If for some reason, McCain doesn’t get the nomination on the first ballot, then it’s a wide open contest. In the 1968 Democratic Party convention, Hubert Humphrey got the nomination, even though he didn’t run in the primaries. That’s because no one won on the first ballot.

A lot of Republicans hate McCain. The evangelicals, which are still quite strong in the party, won’t go for Romney. The economy is falling apart and neither McCain nor Romney have a handle on economic reality. Their economic views are essentially the same as the Bush adminitration’s, so they offer nothing.

If Ron Paul comes to the convention with a significant number of delegates, and a significant number of supporters outside the convention hall, he could pull off a coup. It’s a long-shot, but if McCain has health problems (so far, he’s refused to reveal his medical records), or looks as if he can’t win against Obama or Hillary (which he probably can’t), then the Republican Party will have to look elsewhere.

McCain will easily win against Obama or Clinton. Obama is a VERY extreme liberal whose history and views are starting to leak out - for example, ABC News’ coverage of his pastor of 20 years, who is a bigot of the order of Farrakhan. Clinton is damaged goods. And for those of you who haven’t noticed, the media doesn’t hate McCain like they do Bush. I know, that isn’t such a good sign for conservatives … but as I said before, if he sticks to his guns on the earmark issue, and doesn’t do too much damage on other things, I’ll be a satisfied customer.

Any other number crunchers out there?
I think a lot of folks have underestimated the acumen with which Dr. Paul has played the game to win the election. He’s rightfully given his grass roots the estimation they deserve, knowing that they are the key to success. He knows that his supporters are sold on the ideas he’s espoused, and their numbers will only grow. This phenomenon really has the GOP over a barrel, because they know that without R.P. supporters, they have no prayer of winning. The most they can hope for is being held up to ridicule if they run anybody else. Let’s look at this, shall we?

Yellow dog GOPers-20-30%(MC+ Huck split) -R. P. supporters- 10-30%= 35-50% of the electorate ( no way to determine exactly, due to election rigging)
Then you’ve got your 3rd party block which could only go to 1. Ron Paul, 2. independent candidates, or 3. a democrat (definitely not for GOP candidate other than R.P.)=20-30% of the electorate
And finally you’ve got the democratic side of the equasion, where you’ve got
Yellow dog dems-20% , anti war dem voters- 10-20%= 35-40% of the electorate Now when you look at these numbers and move them around you see that the most significant variable is the candidacy of Ron Paul (or lack thereof.) Should the GOP not pick Dr. Paul, let’s look at what happens. They’re left without R.P. supporters, 95% of whom will jump ship for a third party candidate ( or less likely, a dem.) You may also have some conservatives, realizing their plight , jumping ship for a Constitution or Libertarian candidate. This leaves them with, best case scenario-20-30% of the electorate, a joke of a candidacy by any estimation. Result- dissolution of the GOP due to this and continuing disrepute due to GWB admin.
Now look at what happens if they DO pick the right candidate (Ron Paul.) They get the yellow dog GOP vote (chance 1-5% of left wing will jump ship for communist party after their conversion of GOP threatened)-19-26% of the electorate, then you’ve got the Ron Paul grass roots, amounting, by election time to in the area of 35-40% of the electorate, but even if you use the current estimates of 10-30% of the electorate. Then you’ve got the estimated 20-30% of indy voters at least 80% of which will get behind R.P. as a Peace candidate, which gives you another18-30% of the electorate. And finally, you’ve got the disenchanted democratic voters who will bound overboard to vote for a bona fide anti war candidate. I estimate the number of dems disgusted after the ‘06 election to be 25-40%, equaling out to 10-15% of the electorate.
So let’s look at the totals, and please; if I’m way off base here, show me where my miscalculations are. Now, we have
19-26%-yellow dogs
10-40%- Ron Paul grass roots
18-30%-independents
10-15%- anti-war democrats
———
57-100% total support for the GOP candidate. Of course the Best case scenario would,in actuality not be 100%. This is a total of best cases, but the total could be very high. The worst case scenario couldn’t be much lower than 57%.
So let’s compare the GOP’s choices in ‘08
McCain or Huckabee-20-30% of electorate
Ron Paul-57-100% of the electorate
Now you can bet the GOP has already crunched these numbers, and you can bet on frequent underwear changes.

