program because people pay taxes in advance of receiving benefits; at any finite cutoff date, people will have been promised benefits that have not yet been paid.

The report says it’s much cheaper to deal with the problem today  than to put it off. For example, a tax increase of 3.5 percentage points would make Social Security solvent now, but if we wait until the Social Security Trust Fund runs out of money in 2041, an increase of 5.8 percentage points would be needed.

Ignoring the problem won’t make it go away, either:

More rapid economic growth cannot, by itself, close Social Security’s infinite-horizon financing gap. Realistic increases in productivity or population growth are simply not sufficient to have more than a modest effect on the program’s long-range shortfall, especially over the very long term.

Judging from this AP story, it doesn’t sound like the report will do much to close the partisan divide. Harry Reid, the Senate majority leader, is quoted as saying the report “is a reminder of President Bush’s determination to not only privatize Social Security but to make deep cuts in the benefits that American workers have earned.”

 

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15 comments

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My only comment, to help balance the reporting on the Social Security issue, is to suggest that readers google Commissioner Ball regarding the future of Social Security. Wake up, America!

— whiterosesociety
7:13 am September 26th, 2007

I have a difficult time believing social security is in trouble. With record numbers of workers each year, where has this taxpayer money gone? Unless the money entered into this account has been used for purposes it is not supposed to be… like other government wanted projects, illegal immigrants, and wellfare folks… I should be able to retire without a problem. When Roosevelt first started this program it was to help us in our retirement years. Now government wants us to work until we’re 70! Forget it! With the trillions of dollars we spend outside the country on non-Americans, maybe we should put this money where part of it belongs… to our seniors!

— Tomar
12:41 pm September 26th, 2007

Good points! It is all a matter of priorities. Look at all of the money to fuel the endless war machine, the military-industrial complex that Ike Eisenhower warned us against! Trillions to kill, but little, comparatively speaking, to heal. We throw our blood and treasure down the black hole that is Iraq, while our country’s infrastructure is crumbling, our children go without healthcare access, and our veterans receive shabby care. Blackwater mercenaries get rich, while our troops make a whole lot less! Our priorities are upside down in our beloved country. There is a big push to privatize Social Security by those who want to feed Wall Street. We tried that before: check out the Roaring Twenties/Great Depression. We had old and poor people selling apples on the roadside to make ends meet; that’s why we set up Social Security in the first place–to put a social safety net in place for the people. Do we want the one per cent who currently own/control over fifty per cent of our national wealth to get an even bigger slice of the pie? It is all about priorities, folks! Do we want what is best for the greater good, or only for the greedy few, like the Chamber of Commerce/Fortune 500/Show-Me Institute types? Wake up, America!

— whiterosesociety
12:53 pm September 26th, 2007

A big part of the shortfall is from the benefits paid to people whose net payments exceeded their net payments into the system. Instead of the estate tax going towards the general fund, why isn’t the estate tax directed into the social security fund to recapture the difference in payments? This would amount to a pre- and post-funding of social security benefits such that on average people would pay into the system what they receive.

— Kurtis
1:29 pm September 26th, 2007

The crackpots are out in full force today. Social Security was doomed from the word go. It is and will remain a Ponzii Scheme. WRS, since you are fond of Google, look up Ida Mae Fuller. She paid $24 into SS and took out nearly $24,000. She was the first to receive ongoing payments. That first example should have been a big wake up but no, we think SS is just a peachy program.

— Amazedbythelunacy
3:37 pm September 26th, 2007

And what is your alternative, selling apples on the street corner? Those who forget the past are doomed to repeat it. Milton Friedman, the Show-Me Institute, and the Chamber of Commerce want us to return to an era of 14 hour workdays, no unions, and Robber Barons. Wake up, America!

— whiterosesociety
7:00 pm September 26th, 2007

Here’s the economic reality about Social Security.

Social Security is, and always has been, a program for transferring money from people who are actively working to those who are retired. Because this sounds “socialistic,” it has been “sold” to people as being like a personal savings account, but in fact it is a government wealth transfer program that works in real time.

The only “Ponzi scheme” aspect of it is that the ratio of working people paying into the fund, to retired people being paid out of the fund, has been increasing (despite relatively minor increases in the age of eligibility to receive benefits). This changing ratio is a fact of demographics — not the result of some scheme by the government. Demographic reality is necessarily going to impose a greater financial burden on working people, to support retired people, no matter what part of the financing is done through the Social Security program and what part is done by working people purchasing the private financial assets of retired people. (Working people do this to some extent whenever they make investments in stocks and bonds.)

The rather paradoxical thing about the Social Security program is that it is regressive in some ways and progressive in others.

The regressive part is that Social Security revenues are collected from a regressive tax on employment earnings. Since revenues exceed outlays, the excess is used to supplement general federal revenues (which are arguably collected through more progressive taxes). This is done through the “Social Security Trust Fund,” which OF NECESSITY is really nothing more than an accounting device for tallying transfers between the Social Security account and the general fund. Around 2018, money will start flowing back from the general fund into the Social Security program and correct one aspect of this lack of progressivity.

On the other hand, Social Security is somewhat progressive for people who live long enough to collect their benefits, in that low income people receive a higher rate of return on their contributions than higher income people. It’s not a criticism, but simply an observation that most of this “higher return” is actually just compensation for the inflation that has occurred since retirees made their contributions to the program.

The fact that the real purchasing power of Social Security benefits has also increased is sort of a way of sharing the overall increase in Americans’ purchasing power with retirees. I see that as one feature of Social Security that will need to be curtailed in the future because of the changes in demographics — and for various fundamental reasons, “privatizing” Social Security would only subject retirees to greater financial risk without increasing their purchasing power.

— Ted44
10:46 am September 27th, 2007

There is always the much maligned option of “Means Testing.”

— Bob
4:39 pm September 27th, 2007

Regarding post #8 — Social Security benefits ARE essentially means tested. Above a certain income level, Social Security benefits (actually, 85% of them) are added to taxable income. In effect, the benefits are reduced by what they add to a person’s income tax.

The advantage of doing it this way is that it reduces complexity, since there is no need to file income data with the Social Security Administration so that they can do the “means testing.”

— Ted44
1:35 pm September 28th, 2007

Ted, what part of how a Ponzi scheme works do you not understand. Lets use me as the constant in an example.

I have paid into SS now for 20 years. The money I paid in goes to someone else(supposed surplus). When I reach 67.5 in 33 more years, I need some workers to put money in so that I will then be able to take it out. If not enough workers are present then to support me and people my age, the system collapses. Spitting image of a ponzi scheme.

— Amazedbythelunacy
2:05 pm October 2nd, 2007

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