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04.08.2008 12:00 pm

Our R-Word Index soars

St. Louis Post-Dispatch

After writing about some economists who still don’t think we’re in a recession, I thought it would be interesting to revisit the Post-Dispatch R-Word Index. As regular readers will recall, the Economist magazine found a correlation between actual recessions and mentions of the word “recession,” so I set out to build a local R-Word index.  When I blogged about this in January, the index had risen but not to an alarming level.

Well, we’re sounding the alarm now. In the first 98 days of 2008, the Post-Dispatch has used the R-word in 896 stories. That’s not too far below the 1,015 mentions in all of 2001, which was a recession year. And if we keep using the word at the same rate all year, the 2008 total will be more than 3,200 stories, which will be a record.

The P-D’s electronic archives go back to 1981. Since then, the recession year of 1991 was the only time we even topped 2,000 mentions of the R-word.

What do you think, readers? Are we providing you the data and analysis you need to cope with a fast-changing economy? Or are we being unnecessarily alarmist?

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4 comments

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Seems to me you guys like to bandy that term about without actually explaining to readers what it means. Your big feature last week on what exactly it means to be in the “roller coaster” that is the recession was wholly disappointing—it never actually gave anything other than a completely dumbed down version of what a recession means and how it’s determined, preferring instead to focus on what it physically/existentially feels like to be on a roller coaster. Bravo…

— M.J.
4:44 pm April 8th, 2008

The index might be more informative if it was presented as the percentage of all stories that contained the R-word. Surely the P-D prints more stories annually in 2008 than it did in the 1980s, by virtue of modern electronic media.

— Kevin
10:17 pm April 8th, 2008

Kevin’s point is a good one, statistically speaking, but it’s way too much work for a lighthearted exercise like this one. Anyway, I suspect that a careful analysis would make this year’s surge look even more significant. The archive only contains stories that are in the printed newspaper, and I would guess that the story count has dropped since the 1990s. As an indication, here’s how many stories the archive contains for the first Wednesday of April in three different years: 198 in 1982, 198 in 1991 and 119 in 2008. (Note that the same story gets counted more than once if different editions of the paper contain slightly different versions.)

— David Nicklaus
11:44 am April 9th, 2008

It would be a lot more useful to people as individuals and to the community as a whole if you explained (as Robert J. Samuelson recently did in Newsweek and the Washington Post) that “recessions” are inevitible, and that it is much better to have occasional small recessions than to fight them with excessive monetary stimulation, thereby allowing inflationary pressures to accumulate that eventually can be corrected only by a major recession.

It is also worth pointing out that the best way for individual workers (meaning everyone from executives on down) to deal with recessions is to lower the price of their services and products to avoid pricing themselves out of the market in the face of reduced demand. Of course, people with the mindset that they have some sort of “right” to ever-increasing pay don’t like to hear this, but the operative reality is that one person’s higher pay is another person’s higher cost.

— Ted44
2:10 pm April 9th, 2008