The democrats are not guaranteed to win either if the GOP runs a dead dog against them. we can crunch the numbers there as well. The two possible scenarios are that a strong third party candidate will emerge or that they won’t.
First you’ve got the yellow doggers15-20% of the electorate, then you’ve got irate dems who are still livid after ‘06 betrayal. Probably 30% of these will hold their noses and vote dem. amounting to another 5-7% of the electorate. Then you’ve got uninformed Indy’s who’ll vote dem. in order to ensure GOP failure. I figure another 3-7% of the electorate. this will depend on the viability of the third party candidate, and finally you’ve got Ron Paul supporters and GOPers (Coulter, et al) who’ll hold their noses and vote dem. This should be another 3-7% of the electorate .
On the other side of the equasion you’ve got a strong third party candidate or a number of write in campaigns, in any event you’ve got 1. A majority of Ron Paul grass roots who will never vote dem. You’re looking at between15 and 30% of the electorate. Then you’ve got 2. the majority of the indy voters who will reject the 4 more years of business as usual that both the GOP and the dems represent. The weakness of the other parties will embolden them to vote third party. I figure between15 and25% of the electorate. Then you’ve got 3. a huge group of dems who have vowed not to be betrayed again by the dem. party and will gladly jump ship in support of a strong anti war, constitutionalist platform. you can estimate between10 and 20% of the electorate.
So, lets read ‘em and weep.
vote % based on no third party threat:
15-20%- yellow dog dems
5-7% -gagging irate dem
3-7%- uninformed indys.
3-7%- R.P. and Coulterite voters
——–
26-41% of the electorate, total. Not particularly appetizing, best case they may win.
on the other hand we have voting third party:
15-30%- resolute R3volutionaries
15-25%- Independents rejecting current state of affairs
10-20%- democrats delighted to stick it to their betrayers
———–
35-75% total third party voters. Best case would not likely approach 75%, but even worst case makes it a close race with the others’ best case.
So the Democratic party doesn’t have an easy row to hoe either. I recommend buying stock in Fruit of the Loom or Hanes.

Of course the NWO can game the election, but they’d have to work every angle in both parties to reasonably expect public acceptance of the results. I predict that they’ll retrench and let the people speak for now, too many of us are paying attention. They can always pull a JFK at their leisure after some of us have gone back to sleep. I’m open to other interpretations.
Thank You.

O.K. Once more I will try to explain why R.P. is a shoo-in. The republican backbone is the conservative wing. Almost every repub you talk to will tell you that he or she is conservative.Ron Paul has won endorsements from the American Conservative Magazine and the conservative political action committee(CPAC) The conservative wing is astute enough to realize that, given the record of the last 8 years, they haven’t a snowballs chance in November with anybody other than Ron Paul due to several factors.
1. McCain is a fatally flawed candidate. Swift boat campaign is gearing up only now.
2. R.P.’s grass roots will exit en mass should R.P. not be nominated. This coupled with general disenchantment among conservatives bodes for apathy among the base.
3. A significant number of disenchanted repubs would sooner vote for Hillarity (See Coulter)
4. In light of 1., 2., and 3. above, only a totally brain dead repub will get off of a dime to support what will laughingly be put up as a candidacy. Don’t forget, These folks are expected to donate just as Ron Paul supporters have, and you can see by what’s happened so far that they havent got anybody willing to support their candidates with cash.
5. The military voters have put their money where their mouths are and you can bet they’ll either go independent or democrat, because they are becoming aware of what’s in store for them under a continued neo-con paradigm.
6. Well, there are many other mitigating factors, virtually all negative for the repubs. Public awareness of election fraud and media manipulation to name one.
So McCain will be a very tough sell to the leaders of the GOP especially if they are virtually guaranteed a victory with Ron Paul, with the independents and demos he will draw into the fold as a peace candidate. True enough, the powers that be have anointed Hillarity and are infuencing the GOP to put someone up there who is designed to fail. A certain percentage of the conservatives will not go along with this sham, if only by reason of its transparency. Republicans can not abide being held up as laughing stocks. No the writing is on the wall. Mene mene tekel upharsin: The neo- con agenda has proven to be bankrupt, the R.P. revolutionaries will cause untold difficulties for the GOP should they be disenfranchised, The party faces extinction with things as they are shaping up to be, and they secretly know in their hearts that R.P.’s principles are aligned with their own. I have a sneakin’ suspicion that, coming on the heels of the CPAC meeting (where McCain was heckled and Paul was lauded) the press release was not to announce defeat, but to soft pedal the receipt of the news that his slot was in the works, and that a” scandal” would force McCain out (actually told to go home by GOP) and to lull the demos into (mistakenly) beginning their celebrations so that they would be subject to ridicule and excoriation later.
I may be naiive about all this, but I think Romney’s “suspension” was an exploratory ploy to see if R.P. would then drop out in dismay of losing the chance at a brokered convention. He held fast to his unassailable position, and I predict that Romney will soon withdraw. The plan has been to jettison McCain all along but these things must be done delicately in order to avoid alienating the joe sixpack wing. so if you read between the lines you will see that Dr. Paul’s message was guardedly hopeful, not defeatist. Doctors learn, after a while to give you the worst case scenario so that in the event of a miraculous recovery, their treatment can be vindicated.O chance of brokered convention. 100% chance of uncontested nomination of Ron Paul for president.(unless I’m completely asea on this, in which case I humbly beg your pardons.) Thank You

Actually there is a process where you can make bound delegates turned into unbound and thats what they plan to do

McCain has 385 committed delegates as of today. http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P08/R.phtml the national convention is months away, McCain is having great difficulty collecting $$$> why I find myself asking seeing America is told Republicans have chosen McCain as their man. If McCain is the Republican torch barrier then where are the millions of support dollars? There seams to be a disconnect folks; I submit McCain is not the Party nominee. Ron Paul should be and perhaps will. He has 30 years economic, and government experience and even a non-debt campaign.

