The latest survey from the National Association for Business Economics has some good news and some bad news about the macroeconomic outlook. A majority (74 percent) of the 45 participating economists think the recession will end by the third quarter of this year, but they don’t think the recovery will be very strong.

The forecasters see gross domestic product rising at just a 1.2 percent annual rate in the second half of this year, after shrinking in the first half. Predicted GDP growth rises to 2.7 percent in 2010, which is about in line with the long-term trend but is significantly more sluggish than the typical first year of a recovery. In February, the NABE panel was forecasting 3.1 percent growth for 2010.

The economists think unemployment will hit 9.8 percent by the end of this year and then drop to 9.3 percent at the end of 2010.

Chris Varvares, president of Macroeconomic Advisers and of the NABE, summarizes:

While the overall tone remains soft, there are emerging signs that the economy is stabilizing. The survey found that business economists look for the recession to end soon, but that the economic recovery is likely to be considerably more moderate than those typically experienced following steep declines. Moreover, despite encouraging signs seen in the last several weeks, the NABE panel downgraded the economic outlook for the next several quarters, compared with the previous survey.