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05.23.2008 5:34 pm

The scary number: $1.4 billion in A-B cost cuts

St. Louis Post-Dispatch
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The St. Louis business community has been abuzz today about the $65-a-share offer that Inbev is rumored to be preparing for Anheuser-Busch. Much of the attention has focused on that headline number — $65 a share equals $46 billion for all of A-B, which may prove extremely tempting to shareholders.

In St. Louis, though, another number in the original FT Alphaville report should give folks pause: InBev reportedly thinks it can cut costs at A-B by $1.4 billion a year.

Mark Swartzberg, a Stifel Nicolaus analyst, crunched the numbers too, and he agrees that $1.4 billion in cuts would be necessary to make the deal pay off. That’s a huge number, equal to about 35 percent of A-B’s earnings before interest and taxes, he notes in a research note published today. But it’s probably considered achievable by InBev’s bottom-line-focused executives, Swartzberg says:

We believe execution risk achieving such a number is high, but $1.4 bn is approximately $10.70 per wholly-owned AB barrel and would lift AB’s OI (operating income) per barrel to approximately $34 per barrel. That’s an amount in line with InBev’s OI per barrel, which is in the $30s.

Sounds to me like a cost savings of that magnitude would be extremely bad news for the 6,000 or so A-B employees in St. Louis.

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28 comments

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OMG,

The biggest deal is all the community involvement in and around St. Louis.

I can’t believe no one is raising that big of a stink about this!!!!

I’ve only seen two stories. Is AB not the largest company in STL? I know its our biggest pride, especially when it comes to baseball, but no one is talking!!!???

More thoughts please!!!

— spanky
6:09 pm May 23rd, 2008

Like most St. Louisans, I know many people who work for the brewery. Having said that, even employees know about the waste and layers of executive fat that exist. In terms of an old boy’s network, A-B ranks up there with the NFL. InBev will most certainly be able quickly cut $1.4B in cost and still be productive and more efficient. All the soccer buddy execs are about to get cut loose, receive nice parachutes and the company will be better off. Those employees who actually produce something will still be needed and InBev knows that. The good ol boys in the executive suite have not performed or produced anything for years. Please don’t be afraid of improving the performance of our brewery. Let the cronies ride off into the sunset, you never needed them anyway.

— JE
10:41 am May 24th, 2008

The Union will be the first to go.
Benefits will be reduced or eliminated.
Wages will not increase.
Pensions will be frozen and privatized.
The number of production jobs will be reduced.
InBev will milk Missouri tax credits.
InBev will milk the City of St. Louis tax abatement programs.
InBev will import more of its cheaper beer brands to the U.S.
market and export some of A-Bs brands.
Expect the worst.
The stockholders will be bought out at the expense of the workers.

— Al Katzenberger
3:21 pm May 24th, 2008

Well the rumor sounds about right. I worked as a IT consultant at AG Edwards for 5 years and watched a company slowly but surely be fatted up for the slaughter by Bob Bagby and his henchmen. I also worked at Anheuser-Busch for 10 1/2 year as an IT consultant and saw AB IV on a fast track to the top of the food chain. His father ran a very, VERY tight ship and did not play around. It was almost to the point of being ruthless in his pursuit of profits. Business units were sold now and then BUT the Mr. Busch did not screw the employee’s just expected a very high standard of output from everyone. Ben Edwards was one of the nicest men CEO’s I’d ever worked for (only met him once). BUT, it was very apparent his love for AGE, it’s heritage and the employee’s was genuine.

Fast forward to the Bagby, Bush IV era’s and you see ruthless quests for power and money. The devastation Bagby and his henchmen unleashed on the loyal employee’s of AG Edwards cannot and will never be forgotten. The same will hold true when the IV takes the money and runs. A 1.4 billion dollar increase in operating income will be derived by unloading the Accounting, IT and other cost centers at One Busch place. A brewery or two may also be in jeopardy. Implementing industry standard tools like SAP make integrating systems nearly a snap. I learned this routine over 23 years ago when IBM sold the division I worked for as and employee of IBM from under us. Not because it made any sense rather, because it made the stock holders a few more pieces of silver. I vowed then to NEVER be an employee of any one but myself.

We can paritally thank the misguided that sent G.W. Bush to 1600 Pennsylvania Ave in 2000. Compassionate conservatism has turned out to benefit only the haves and the have mores just like the President planned! The weak dollar is killing industry here. This idiotic of cut and spend economic policy is killing our nation. What ever happened to REAL conservatives? They died off and their Valium medicated children took over. These zombies won’t stop until the middle class no longer exists.

— slippery slipster
8:19 pm May 24th, 2008

This is just the beginning of the “sell off” of the USA. You are just complaining because it is just now hitting home; AAs purchase of TWA should have been the first ringing alarm.

As long as our dollar value is substandard in comparison other countries, and our businesses keep cash on hand instead of leveraging themselves we continue to be sold off at a “discount”.

US consumers are soon to be employees of other countries growth strategies. I voted for GWB twice and I am ashamed of the outcome.

— PeteS
12:13 pm May 25th, 2008

PeterS, interesting comment about leverage. However, in the end, the US economy is moving away from manufacturing. So while the $ is weak, we will continue to see this trend until union’s realize that they are digging their own graves with their demands.

While I respect the institution, the leaders need to do the members a service by recognizing the issue and start thinking about the bottom line in context with the rest of the world.

— kevin r
6:47 pm May 25th, 2008

While the $/EU certainly favors this acquisition, it also may reduce the cost cutting implemented locally. Why wouldn’t I cut my high cost European accountants instead of my lesser paid American (St. Louis) ones? The $ valuation can cut both ways.

— southsider
9:22 am May 26th, 2008

Speaking as a stockholder (and a small potatoes one at that) I am concerned . While the one shot bump into my rollover would be nice, I am uncomfortable with a company who’s main strategy seems to be growth by acquisition. That business practice has led more all too often to a bad end (insert your own example here). Yes A4 has made some missteps but I believe the company to still be sound and he will be able get back on track. It is still the largest brewer in the world and got that way by paying attention to it’s products. The product is what will make your numbers.

— Exile Mike
6:40 am May 27th, 2008

I work for A/B (blue collar), I believe InBev will have it’s work cut out for it, in making this acquisition. First off they have to convince THEIR shareholders, that the deal would be in their best interest, the 3% drop in Inbev stock after news broke Friday indicates this could be a tough sell. Secondly A/B has a few options itself, one of which is to purchase the remaining 50% of Mexican brewer Modello ( Carona) , making itself too expensive for InBev to pursue. I wouldn’t underestimate the people at 1 Busch Place, they will not roll over at make this easy .

— RR53
7:59 am May 27th, 2008

We can only hope that the Busch’s have more money than they could ever spend and hope that they do what is necessary to keep InBev from taking them over. If this requires buying the rest of the Mexican brewery buy it now!!
I hope the Busch’s have enough pride and community spirit in their hometown to prevent this takeover from happening.
St. Louis has taken many corporate hits and we do seem to keep puttering along but if this happens it could very well be the end and the streets and sidewalks might as well be rolled up.
Please Busch family DO NOT let this happen! your hometown is depending on it.

— Ken
8:29 am May 27th, 2008

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