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05.23.2008 5:34 pm

The scary number: $1.4 billion in A-B cost cuts

St. Louis Post-Dispatch
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The St. Louis business community has been abuzz today about the $65-a-share offer that Inbev is rumored to be preparing for Anheuser-Busch. Much of the attention has focused on that headline number — $65 a share equals $46 billion for all of A-B, which may prove extremely tempting to shareholders.

In St. Louis, though, another number in the original FT Alphaville report should give folks pause: InBev reportedly thinks it can cut costs at A-B by $1.4 billion a year.

Mark Swartzberg, a Stifel Nicolaus analyst, crunched the numbers too, and he agrees that $1.4 billion in cuts would be necessary to make the deal pay off. That’s a huge number, equal to about 35 percent of A-B’s earnings before interest and taxes, he notes in a research note published today. But it’s probably considered achievable by InBev’s bottom-line-focused executives, Swartzberg says:

We believe execution risk achieving such a number is high, but $1.4 bn is approximately $10.70 per wholly-owned AB barrel and would lift AB’s OI (operating income) per barrel to approximately $34 per barrel. That’s an amount in line with InBev’s OI per barrel, which is in the $30s.

Sounds to me like a cost savings of that magnitude would be extremely bad news for the 6,000 or so A-B employees in St. Louis.

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28 comments

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OMG,

The biggest deal is all the community involvement in and around St. Louis.

I can’t believe no one is raising that big of a stink about this!!!!

I’ve only seen two stories. Is AB not the largest company in STL? I know its our biggest pride, especially when it comes to baseball, but no one is talking!!!???

More thoughts please!!!

— spanky
6:09 pm May 23rd, 2008

Like most St. Louisans, I know many people who work for the brewery. Having said that, even employees know about the waste and layers of executive fat that exist. In terms of an old boy’s network, A-B ranks up there with the NFL. InBev will most certainly be able quickly cut $1.4B in cost and still be productive and more efficient. All the soccer buddy execs are about to get cut loose, receive nice parachutes and the company will be better off. Those employees who actually produce something will still be needed and InBev knows that. The good ol boys in the executive suite have not performed or produced anything for years. Please don’t be afraid of improving the performance of our brewery. Let the cronies ride off into the sunset, you never needed them anyway.

— JE
10:41 am May 24th, 2008

The Union will be the first to go.
Benefits will be reduced or eliminated.
Wages will not increase.
Pensions will be frozen and privatized.
The number of production jobs will be reduced.
InBev will milk Missouri tax credits.
InBev will milk the City of St. Louis tax abatement programs.
InBev will import more of its cheaper beer brands to the U.S.
market and export some of A-Bs brands.
Expect the worst.
The stockholders will be bought out at the expense of the workers.

— Al Katzenberger
3:21 pm May 24th, 2008

Well the rumor sounds about right. I worked as a IT consultant at AG Edwards for 5 years and watched a company slowly but surely be fatted up for the slaughter by Bob Bagby and his henchmen. I also worked at Anheuser-Busch for 10 1/2 year as an IT consultant and saw AB IV on a fast track to the top of the food chain. His father ran a very, VERY tight ship and did not play around. It was almost to the point of being ruthless in his pursuit of profits. Business units were sold now and then BUT the Mr. Busch did not screw the employee’s just expected a very high standard of output from everyone. Ben Edwards was one of the nicest men CEO’s I’d ever worked for (only met him once). BUT, it was very apparent his love for AGE, it’s heritage and the employee’s was genuine.

Fast forward to the Bagby, Bush IV era’s and you see ruthless quests for power and money. The devastation Bagby and his henchmen unleashed on the loyal employee’s of AG Edwards cannot and will never be forgotten. The same will hold true when the IV takes the money and runs. A 1.4 billion dollar increase in operating income will be derived by unloading the Accounting, IT and other cost centers at One Busch place. A brewery or two may also be in jeopardy. Implementing industry standard tools like SAP make integrating systems nearly a snap. I learned this routine over 23 years ago when IBM sold the division I worked for as and employee of IBM from under us. Not because it made any sense rather, because it made the stock holders a few more pieces of silver. I vowed then to NEVER be an employee of any one but myself.

