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05.14.2008 3:18 pm

A-B options price spikes again

St. Louis Post-Dispatch

The options market’s speculation about an Anheuser-Busch takeover, the subject of one of my columns last week, has heated up again. The price of a June 55 call option jumped 25 cents yesterday to $1.20, before falling to $1.09 today. (Such an option allows the holder to buy A-B shares at $55 apiece, more than $4 above the current price, until June 20. The options’ intrinsic value soars if the stock moves above $55.)

Volume was heavy both days and, according to this Bloomberg story, the options’ implied volatility is at its highest level since 2002. Here’s a Bloomberg quote from Michael McCarty, a New York options strategist:

This is the kind of implied volatility move you’d expect before an event. The company has quashed takeover rumors and there’s every reason not to believe any sort of takeover is in the works, but the options are acting like someone believes it.

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maybe this has something to do with the ending of the Grolsch import contract. A merger with InBev would be a good reason for AB to cut its contract with an InBev competitor.

— JMedwick
4:09 pm May 14th, 2008