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05.12.2008 10:19 am

A 1-cent down payment on a $50 billion problem

St. Louis Post-Dispatch

If you’re mailing a letter today, don’t forget to add the extra one-cent stamp to meet the new postage rate of 42 cents. You might also take a moment to ponder the future of the U.S. Postal Service. According to Charles Guy, a former USPS economist who emailed a commentary to me and to other media outlets, the future holds rising pension costs, more rate increases and a rather bleak prospect for fiscal stability.

Congress has essentially limited first-class rate increases to the rate of inflation, but Guy says it has to come up with $50 billion to fund pensions over the next decade. He adds:

That leaves it only two ways to cover costs: lowering the amount spent on labor or introducing new products that will increase revenue. The Postal Service’s track record with new products has not been a good one.  There’s no getting around it — the Postal Service has to find ways to reduce its labor costs substantially.

Guy is writing for the Lexington Institute these days. Another Lexington researcher, Robert Schrum, has been posting regular (and usually downbeat) assessments of postal finances.

There is a way out, as I’ve written before, and that’s to privatize the Postal Service. It’s worked in Japan and Germany, among other places.

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11 comments

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Pensions, are outdated, and should be settled for all gov’t workers entitled.

Is this another AMTRAK? Where we subsidize failing systems?

— Fred Airing
2:03 pm May 12th, 2008

I commented on this article by Mr Guy on another forum. It seems to me that the Lexington Institute at large has been tolling the death knell of the USPS for as long as I have been working here, 24 years. As far as I know, the $50 Billion figure is correct, but it is to PRE Fund Retiree Health Care, not Pensions. In the past, USPS had been overpaying into the Civil Service Retirement System and was finally relieved of that burden a couple of years ago as it was pretty much determined that USPS had already fully funded that program. Then it was the infamous Congressionally mandated Escrow Requirement that merely shifted from the CSRS to this fund, money to be paid by USPS to the tune over over $3 Billion. USPS got that money back at the end of 2006, but then was required to pay to pre fund the health benefits for retirees. It may well be 50 Billion, but over how long a period of time, and there was already a $3 Billion downpayment made to that fund.

Speaking if Privatizing the USPS usually makes good media fodder, but you really need to think that through. Especially if you want to compare the USPS to Germany oe Japan. First, there is simple geography. Japan is barely larger than any, other than the New England states, adn Germany is also not much larger than Alaska. Rates to mail a letter in those two countries is nearly twice what Americans pay. In Norway, it is the equivalent of more than $1 to send a simple letter.

On top of that, does anyone really think that a private company is going to transport a letter from Florida to Alaska, or Maine to Guam for only 41¢? SUre, in the cities, private companies cna probably deliver a letter for 25¢. But what about rural areas or long distances. It is not beyond the imagination to think that any letter leaving the 48 mainland states could cost $2 or $3.

Brings to mind the old saying, “Be careful what you wish for becuase you just might get it.” Under the current Federal Employees Retirement System, we do not get the same type of pension as CSRS. Our retirement benefit is as much dependent on the Social Security System and a Thrift Savings Plan that we must contribute to, similar to a 401k in private industry.

I am just thankful that I will be able to retire from the USPS before someone gets the bright idea to chop it up and sell it off. I would be moderately concerned if I were just starting a career today.

— Randy F
4:26 pm May 12th, 2008

I can’t top what Randy already said. The PO is a big target that everyone likes to take a shot at. Your article mentioned 2 countries where privatization worked, but what about Canada and some of the other that have not done so well. You are good at supporting your article, but if the Lexington institute is a “think tank” then why not provide the reader with all the information they need to make a reasonable assumption. The problem with the PO is not labor, it is management. Just like Harley Davidson, was being run into the ground, until the employees took it over and turned it around. The PO is top heavy, and the PMG just got a 39% pay raise, how does that fit into your data. We are a “service” organization. We don’t produce anything that can be sold as retail. So naturally a larger portion of our income goes to labor. Check your local school corporation, I bet they spend as much on their “labor” cost as the PO does. They too are being killed by fuel cost as well. Thank you,

— Greg
7:46 pm May 12th, 2008

Typical stuff (cleaned up) from a “Republican” wishful think tank…Want it to be chopped up so they can “Halaburton” it to the public and REALLY rake us over…..Wait—The Postmaster General already has one on board….MY BAD!!!!

— nvmarv
10:24 pm May 12th, 2008

Long live Fed Ex!

— Screwed
11:44 am May 13th, 2008

Please don’t let anyone you care about even a little bit work for the USPS!
Don’t do it!

— Screwed
11:46 am May 13th, 2008

I’m all for early outs if they want to save money but I still think the best way to save is cut out Saturday delivery and chop away at in station managers and postmasters. Too much lard.

— Postal Worker
4:02 pm May 13th, 2008

Without getting into the very complex issue of the economics of the Postal Service, I’ll mention this one issue from my perspective of (a) having a degree in economics and (b) having once collected U.S. stamps (not with the foolish expectation of expecting them to gain in value more than other “collectibles”).

Given the fact that most stamps sold to collectors are never used for postage, these sales are almost pure profit for the Postal Service — the price of the stamp minus the cost of printing it, which is trivial.

So, normal good business sense would suggest that post offices would display the stamps on hand to inform collectors of their availability and thereby encourage sales, just as any store displays ALL of the goods that it is selling. (All that would be necessary would be to have a glass-enclosed case displaying ONE of each stamp available.) But no. Go to practically any post office and the most that you will see on display is a generic poster showing the “commemorative” stamps (as distinct from many other issues of stamps) that are to be issued over the current year. Then, go to the sales counter and inquire about the stamps that are available, and most clerks will become impatient that you are being so particular about the stamps that you might purchase. (Other postal customers waiting in line behind you will also become impatient, with good reason.)

One post office that has made a partially business-like effort to cater to stamp collectors is in Clayton. There is a separate sales room there that actually displays the stamps that are available. But the last time that I was there, this room was closed for an hour at lunch time.

I can’t imagine any business other than a monopoly succeeding while providing such abominably poor service to the segment of its market that is the most profitable.

Incidentally, collecting older issues of U.S. postage stamps considerably expanded my knowledge of American history. But most of the stamps now issued by the Postal Service are pure eyewash typical of small countries like San Marino and the Falkland Islands that rely upon international sales of copious issues of their stamps for a large part of their national income (they sell them to foreign stamp collectors). It has become a real ripoff practiced by many nations. Maybe U.S. post offices are actually doing Americans a favor by NOT displaying the stamps they have for sale.

— Ted44
8:53 pm May 13th, 2008

USPS should ask OPM to grant a buyout and all of the eligible CSRS employees will be out of there in a flash. Privatize and pay less. That’s where they’re headed anyway. Why not get rid of the old heads?

— Jane
11:01 pm May 13th, 2008

In the long run, the USPS is doomed. As more people use e-mail, and pay their bills online, first class volume must go down. The USPS will be left with delivering magazines and junk mail. And eventually, even the magazines will be electronically delivered. All that leaves is grocery store advertisements and credit card offers. Good luck balancing the budget on that.

— Nick Kasoff
12:20 pm May 14th, 2008

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