You Ronulans are very funny people.

Now, back on your meds… shu… go home!

As a long term GOP member from Va I must chim in. I have supported the GOP in every election and voted party line…. Now look at what this old voting method has provided… We now have a budget that is so far out of line it makes Bill Clinton’s efforts look like limited gov efforts.

We now have our millitary stuck in an undeclared war but they sure to like to vote to pay for the dam war…. McCain hails a 100 year war and I didn’t buy that.

McCain looked like a fool in the last debate that GOP members were allowed to ask one quetsion and Paul asked Paul in regards to ecnomic issues and McCain simply stated he would refer these issn’t to his future cab. How laim is that.

McCain will not reveal his health records or the details of his time in prison camps…

So as GOP member I’m proud to be called a delegte and we expect to previl if not we have plan B in place and I’m proud to support plan B.

The GOP needs to be taken back to it’s roots the same roorts that make the party great and i for one will take the action needed to allow this to occur. If we can’t make headway by 2012 then I will leave the GOP and join the Constustiion party and support limited gov themes within that party. In my state we have Ron Paul Republicans running for offices of City Mayor, Congressman, Senator , etc.

As i see it if our nation is to prevail it’s becuase Ron Paul supporters are out defeating the REal Id Act, US Pat Act, IRS, Heck just last Thursday we had over 100 at each congressioanl office to oppose the TEC and the local press was amazed and had not seen anyone oppose local offices since NAM.

We are making a big effect just look at Alaska’s plateform of recent……

In closing how could anyone vote for McCain? He supported open borders and all he had to do was plege that he would support closed borders? If you trust this pledge then the people of Germany were right.

re: “So McCain will be a very tough sell to the leaders of the GOP…”

Uhhh, riiiiight. That’s why, starting in Florida, the biggest players in the GOP have been falling all over themselves endorsing McCain.

Of ALLLL the Republican candidates, which one is easily the closest thing to a Bush-successor? The closest thing to what Bush’s vice-president might have been like? In fact, the closest to what Bush’s actual vice-president is like? Answer: Giuliani or McCain. Of all the candidates, they were the ones most strongly in favor of continuing Bush’s policy of talking tough about “staying on the offense” (they’re also closely aligned with Bush on immigration).

After Giuliani poor showing in New Hampshire made it apparent that he was probably not a viable candidate, everything - party elder support and blatantly favorable news media coverage - started shifting toward McCain. After McCain’s victory in South Carolina, that shift was in full swing. By Florida, the fix was fully in place.

As for the Republican party being able to “shut down” Ron Pal supporters (not that they need to)…
For those who haven’t noticed, the Republican party’s primary mandate is: Presidential candidates must strongly support the continuing occupation of Iraq. They will not allow any dissent from that, much less outright repudiation. It really doesn’t matter that Ron Paul supports most of the traditional Republican principles more than the other candidates. For the party “elders” in 2008, the lack of support for the continuing occupation of Iraq is a deal-breaker. They just have too much political capital invested in it (and many of them will derive future financial benefit from it, too.)

Thus, Ron Paul’s primary campaign policy is incompatible with the fundamental imperative of the Republican party’s most influential “players” in 2008.

If McCain dropped dead of a heart attack before the convention, the contest would shift to Romney & Huckabee, and their factions would duke it out at convention. If those two were to get carried away, get into a fight and fall down a flight of stairs, breaking each other’s necks, the convention would be thrown into turmoil, but even then Ron Paul would NOT be permitted to nominated. Too many of the biggest players do NOT support him.

If McCain, Romney & Huckabee all died before the convention, the next in line might be Fred Thompson (though he’d probably decline the offer). After that, probably somebody who wasn’t even a candidate.

While I certainly “hope” that we someday get a leading candidate who is advocates - and will work toward - most of the policies Ron Paul has advocated for many years, that isn’t going to happen this year. Ron Paul’s policy proposals were certainly not the status quo, and to sell an extraordinary proposition like that takes both extraordinary personal persuasiveness and the support of at least a significant faction within a mainstream political party. Ron Paul had neither.

I would just like to say that as a Ron Paul supporter, I find the rest of you to be insane, ever since he started gaining a following I have felt this way but this is the first time its ever spilled over into annoyance, you shouldn’t worship him like a god, even if he is the best candidate, you blame the media for its bias, where were in in 2004! you weren’t complaining for Nader, Cobb, Badnarik, or Baldwin were you?, You should put some blame on yourselves it might be because your part of the worst generation ever to grace this Country.