Joel Prakken, chairman of Macroeconomic Advisers in Clayton, wasn’t ready to declare a recession when I talked to him three and a half weeks ago. Today, he is. “The economy, I feel, has slipped into recession,” Prakken said at a breakfast organized by Midwest BankCentre.

He believes the economy peaked in June, fueled in part by economic-stimulus checks from the federal government, and began shrinking the following month. He thinks gross domestic product will be almost flat for the third quarter and will shrink by between 2% and 2.5% in the fourth quarter. In 2009, he sees barely positive growth in the first quarter, maybe 0.25 percent, followed by 2 percent or so in the second quarter and roughly 3 percent in the second half.

That’s basically a garden-variety recession, relatively mild and less than a year long. But, Prakken added, “If that’s all that was on our plate right now I wouldn’t be too worried. It’s not the baseline forecast that’s keeping me up at night, it’s the risks around it. The risks are all to the down side.”

Update: My colleague Tim Logan has more on Prakken’s forecast here.