Economists see recession ending by autumn
The latest survey from the National Association for Business Economics has some good news and some bad news about the macroeconomic outlook. A majority (74 percent) of the 45 participating economists think the recession will end by the third quarter of this year, but they don’t think the recovery will be very strong.
The forecasters see gross domestic product rising at just a 1.2 percent annual rate in the second half of this year, after shrinking in the first half. Predicted GDP growth rises to 2.7 percent in 2010, which is about in line with the long-term trend but is significantly more sluggish than the typical first year of a recovery. In February, the NABE panel was forecasting 3.1 percent growth for 2010.
The economists think unemployment will hit 9.8 percent by the end of this year and then drop to 9.3 percent at the end of 2010.
Chris Varvares, president of Macroeconomic Advisers and of the NABE, summarizes:
While the overall tone remains soft, there are emerging signs that the economy is stabilizing. The survey found that business economists look for the recession to end soon, but that the economic recovery is likely to be considerably more moderate than those typically experienced following steep declines. Moreover, despite encouraging signs seen in the last several weeks, the NABE panel downgraded the economic outlook for the next several quarters, compared with the previous survey.
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David Nicklaus has covered St. Louis business for more than 25 years. His column appears three days a week on the Post-Dispatch business page. 
This cant be! The large 20 percent who call themselves republicans wont have any of this! They want everything to fail!
I stopped by my local produce stand and they’re selling “Green Shoots of Recovery” for $1.99/lb.
This is the shortest recession in histoy - judging by the media, it only started two months ago and now it’s already over! Whoopee!
Hey, since the Recession is over can we have our jobs back from China, India and Mexico now?
Does this mean my IRA will go back up as fast as is went down. I’m still waiting for my bailout.
Say what you want, joedirt. When 2010 comes and the unemployment rate is 10%, millions are still being laid off, and higher taxes take effect, millions will see why Republicans and Independents want this POLICY to fail. I can see how you mistake policy for “everything”. Because government policy to folks like you is the only thing. We just spent 875 billion for “free” stuff. And that 20% you speak of is just another fake liberal mantra to try to diminish those with whom they disagree. You’ll see your 20% come November 2010.
the same people who couldn’t see this recession coming are the same one’s who are telling us its going to be over in autumn. nice very nice
It’s not over until the housing corrects itself.
Everything’s gone green. Did any of you buy the previous blue paint tape that is now green? What a ploy by the company that makes the tape. It is the exact tape, but now it’s green so people will mistake it for being made of something that is considered “green”. I suspect all of this will go the way of the Atkins Diet? Anybody remember that craze 10 years ago?
As a kid I remember the bullies would stick their leg out and then push you across it so you’d fall and then they’d say:
“Hey, have a nice trip, see you next fall!” and then they’d laugh heartily as you rubbed your scraped knees.
I feel like that’s what the current and the previous five administrations have done to Americans. Obama is no diffent. Liberals think he is because he had a slick marketing campaign. I sure have seen any difference. They’re still rewarding for failure and using the American taxpayer as a scapegoat. “Well maybe if you worked for low wages and lived in a box down by the river this wouldn’t have happened is the Republicrats reply”.
I’m tired of the one party system. Can we outsource the government?
Abolish the Federal Reserve that will resolve the “problem”
Watch this and understand the scam…
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LeX4mc1JUmk&feature=related