Could an anti-affirmative action amendment on the state’s November ballot impact the presidential election?

Missouri is one of five states - joining Colorado, Arizona, Nebraska and Oklahoma - targeted by a group pushing a ballot question that would end racial or gender preferences for government contracts.

A piece in The Hill, a newspaper for Beltway insiders, wonders whether the measure could act as a wedge the same way the stem-cell initiative in Missouri did two years ago.

But while the stem cell issue helped Claire McCaskill gain visibility on the way to unseating Republican Jim Talent, this time it could be Democrats on the defensive.

From The Hill story:

“I see it, rhetorically, more putting Democrats in a tough spot,” said David Kimball, a political scientist at the University of Missouri-St. Louis. “They’re going to have to reject [the initiative] or avoid an issue that core Democrats care about.”

The anti-affirmative action initiatives could play a role in the presidential race, with Colorado and Missouri looking like swing states and with Democrats nominating either a woman, Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (N.Y.), or an African-American, Sen. Barack Obama (Ill.), Kimball said.

It will be easier, the story says, for the presidential candidates to dodge questions about the affirmative action measure than local candidates, who as fall approaches will likely be asked for their stance.

But, as The Hill counters, affirmative action may already be part of the race for the White House, thanks to comments made this week by former vice presidential candidate Geraldine Ferraro.