We can paritally thank the misguided that sent G.W. Bush to 1600 Pennsylvania Ave in 2000. Compassionate conservatism has turned out to benefit only the haves and the have mores just like the President planned! The weak dollar is killing industry here. This idiotic of cut and spend economic policy is killing our nation. What ever happened to REAL conservatives? They died off and their Valium medicated children took over. These zombies won’t stop until the middle class no longer exists.

— slippery slipster
8:19 pm May 24th, 2008

This is just the beginning of the “sell off” of the USA. You are just complaining because it is just now hitting home; AAs purchase of TWA should have been the first ringing alarm.

As long as our dollar value is substandard in comparison other countries, and our businesses keep cash on hand instead of leveraging themselves we continue to be sold off at a “discount”.

US consumers are soon to be employees of other countries growth strategies. I voted for GWB twice and I am ashamed of the outcome.

— PeteS
12:13 pm May 25th, 2008

PeterS, interesting comment about leverage. However, in the end, the US economy is moving away from manufacturing. So while the $ is weak, we will continue to see this trend until union’s realize that they are digging their own graves with their demands.

While I respect the institution, the leaders need to do the members a service by recognizing the issue and start thinking about the bottom line in context with the rest of the world.

— kevin r
6:47 pm May 25th, 2008

While the $/EU certainly favors this acquisition, it also may reduce the cost cutting implemented locally. Why wouldn’t I cut my high cost European accountants instead of my lesser paid American (St. Louis) ones? The $ valuation can cut both ways.

— southsider
9:22 am May 26th, 2008

Speaking as a stockholder (and a small potatoes one at that) I am concerned . While the one shot bump into my rollover would be nice, I am uncomfortable with a company who’s main strategy seems to be growth by acquisition. That business practice has led more all too often to a bad end (insert your own example here). Yes A4 has made some missteps but I believe the company to still be sound and he will be able get back on track. It is still the largest brewer in the world and got that way by paying attention to it’s products. The product is what will make your numbers.

— Exile Mike
6:40 am May 27th, 2008

I work for A/B (blue collar), I believe InBev will have it’s work cut out for it, in making this acquisition. First off they have to convince THEIR shareholders, that the deal would be in their best interest, the 3% drop in Inbev stock after news broke Friday indicates this could be a tough sell. Secondly A/B has a few options itself, one of which is to purchase the remaining 50% of Mexican brewer Modello ( Carona) , making itself too expensive for InBev to pursue. I wouldn’t underestimate the people at 1 Busch Place, they will not roll over at make this easy .

— RR53
7:59 am May 27th, 2008

We can only hope that the Busch’s have more money than they could ever spend and hope that they do what is necessary to keep InBev from taking them over. If this requires buying the rest of the Mexican brewery buy it now!!
I hope the Busch’s have enough pride and community spirit in their hometown to prevent this takeover from happening.
St. Louis has taken many corporate hits and we do seem to keep puttering along but if this happens it could very well be the end and the streets and sidewalks might as well be rolled up.
Please Busch family DO NOT let this happen! your hometown is depending on it.

— Ken
8:29 am May 27th, 2008

INBEV will have to try to do this deal as a hostile takeover at the $65 price. It has a current value of $65 per share based on forecasted earnings per share, forecasted earnings growth, profitability, interest and inflation rates. There is a premium for this stock on top of the $65 per share based on brand value, distribution system, trademarks and cost cutting opportunities. In my view, the brand value alone should be worth another 30% minimum in share price as this is the biggest “asset” any brewer has. The distribution system should also drive a premium of 20 - 25%. This pushes the share value closer to $100 - $110 per share. Shareholders would be unwise to even think about the current offer.

— Chris Corrie
10:11 am May 27th, 2008

A-B, just like many former StL companies was so focused on the status quo, i.e., ignored international expansion for many years and the world passed them by. (That’s why they are not the largest brewers in the world.) The Busch family only owns 4% of the shares, so they aren’t going to “rescue” the company for St. Louis. The world won’t end, the beer will still be made.

— DenverDean
1:16 pm May 27th, 2008

Dean, AB is the largest brewer in the world, InBev is #3. Look up the numbers (at least the ones InBev chooses to make public). AB has a better ROI and gross profit. IMHO any stockholder thinking it would be a good move to own shares of a company so whose operations are so opaque is planning on selling anyway.

