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07.08.2008 2:37 pm

A-B’s dividend is nice, but it’s not a defense

St. Louis Post-Dispatch
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Ever since the Anheuser-Busch takeover saga started, I’ve been getting questions from A-B shareholders who say we’ve ignored the role of dividends in all of this. The general tone is this: I don’t need to jump at a $65-a-share offer, because I’m happy holding the stock and collecting A-B’s nice dividend. Here’s how a reader named Joshua phrased this sentiment in a voice-mail message:

It seems to me that every reporter is quick to announce the $65 share price. … It doesn’t seem like any reporters are focusing in on the consistent dividend that A-B has been paying its shareholders and the value to a shareholder of a 50-55 dollar piece of stock that’s paying a consistent dividend.  That needs to be part of somebody’s reporting. If I don’t sell for 65 bucks I’ve still got a 50-dollar stock that’s going to pay me a consistent dividend.  If you’re thinking long-term and consistent income, somebody who’s relying on that income would get a one-time shot and then it’s gone, whereas somebody who continues to own the stock would get a consistent dividend. A-B may be stagnant or it may be consistent, with mid-50s pricing and a consistent dividend.

Steve also asked about dividends during last week’s live discussion.

My answer to Steve, Joshua, and all the other dividend-focused investors out there: A-B’s dividend is good, but it can be replaced.

Bloomberg tells me that A-B’s dividend yield amounts to 2.1 percent, and that it has increased the dividend at a compounded annual rate of 11 percent over the past five years.

To answer Joshua’s point about “someone who’s relying on that income”: You can take the $65 a share and put it into a money-market fund. Those yield an average of 2.4 percent today, according to BankRate.com. That’s already higher than A-B’s dividend yield, and if you go with a 5-year CD you can earn nearly 4 percent.

Ah, but the beauty of dividends is that if you pick a good company, they will grow over time. One reader told me that he bought a few shares years ago, and now his annual dividends are greater than his initial investment. You can’t do that with a CD or money-market fund. Still, there’s a handy alternative investment: An S&P 500 index fund.

I looked up dividend statistics for the S&P 500, and they actually compare favorably. The index yields 2.39 percent, and its dividends have grown at a 13 percent annual rate over the past five years.

Bottom line: A-B’s dividend has made it a good buy-and-hold stock over the years. But, by itself, it’s not a reason to reject InBev’s $65-a-share cash offer.

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3 comments

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I think the other key point about the dividend is this–institutional investors aren’t even considering the dividend when they are weighing whether or not to accept the $65 offer. It’s not part of their thought process–there’s too much other yield available in other S&P 500 companies. When AT&T is yielding well over 4%, a 2% dividend is not a takeover defense.

— Paul
5:23 pm July 8th, 2008

When is this guy going to admit he is on InBev’s payroll. I havent read a columnist - a business columnist - who is less in toucch with reality than this guy. He ignores the impact the sale will have on St. Louis saying we will survive. How many more businesses have to leave before he wakes up and realize this isn’t 1904 and we arent hosting Olympics or World Fairs. When ad sales go down - hope he gets the pink slip. Maybe he can go be a columnist for a brussels paper - where he already has a bank account. InBev has closed how many breweries since they bought everything and anything - you really think the clydesdales and all A-B’s breweries are not at risk?

— Jake
10:06 pm July 9th, 2008

Jake, in my opinion David does an excellent job. I try to read economic articles when I can because I want to learn about the topic, and David’s opinions are pretty consistent with what I expect to hear given my limited knowledge base. Add to that the fact that he usually explains it so cretins like you and me can understand it makes me think he is the right guy for the job.

All he is doing in this article is explaining why taking the buyout offer and investing the money elsewhere can very easily make you more money than holding the stock and getting dividends.

A-B has bought and closed many breweries themselves. They are tough with their suppliers and their distributors like any GOOD business often has to be. This reminds me of the days when I worked at Boatmen’s and everyone was crushed when NationsBank bought them out. No one got in a huff when Boatmen’s bought Worthen Bank in Arkansas, or Bank IV in Kansas, or Sun Bank in New Mexico, each of which were gutted, because we had people here in St Louis doing those jobs already.

I appreciate that you are a homer. So am I. I don’t want to see AB get eaten up either. But you have to start understanding economics a little more. And David, by the way, is a good place to start reading to get that understanding…

— Tim
10:50 am July 10th, 2008