Social Security report contains some sobering numbers
You have to give Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson Jr. credit: In spite of stiff Democratic opposition to his administration’s brand of Social Security reform, he’s still trying. His Treasury Department issued the first in a series of “issue briefs” on the subject yesterday, and Paulson issued a statement saying he hopes that the papers “will narrow the divide and spur further discussions of reform.”
The issue brief says that, using a perpetual time horizon, Social Security faces a shortfall of $13.6 trillion in present-value terms, equal to about 3.5 percent of future taxable payrolls. That’s much bigger than the most frequently cited figure from the Social Security Administration itself, which is that the system has a $5.1 trillion shortfall over the next 75 years. (That’s 1.95 percent of taxable payrolls over the 75-year period.)
It’s possible to close the 75-year gap with a 13 percent reduction in benefits or a 1.95 percentage point increase in the payroll tax rate. But that wouldn’t solve the problem for all time, the Treasury says:
… estimates made over a 75-year horizon do not fully capture the financial status of the Social Security program. In fact, no finite forecast period completely embodies the financial status of the program because people pay taxes in advance of receiving benefits; at any finite cutoff date, people will have been promised benefits that have not yet been paid.
The report says it’s much cheaper to deal with the problem today than to put it off. For example, a tax increase of 3.5 percentage points would make Social Security solvent now, but if we wait until the Social Security Trust Fund runs out of money in 2041, an increase of 5.8 percentage points would be needed.
Ignoring the problem won’t make it go away, either:
More rapid economic growth cannot, by itself, close Social Security’s infinite-horizon financing gap. Realistic increases in productivity or population growth are simply not sufficient to have more than a modest effect on the program’s long-range shortfall, especially over the very long term.
Judging from this AP story, it doesn’t sound like the report will do much to close the partisan divide. Harry Reid, the Senate majority leader, is quoted as saying the report “is a reminder of President Bush’s determination to not only privatize Social Security but to make deep cuts in the benefits that American workers have earned.”



David Nicklaus has covered St. Louis business for more than 25 years. His column appears three days a week on the Post-Dispatch business page.
My only comment, to help balance the reporting on the Social Security issue, is to suggest that readers google Commissioner Ball regarding the future of Social Security. Wake up, America!