Anheuser-Busch just announced that it has received a takeover offer from InBev, turning weeks of speculation into reality. Here are a couple of quick thoughts:
- The bid is all-cash, which is the hardest kind of offer to turn down.
- It’s $65 a share, which is exactly what had been rumored. But in this kind of courtship, the initial price isn’t necessarily the best and final offer. If InBev is willing to go higher, say to $70, A-B’s board may have a hard time saying “no.”
- A-B’s language seems to be straight down the middle. It says its board will “evaluate the proposal carefully and in the context of all relevant factors, including Anheuser-Busch’s long-term strategic plan.” Mention of the strategic plan is a reminder that there may be an alternative way to create value. But the statement also mentions the board’s “fiduciary duties,” which mean that A-B can’t simply walk away from a deal that’s good for shareholders.
- This is the beginning, not the end. The Microsoft-Yahoo drama took three months to play out — Microsoft launched its bid Feb. 1 and formally abandoned it May 4 — and it may not be over yet. The plot could take many twists and turns from here, so stay tuned.
- While we’re intensely focused on the ramifications for St. Louis — and rightly so — Reuters notes that A-B’s China operations may be strategically important to InBev. Combined, the companies would control 13 percent of the Chinese beer market. A-B also owns 27 percent of Tsingtao, which has an additional 10 percent of the market.
