Forecast sees St. Louis home prices dropping, but not much
Housing prices haven’t yet bottomed out nationally, according to a forecast from Fiserv, but they’re close to stabilizing in St. Louis. Nationally, according to a CNNMoney account, the financial data firm expects prices to fall 11.3 percent between mid-2009 and mid-2010. It expects a recovery the following year, with prices rising 3.8 percent by mid-2011. In St. Louis, the forecast calls for a 1.3 percent decline in 2009-2010 and a 0.3 percent decline in 2010-2011.
Next year’s decline will be worst in some of the markets that have already been hit hard. Fiserv says prices will be marked down 29.9 percent in Miami, 27 percent in Orlando and 23.9 percent in Las Vegas.





David Nicklaus has covered St. Louis business for more than 25 years. His column appears three days a week on the Post-Dispatch business page.
Wait six to eight months then buy. Remember, all this is cyclical try to save as much as you can so when it is time to get back into the market you have the money.
LEFTSTL, if you wait 6 to 8 months, you’re buying in the peak buying season. And you said it is cyclical, which I agree with. Why not wait until the following winter to buy? I personally believe that prices will fall far greater than they are expecting in our area. The reason is that you have tighter loan regulations, stagnant to falling incomes, higher unemployment, higher tax rates of every sort, utility costs continue to soar, rents are stable to decreasing, and home insurance rates have soared. House prices are not yet reasonable in my opinion as the cost of renting is still lower than owning when you factor in all expenses. It is the landlord who is getting squeezed with higher costs and steady to lower rents, and includes renters who are sometimes one paycheck away from bankruptcy.
According to the Federal Reserve’s last beige book report, St. Louis was still experiencing a declining economy. We have an unemployment rate of 10%, a housing inventory surplus of 10+ months, and there doesn’t seem to be an influx of new people around. We still have job losses in the area. I suspect that home prices will fall a great deal. My estimation is for more than 10% by June 2010. Buyers need to wait it out to get decent home prices. Home prices today are inflated. Try to buy at 1999 prices, which preceded the boom period. If possible, wait to buy a home in early 2011.
When you look at some of these sellers’ asking prices, they want to test the waters. Any buyers out there willing to take my home at $200K? Any takers for $195K? How about $190K? What about $189,999? Let’s try $187K. How about $185K? And they wonder why their home continues to sit on the market 10+ months. The seller’s home is not unique, special, nor important because there are hundreds of other homes out there. Buyers can be picky and choosy. When in doubt, move on to the next 50 homes to consider. Buyers do expect closing costs to be covered as a concession. This is a buyer’s market where the buyer has the upper hand. Winds of change at last!
I disagree, the time to buy is now or during this winter. The market isn’t going to go any lower, you can get some tax breaks and interest rates are rock bottom. If you wait, you run the risk of having a higher interest rate and if there is even a glimmer of higher prices on the horizon, sellers won’t give in to buyer demands as much. If you’re in the market for a house, the risks of waiting are higher in my opinion than buying now.
I realize that historically the best time to sell is May-July. That may not be the case any longer. Once we start to see job growth it may be the time to buy a house or investment property. I no longer live in St. Louis but follow the market. There are some very good deals around Washington University and St. Louis University for the investment buyer. The Central West End has some very good prices. I am considering making an offer in April-May.
I just bought a home in South City St. louis, North Hampton Area. In my experience of shopping, sellers won’t come down as much as you think. Yes many deals are to be had, but if you are a buyer who wants to buy in a specific area, you are limited to what that area has to offer. Plus, would you be willing to sell your home at a loss? So, although a slight decline in home prices is likely and possible, nothing drastic is going to happen where people are buying houses consistently less then the price that the previous owner purchased it for. Sellers will just sit in their homes til people give them what they deem a fair offer.
We are not at the bottom…another 12 months. To St Louis County assessor. My taxes better go down!!!!!!!!!
Las Vegas 2 years, FL 3 to 4 years
Those who Speculate stop and learn from recent history.
According to Trulia, there are 1,760 Recently Sold homes in the last 9 months and 2,215 homes are in the foreclosure process in Saint Louis, MO.
Anyone who thinks that their houses aren’t going to lose value in a market where foreclosures exceed total sales is going to be sorely disappointed.
This report is pretty consistent with a recent report issued by Veros Real Estate Solutions which projected St. Loius would see a decline of 1 percent in home values in the next 12 months…relatively speaking that’s not bad and hopefully will pan out to be true…I included info from the report in a post I did at:
http://stlouisrealestatenews.com/real-estate-market/st-louis-housing-prices-projected-to-drop-1-percent-in-next-12-months/
Great article. It seems there are so many differing opinions on when to buy. I just read a great article about why now is the best time to buy at: http://www.fischerandfrichtel.com/blog/index.php/2009/10/fischer-and-frichtel-home-community-blog-why-now-is-the-time-to-buy/. Some great points.