Is $3.90 a magic number for A-B?
I said this morning that Anheuser-Busch would need more than a just-say-no defense to retain shareholders’ loyalties, and today’s conference call with analysts did contain some promising pieces of news. (Check out our Business News blog for my colleague Tim Logan’s live account of the call.
CEO August Busch IV and chief financial officer Randy Baker told analysts they have accelerated cost-cutting efforts, expecting to save $1 billion by 2010, and they’re also stepping up share-buyback plans, advertising spending and beer-price increases.
The bottom line is this: The executives told analysts they can boost earnings per share to $3.14 this year and $3.90 in 2009, and keep them growing at a double-digit pace after that. According to Bloomberg, current analyst estimates averaged $3.02 for this year and $3.30 for next.
At least one analyst congratulated Busch and Baker on the accelerated earnings trajectory. Another asked a pointed question: If InBev hadn’t launched its takeover effort, when would shareholders have learned about all these great things going on?
Busch said executives began boosting their cost-cutting targets last fall, when Miller and Coors announced their U.S. joint venture. He added:
Obviously with the InBev rumors floating around we had to accelerate our timing and our actions. We are absolutely confident that we can execute better than anyone else.
The big question now is this: Would shareholders rather own a company that can earn $3.90 a share in 2009, and keep earnings growing at a healthy pace, or would they rather have $65 a share in cash? Here’s one way to look at that choice: The $65 price is 20.7 times the new earnings estimate for this year, and 16.7 times the new 2009 estimate. During the five years between mid-May 2003 and mid-May of this year, according to Bloomberg, the average price-earnings ratio for A-B’s shares was 19.
So, A-B’s management does have a case to make that its shares are undervalued. But InBev seems very determined to push its $65-a-share offer. I would look for the Belgian company to make its next move within a couple of days.



David Nicklaus has covered St. Louis business for more than 25 years. His column appears three days a week on the Post-Dispatch business page.
Sigh, Yeah the money sounds good, but is it really better than 16-20 years of no commissions or fees and dividend income added to that? What’s with the ADD reasoning?