Tommy Thompson, who was secretary of health and human services during President George W. Bush’s first term, predicts that Congress will pass a health-care bill this year that includes the so-called public option.

Speaking at the National Association for Business Economics convention, Thompson said the House will pass a bill that includes the public option, while the Senate will pass a bill that does not. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and other Democrats will insist on their version in conference committee, Thompson said, and will ultimately win. Then, he said, Senate leaders will take up the bill under budget-reconciliation rules, which require only a simple majority for passage.

The final vote, he predicted, will occur just before Christmas. The consequences for private health insurers, Thompson said, will be dire and dramatic:

With or without reform, there’s going to be consolidation. Every one of the private health insurance companies went down in membership last year. When you look at that handwriting on the wall and you add a public health plan … a lot of health insurance comapanies are not going to make it. There is going to be consolidation and changes, and they are going to have to change the way they sell health insurance.

Thompson, a former governor of Wisconsin, told reporters that he’s considering a run for governor or senator in his home state. But, he said, he’s reluctant to give up his business interests, which include a seat on the board of Centene Corp.