I find all of the predictions entertaining, and some of them pretty clever (and plausible). But I am surprised that no one is throwing out one of the GOP’s favorite sons as a potential replacement. Talent. He has ran for Governor, he clearly wanted the job before. Many people admit they really liked Jim, but were protesting Bush in the last election. Super nice guy, out of the fray of Missouri State Legislative politics, and no loss of any currently held seats. I know I am not the only one thinking it (or saying it).

By the way, the scenario of Bond stepping down, Blunt appointing Daddy, and so on is not only implausible, but illegal.

As a current office holder myself, I know that Missouri law preempts ANY elected official from appointing or even voting on the appointment of a family member to ANY position. One of my colleagues was forced to forfeit his office three years ago for simply voting to approve his wife’s appointment to a citizen board.

Now, Missouri law also allows for the Lt. Governor to have full gubernatorial authority when the Governor leaves the state. So if Blunt goes on vacation, Kinder could do the dirty work…

I find it amusing that Margaret Donnelly has been running around telling everyone that she’s the most qualified to serve as attorney general, and now may decide to run for a different seat, if given the opportunity.

What a hoot! Pick an office … ANY office!!

Meanwhile, Bond has no desire to retire from the senate. Why would he?

I will go ahead and recant the Talent talk, since I was just told by people in D.C. that he has already squashed that idea.

* Republican strength is eroding in the suburbs primarily because the St. Louis county Republicans are pathetic losers. These are the folks who appointed Charlie Doolie because he’d be easy to get rid of, failed to do so in the first election, and couldn’t even come up with a candidate in the next election. Then, when Joe P. put his name on the line, he ran without a dime of support from the party.

* I’m not saying that incumbents’ margins are a measure of the district’s party mix. Indeed, no race is a perfect measure, because every race is a product of many factors. But when somebody wins by lopsided margins like Clay and Emerson, that district isn’t likely to switch parties when the incumbent leaves.

* Ike Skelton is a special case - he’s been there for 30 years, and he’s a hawk who opposes abortion, gay rights, and gun control. You’re right that to say that district is likely to go Republican when Skelton retires, because if you put aside the (D) after his name, it has already gone Republican.

* Purple Leader - It would be legal for Blunt to go on vacation for for Kinder to do the dirty work. But it would be devastating to the Republicans in the next election. I can’t imagine they’re stupid enough to pull something like that.

Democrats are asking for trouble if Margaret Donnelly (or any other white candidate for another office) switches to the Treasurer’s race. An African American candidate named Andria Simckes has announced for that position, raised nearly 20K last year, and apparently has Sen. McCaskill’s blessing. It is bad enough for Democratic party regulars merely to slate a black candidate only as a sacrifice against the popular Steelman (like they did the only other time there was an African American on the statewide ticket, pitting Alan Wheat against a then popular John Ashcroft in the year Republicans took over congress), but if they then switch to a white candidate when the contest becomes an open seat, they will validate suspicions of how seriously they take their African American base for granted. In a year with racial tension surrounding the Democratic presidential race, the city’s Democratic mayor’s rocky relationship with the black community, and the likely nomination of Jay Nixon to be governor, strongarming Simckes out of the treasurers race (just like Susan Montee strongarmed Maida Coleman out of the auditor’s race) will only strain relations worse.

Ahhh. Nick. You forget, Blunt is still Governor until next January. So there is still a chance, he would have to wait until after the election to pull that switch. But I think there is little chance for that anyway.

By the way, good analysis Oracle. But I think that ambitions and the elitism of the party will win over and Margaret will switch races, and win.