This move has national implications. If either or both Emerson or Hulshof run, their seats (safe GOP seats when they run) would become in play and become potential Democratic turnovers. The best thing for Republicans would be for their congresspeople to seek reelection and let Kinder or Steelman run for the governorship. While Kinder and Steelman’s positions would also be placed in greater risk of turnover, those offices don’t have the same national implications as control of Congress.

Steelman for Governor and Donnelly for Treasurer - I heard this may be a possibility

Actually I think the best thing for Missouri is to get one of the Republican congresspersons to run (preferably Hulshof.) I’ve had enough of the petty and short sighted politics that plague Jeff City currently.

Oracle - There was a time when I’d agree with you that these are swing districts. But I think it has been several years since that was the case. When Hulshof first won his district, a lot of us were surprised. But he pulled 61.4% in the last election, a tenth of a percent better than Todd Akin did in the safely Republican 2nd district. And Emerson got 71.6% in 2006, nearly as lopsided a win as Lacy Clay’s 72.9%. The Republicans would have to run a total loser for these districts to change hands.

Nick,

I guess you haven’t heard of the “slurge.” It’s a political science term that combines “sophomore surge” and retirement slump.”

Basically, when there is an open congressional seat, the margin of victory is pretty slim, but when an incumbent is elected to their second term, the margin of victory increases on average 9% or thereabouts.

Nothing personal, but I won’t support Emerson for Governor. She is clearly not capable and with a Democrat husband - no thanks!

Ok here’s a rumor. Bond is resigning after Super Tuesday, Roy becomes Senator and Matt takes/runs for his seat. Governor is Hulshof if he wants it. Bond will be the leader and stand down Steelman and Kidner. Loudon for LT Gov. No word from Jack Jackson. Geez Wow ETC………

Nick, as Nate notes, the winning percentage of the current incumbent congressman is a bad measure of the political tendency of a district when the seat is open. (E.g., Democrat Ike Skelton holds the 2nd most Republican district in the state; he won reelection last time by running a full 31 percentage points ahead of John Kerry. When he steps down or dies, Republicans take it (subject to how it gets redistricted).) While presidential vote is lower (Bush in 2004 got 59% in Hulshof’s district and 63% in Emerson’s), it is also a too-Republican benchmark for a rural MO congressional open seat. I don’t have the Talent-McCaskill numbers broken down by congressional district, but those numbers would be better. Furthermore, unless the Democrats blow it, this is shaping up as a Democratic year that will inflate Democratic numbers and deflate Republican numbers. Decent Republican candidates will still be favored, but they won’t be slam dunks.

As to your comparison with “the safely Republican 2nd district,” Republican strength in the suburbs is receding as fast as its strength is increasing in the rural districts. The 2nd district was MO’s most Republican district in the 1990s, but using the 2004 Bush vote as a gauge, the 2nd district was only the 4th most Republican district, which is damned near the median. Bush’s 60% there was topped by the SWMO 7th (67%), Skelton’s 4th (64%) and even Emerson’s 8th. Hulshof’s 9th was in fact the real median district at 59%.

I’ve also heard the Steelman for Governor, Donnelly for Treasurer thing. Sounds funny at first, but actually makes a lot of sense when you think about it.

Go for it, Margaret - as much as I support you - it makes more sense to chase the Treasurer gig when Steelman runs for Gov. I don’t care where your supporters go (probably to Harris, which is fine), I just want you to get a state-wide spot!!!

I find all of the predictions entertaining, and some of them pretty clever (and plausible). But I am surprised that no one is throwing out one of the GOP’s favorite sons as a potential replacement. Talent. He has ran for Governor, he clearly wanted the job before. Many people admit they really liked Jim, but were protesting Bush in the last election. Super nice guy, out of the fray of Missouri State Legislative politics, and no loss of any currently held seats. I know I am not the only one thinking it (or saying it).

By the way, the scenario of Bond stepping down, Blunt appointing Daddy, and so on is not only implausible, but illegal.

As a current office holder myself, I know that Missouri law preempts ANY elected official from appointing or even voting on the appointment of a family member to ANY position. One of my colleagues was forced to forfeit his office three years ago for simply voting to approve his wife’s appointment to a citizen board.

Now, Missouri law also allows for the Lt. Governor to have full gubernatorial authority when the Governor leaves the state. So if Blunt goes on vacation, Kinder could do the dirty work…

I find it amusing that Margaret Donnelly has been running around telling everyone that she’s the most qualified to serve as attorney general, and now may decide to run for a different seat, if given the opportunity.

What a hoot! Pick an office … ANY office!!

Meanwhile, Bond has no desire to retire from the senate. Why would he?

I will go ahead and recant the Talent talk, since I was just told by people in D.C. that he has already squashed that idea.

* Republican strength is eroding in the suburbs primarily because the St. Louis county Republicans are pathetic losers. These are the folks who appointed Charlie Doolie because he’d be easy to get rid of, failed to do so in the first election, and couldn’t even come up with a candidate in the next election. Then, when Joe P. put his name on the line, he ran without a dime of support from the party.

* I’m not saying that incumbents’ margins are a measure of the district’s party mix. Indeed, no race is a perfect measure, because every race is a product of many factors. But when somebody wins by lopsided margins like Clay and Emerson, that district isn’t likely to switch parties when the incumbent leaves.

* Ike Skelton is a special case - he’s been there for 30 years, and he’s a hawk who opposes abortion, gay rights, and gun control. You’re right that to say that district is likely to go Republican when Skelton retires, because if you put aside the (D) after his name, it has already gone Republican.

* Purple Leader - It would be legal for Blunt to go on vacation for for Kinder to do the dirty work. But it would be devastating to the Republicans in the next election. I can’t imagine they’re stupid enough to pull something like that.

Democrats are asking for trouble if Margaret Donnelly (or any other white candidate for another office) switches to the Treasurer’s race. An African American candidate named Andria Simckes has announced for that position, raised nearly 20K last year, and apparently has Sen. McCaskill’s blessing. It is bad enough for Democratic party regulars merely to slate a black candidate only as a sacrifice against the popular Steelman (like they did the only other time there was an African American on the statewide ticket, pitting Alan Wheat against a then popular John Ashcroft in the year Republicans took over congress), but if they then switch to a white candidate when the contest becomes an open seat, they will validate suspicions of how seriously they take their African American base for granted. In a year with racial tension surrounding the Democratic presidential race, the city’s Democratic mayor’s rocky relationship with the black community, and the likely nomination of Jay Nixon to be governor, strongarming Simckes out of the treasurers race (just like Susan Montee strongarmed Maida Coleman out of the auditor’s race) will only strain relations worse.

Ahhh. Nick. You forget, Blunt is still Governor until next January. So there is still a chance, he would have to wait until after the election to pull that switch. But I think there is little chance for that anyway.

By the way, good analysis Oracle. But I think that ambitions and the elitism of the party will win over and Margaret will switch races, and win.