Economists say recession is over, but jobless rate will stay high
Members of the National Association for Business Economics think that the recession is over, but that the unemployment rate will remain almost as high a year ago from now as it is now today. Those are the highlights of a survey the association released today during its annual convention in St. Louis. Specifically, the survey found:
- 81 percent of NABE members believe that the recession has ended, and members’ median forecast for gross domestic product growth in 2010 is 3 percent. Lynn Reaser, incoming NABE president and an economist at Point Loma Nazarene University, remarked that the consensus forecast is definitely for a V-shaped recovery, not a “W” or any other letter of the alphabet.
- Unemployment will reach 10 percent by the end of this year, up from the current reading of 9.8 percent, and will remain at 9.5 percent at the end of 2010.
- Nearly three-quarters of economists think financial markets will be back to normal in 2010. Twenty-one percent expect a return to normalcy this year, 21 percent say it will happen in the first half of next year and 29 percent say we’ll get there in the second half of next year.
The economists also were optimistic about the housing market. Sixty-five percent said home prices either have already hit bottom or will do so by the end of this year. An additional 17 percent said prices will bottom out in the first quarter of 2010.
The economists also were asked to identify their major concerns about the economy. The federal debt topped their list, followed by stubbornly high unemployment, rising food and energy prices, protectionism and weak consumer spending.
Reaser, by the way, is a former St. Louisan. She once was based here as chief economist for Bank of America Capital Markets. She takes over the NABE presidency from a current St. Louisan, Chris Varvares of Macroeconomic Advisers.
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David Nicklaus has covered St. Louis business for more than 25 years. His column appears three days a week on the Post-Dispatch business page. 
Oh the positive spin just never ends with these guys. It’s all better now folks, go out and get those credit cards heated up again! Anyone that believes their unemployment numbers is a complete idiot. The true numbers are closer to 15-18%. Interesting that they also fail to mention the upcoming commercial real estate collapse (and subsequent bailout), the completely anemic retail sales, the 2nd wave of home foreclosures that are getting ready to hit, or the collapse of the US auto industry. The recession is over alright. We have been in a depression for the last six months.
Woo-hoo! Now I can go get that new Harley I’ve always wanted, move into a bigger house, and buy a 50″ flat screen.
What am I thinking? I believe I’ll wait until I see POSITIVE JOB GROWTH for the next few quarters, and my company quits making us take time off without pay.
Whats good for Wall Street is not always good for main street. Due to capital investment overseas and elsewhere jobs will not be forthcoming. It stands to reason that the more equipment firms utilize the less labor they need to produce. Thus due to capital investment there will not be an excess of jobs to be had. We can subsidize needed investment in green energy, alternatives to fossil fuels, and medical care but most jobless Americans are likely to stay that way in the near future. We could give land grants and develop farm land for food production to feed the starving but sadly there in not much money in feeding those without money. Occupancy rates are low we have few American buyers for the multitudes of homes available so building new palaces for the rich is more obscene than usual. Do not look for a construction boom even though the democrats would like one. New Construction is just not needed the market is saturated. Market saturation is a major problem we have an abundance of goods with few buyers. We have deflation too many goods chasing too few buyers. Sadly to say government spending is in order but few will benefit most unemployed Americans are going to need subsidization just to stay alive. Again very sad that abundance has caused poverty.
Yeah, I’ll believe it when I see concrete positive growth. The article states that unemployment will increase & home prices have yet to hit bottom, but we’re supposed to believe that the recession is over? It sounds like we’re just hitting rock bottom. I guess the positive side to that is that we have no where else to go but up, but I’ll believe it when I see it. I do believe that things can & will get worse especially when the new taxes on business, thanks to cap & trade & health care “reform” are enacted.
Why can’t you people be more positive? It is possible to have a jobless recovery and just because the jobs lost throughout the Bush regime and now the Obamination are gone for good doesn’t mean they can’t be replaced with BILLIONS of “Green Jobs” (throwing baskets of Green Jobs from Obama’s window). Or maybe you don’t believe this latest indoctrination because you’re all racists and want to rush home and put on your KKK robes? That’s it isn’t it? You don’t want to believe the Good Times have returned because you’re racists.
The recession is over but the the debt this country is running up is incredible, and that is not even counting the health care mess. Did these same economists predict the current failure of the economy and housing market or did they predict it after it was clear the ship was taking on water.
The Obama administration wants to borrow more money for another stimulus too?
I would trust the prediction of ordinary people rather than the NABE. Most people I know are not doing so well. Many face long-term unemployment, the unemployment rate is 10%, the housing inventory supply is 10+ months, and there’s not a lot of business activity. St. Louis was one of the cities identified by the Fed. Reserve as still facing a declining economy as opposed to other areas of the US. It’s definitely a recession and not a recovery. Look at how many homes are for sale around your neighborhood.
If the national unemployment rate is 7% or higher and stays there for more than a year, it’s a recession no matter what the economists claim! Round up all the illegal immigrants and send them home. While we’re at it, impose a ten-year moratorium on immigration. We have too many people in the US as it is. Who’d want to move here now anyway? Move to China instead!
I want what they are smoking to think that it’s over. This thing is far from being over. We are going to be in the valley for a long time and until economic prosperity returns in the new form will it be over. The fall may not be as sharp as it had been over the past year but it’s still not over. I need a job and still don’t have one. What about us??? If it’s over, we would be working.
Huh?
“…the unemployment rate will remain almost as high a year ago as it is now.”