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10.17.2008 10:57 am

Could Modelo alter the A-B deal?

St. Louis Post-Dispatch
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In their public statements, Anheuser-Busch and InBev seem to be treating Modelo’s arbitration request as little more than a nuisance. However, a Wall Street Journal article (subscription required) - says one possible solution is for Modelo to buy back A-B’s 50 percent stake in the Mexican company. The Journal reports:

A sale of the Modelo stake would significantly alter the InBev-Anheuser-deal because the U.S. brewer’s interest in Modelo – one of the world’s fastest-growing beer makers — was part of Anheuser’s allure for InBev.

The article adds later:

Modelo’s position may be helped by the turmoil in financial markets. InBev had planned to sell a number of Anheuser’s assets, including its theme parks, to help fund the deal. But it is unlikely to find a buyer for such assets, given the weakened economic environment and the reluctance of banks to offer financing.

It’s still possible that InBev will line up its financing, flick away Modelo’s objections and close its purchase by year’s end, with no substantial changes to the deal that was announced in July. But if financing is a problem, carving out the Modelo stake could be a solution. The next couple of weeks should prove interesting, one way or another.

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One comment

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As much as InBev may want the 50% Modelo interest, selling it back to the Mexicans makes the AB acquisition cheaper. InBev is surely scrambling to put together financing given the failure of their rights offering.
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/35a5b3be-9a52-11dd-bfe2-000077b07658.html

There are also reports that InBev is shopping other assets (see Korea)–
http://www.reuters.com/article/innovationNews/idUSTRE49H13D20081018

If InBev can’t come up with the money and needs to sell the Modelo interest back to the Mexican families that own the rest of the company, good luck closing that deal before year end. These people move at their own pace, in their own time. I think InBev is in serious trouble of failing to close the AB acquisition. With a $1.25 billion breakup fee, the AB shareholders should come out fine in either case.

— jjray
2:49 pm October 19th, 2008