02.12.2008 2:30 pm
A recession index approaches the zero line
St. Louis Post-Dispatch
Michael Dueker, a former St. Louis Fed economist now with Russell Investments, has a piece on Econbrowser about his recession-forecasting model. It’s a bit technical for the lay reader, but the bottom line isn’t hard to understand. Dueker writes that ”the model is calling a two-quarter recession for the first half of 2008.” He elaborates:
The chart shows that the business cycle index has never dipped as close to zero as it is projected to do in 2008 without a recession. For this reason, it appears unlikely that the economy will escape the current slowdown without a recession.
Dueker’s former boss, St. Louis Fed President Bill Poole, begs to differ. He told reporters yesterday that “the best bet is that we will not have a recession.”
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David Nicklaus has covered St. Louis business for more than 25 years. His column appears three days a week on the Post-Dispatch business page. 
What a total surprise! Now, David, how about an article or post about the Bureau of Labor Statistics recent report on stagnating wages and benefits for workers since CheneyBush took over in 2000? It is interesting how you cherry-pick their statistics to make a hard right wing point about workers in the public sector while conveniently omitting the same reports on the indisputed decline in the living standard of average working folks over the past seven-plus years! (My post on your “Underpaid public servant” piece from a few days ago elaborates this further.) You are truly in the hip pocket of super-rich Republican financier and Show-Me Institute founder, Sinquefield. Wake up, David and Wake up, America!