— Exile Mike
1:40 pm May 27th, 2008

that would be catastrophic for St.Louis , this is not a major city nor a atriuary city but smaller, regardless of what u think this is the fact of life, lose this to a non american co. would all but kill St.louis, we would be ….. well ghost town like Lubick Tx. or the such, sure we have others but there are over 25,000 jobs that would be lost in the A-B and it vendors of such + the people that have jobs that cater to these people ( total 25k job lost in St.Louis.)

If you have stock Vote no, or be prepared for the worst case that St.louis has ever in its history faced.

— only me
4:14 pm May 29th, 2008

As soon as we heard the news of this possible merger/buyout, our hearts sank. My husband and I are not from St Louis, don’t have family who work for A-B but strongly believe in keeping this company american owned and operated. For several years now, we have been an Anheuser-Busch only household, not for the beer but for the company and what they stand for. There are so many good things that they do for our economy, our military, our environment and our pride it would be hard to fathom this company being Belgium owned.

Go to http://www.savebudweiser.com and sign the petition to keep Anheuser-Busch here!

— AmericanGirl
8:31 pm May 31st, 2008

let’s not forget about the thousands of people that work indirectly for AB. The ad agencies, printers, etc.

— LB
2:30 am June 1st, 2008

The cost cutting has already begun at AB. No matter what happens with this buy-out thing, AB will, and is, instituting the cost cutting programs rumored. Look for layoffs this summer in staggering numbers. If you are an AB person who has a job that does not relate directly to selling or making beer, get a new job NOW!

— Greg
5:08 pm June 2nd, 2008

I certainly hope this takeover does not take place. It would be terrible for this area. I have long admired the good things that AB has done for this area…. Grants Farm in particular.

When this takeover happens it will be years of bad decisions (like only owning 4% of the company) that led to their demise.

— Mike
3:58 pm June 3rd, 2008

This is unreal. At what point is someone in the “right position” going to put their foot down for the United States and keeping our f’ing jobs? It is unbelievable the many changes that are happening in “our world” and all it seems that the government cares about are the “other worlds”. I don’t have a problem with us helping other countries but we should just step in, make our difference and get out!! We need to keep our jobs or we won’t have any ownership over here which is scarey!!!!!!!!

God bless and good luck to the AB family!!

— Cynthia
7:42 am June 5th, 2008

I am a new employee to Anheuser-Busch, and completely new to St Louis, MO. I have a young family, loving wife, and three amazing young children. I received an offer from A-B just 3 months ago to become a member of their family and help run systems in their I.T. Department. We were in no way interested in moving away from all of our family and friends back in Tulsa, OK. But after allot of research in A-B, we fell in love with what the company stands for.

One of the last large businesses that do anything they can to support what our nation used to live by. People came in the thousands to the US for not just more work, but a better life for their family. A stronger community to raise their children in. The idea that there was somewhere better out there that would make them proud of who they are, and what they are a part of.

Anheuser-Busch started their company with all of these ethics back in the 1800’s, and I can tell you after becoming a part of the family here, it is still very much alive. I have never seen such a large body of people that are genuinely happy with were they work, management that is more focused on your quality of life than your performance.

A-B is constantly promoting local and national charities. They rose over $103,000 last year locally to support the cure against breast cancer. They spent millions during the Super Bowl after the attack on the twin towers, simply to run a commercial that gave respects to those that were lost.

You can feel this since of pride resonating throughout the entire city of St Louis. The kind of pride that encourages people to risk their life fighting to protect. The kind of pride that makes men want to become better fathers and husbands. This pride helps us become the leaders that other feel compelled to follow.

This is what Anheuser-Busch stands for, and it is all in jeopardy. August Busch IV stands against this merger, because he realizes it will rip out the heart of their families company. Unfortunately, there are other controlling interests that are led by money and not the since of pride that built this business. If this company falls, and many loose their jobs to cut backs and financial restructuring, it will be these people that walk away with full pockets.

Just like so many times in the past, our family’s futures lie in the hands of those who do not care for our well being, but their own. I pray that I’m not just another statistic in this merger that looses his job due to cutbacks. Only 3 months in, I fear that I may be left with nothing if this merger takes place and everyone starts getting laid off to cut costs.

