What matters in a presidential contest?

That was among the questions bandied about Thursday during a spirited bipartisan panel discussion on one of the topics high on the National Urban League’s agenda — “Will the Black Vote Be Taken for Granted in the 2008 Presidential Election?”

USA Today columnist DeWayne Wickham summed it up by offering cautions to those who support U.S. Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton, D-N.Y., or Sen. Barack Obama, D-Ill.

“Gender still matters … race still matters,” Wickham said.

“If Obama was selected,” for example, he predicted, “that would bring great joy to the Republicans.”

Throughout the nation’s history, Wickham added, the presidential victor has “been the last white male left standing.”

That was among the reasons why he added that former Sen. John Edwards of North Carolina still had a chance, despite some political setbacks in recent weeks.

“He’s a sleeper and sometimes comes across as soft and weak,” Wickham said. “But since 1964, no Democrat has been elected to the White House who didn’t come from the South. Region still matters. If you can’t crack the solid South, you won’t win the presidency.”

(The Rev. Al Sharpton also praised Edwards as “brave” for centering his current campaign about poverty and refusing to back his “Two Americas” theme from 2004.)

As for the Republicans, Wickham and the Rev. Joe Watkins – a Republican analyst for MSNBC — both said that Sen. John McCain’s support for the Iraq War has hurt him with independent voters, while fellow Republicans are turned off by his stance on immigration (he agrees with the president on some sort of guest worker program).

Watkins contended that the GOP candidate to watch is former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, who has raised the most money and has strong poll numbers in early primary states. Watkins said those pluses will help Romney overcome his low poll numbers nationally.

Wickham contended, however, that Romney is damaged by his image as a flip-flopper. “He was the Republican governor of a liberal Democratic state, and he now acts like he was the governor of Alabama at the same time as George Wallace,” Wickham said.

Wall also praised Romney as having the best minority-outreach program. To that, Morial replied, “Then call him and tell him I’ve got a mike for him tomorrow” at the presidential forum.

But it was the sparring over former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani that brought down the house. Watkins had praised Giuliani’s image as a take-charge leader in the aftermath of 9/11, but added that his personal problems could cause trouble at the polls, especially with fellow Republicans.

Watkins noted the public troubles that Giuliani “has had with his wives…”

The Rev. Al Sharpton jumped in to emphasize the reference to “WIVES,” as he put it loudly. The crowd roared.

Sharpton then recounted how Giuliani had been taken to court to prevent his then-girlfriend (now wife) from being taken to the city-owned mayoral residence while his current wife and children lived there. Such episodes won’t play when they’re publicized to voters nationally, Sharpton said.

Said Wickham: “I think the female vote will run to the Democrat if (Giuliani) is the nominee.”

Republican commentator Tara Wall then interrupted to note the scandal over former Democratic President Bill Clinton’s dalliances with intern Monica Lewinsky in the White House. “The White House is our (taxpayers’) house as well,” she said, attempting to put Sen. Clinton and Giuliani in the same boat.

The crowd wasn’t buying it. They cheered when Sharpton jumped in, declaring, “This time Hillary is running, not Bill.”

Wall countered that Sen. Clinton has been campaigning a lot lately with her husband, but that didn’t seem to sway the audience.

The moderator, National Urban League President Marc Morial, broke up the verbal back-and-forth to observe that both sides had underscored the same point:

“Sex matters.”

On that point, the audience laughed in agreement.