I hope this in some way helps everyone see that there is much more at stake than money, when a business is sold and cut up to make a profit. I wish my best to all those out there working to build good lives for their families as well. God Bless.

Jonathan J. Sanders
Anheuser-Busch

— Jonathan S., A-B Employee (Contractor)
9:03 am June 5th, 2008

In response to “JE”’s comment about layers of excess management being cut….You have obviously never been through an acquisition yourself. If you had, you’d know that executives are not the only ones to go. This acquisition will impact all layers of employees at AB, from accounting to sales to IT. Thousands of hardworking people are going to lose their jobs and their livelihoods over this. You say this will “improve the performance of our brewery”. Not sure how you mean, exactly. Perhaps you haven’t considered all the implications of this, such as the millions AB donates to local charities and organizations, the tax revenue AB provides for this city, or the thousands of people whose livelihoods depend on the company’s independent survival. Please, do your homework. I wonder how you’d feel if you stood to lose your job, or if you could glimpse into the potential future of St. Louis should AB go…

— lo
2:44 pm June 5th, 2008

As a native St. Louisian, I am proud of the fact that St. Louis is the home of Anheuser-Busch; however, you cannot change the fact that this transaction makes economic sense. Considering the fact that AB has had significant problems growing in any market outside of the US (especially Europe) and InBev’s only significant market without a presence is the US, a merger of these too companies will provide excellent synergies.

If you are an investor making this decision, seeing limited realistic growth opportunities for AB, what would you do? Also considering that 67% of AB stock is held with institutional investors and mutual funds and that they are under significant pressure to produce earning in a slowing economy, it is hard for me to believe this deal would not be approved.

So what is InBev looking to get out of this acquisition? They are only interested in AB’s brands and distribution network, therefore, all of the corporate functions and manufacturing plants will be at risk for restructuring. Considering InBev’s previous experience, the AB presents (corporate and manufacturing) in St. Louis will be a shell of it’s former self.

What does this mean for St. Louis? This will add to the trend of high paying corporate jobs leaving the city. Any current recession in St. Louis will be extended with the loss of some many high paying jobs, and the future of the city will be significantly comprised. The city is slowly dieing and none of the politicians in St. Louis or the state has provided a solution to reverse this trend.

It’s only doom and gloom for St. Louis and that’s why I have moved from the city.

— Ex St. Louisian
1:15 pm June 8th, 2008

If I were a Budweiser employee I would be worried.They may not close
plants or lay anyone off [not at first] but their cost cutting would
mean lower wages or bringing in cheap labor from Brazil. Fight them
if you can.

— Frank
2:48 pm June 12th, 2008

i can’t see the problem with Budweiser falling into foreign hands. every time i see someone drinking a bud it’s in foreign hands, anyway.

— bud wiser
4:03 pm June 12th, 2008

Guys
Don’t worry. As a brazilian guy, I’ve seen lots of our companies being acquired by american ones. Ok, some jobs will be lost, but only your pride will really suffer. Welcome to the world! I didn’t hear anything from you when the move was in the opposite direction. Now that the game has changed, it may be time to drink your own poison. And I can tell you: it does not taste as good as Bud!

— Marcio
5:34 pm June 14th, 2008

This deal would not only affect St Louis, but would eventually hurt every town/city/state in the country which houses a distribution or theme park currently run by A/B. It’s not all about whether or not the beer will still be made (re: DEAN’s comment) That is a given considering the company is a beverage company. The more important part is the THOUSANDS of AMERICANS the company employs all over the country, ie: Sea World, Busch Gardens, Grants Farm, ect. I have spoken to quite a few people who work for AB and all of them said the Theme parks would be the first to go to cut cost and maximize profit…including the HORSES! (which I personally can’t even imagine a Football season without a new Clydesdale commercial) This to me is devastating, and I will never knowingly consume an A/B product again if this deal goes thru

— tx Kate
11:27 pm June 15th, 2008

I worked for AB and hated it. WHY? Because im not a redneck. I dont enjoy getting loaded on lunch. AB has become fat in many ways. Ive never seen so many people making so much money for doing so little.. But I guess thats the “American Way”.

— AD
12:28 am June 17th, 2008

What does that mean for employees who have been there for more than 30 + years?

— Cari
4:47 pm June 20th, 2008