Mo population projections hint at lost congressional seats
The state Office of Administration just released a new set of population projections for the state of Missouri through 2030.
The projections deal with all 114 counties and the city of St. Louis.
(Click here for the full report.)
The key findings:
–”Missouri’s population is expected to approach 6.8 million people in 2030, a growth of roughly 1.2 million people from the year 2000, which will represent a 21% increase in the state’s population.”
–”Missouri’s rank among the nation’s most populous states has been on the decline since the turn of the century, when Missouri ranked fifth in the nation. Missouri’s standing fell two positions during the decade of the 1990s dropping from the fifteenth spot in 1990 to seventeenth by 2000. Missouri’s projected growth rate of approximately 6% per decade is slower than the nation’s projected rate of 10% per decade.”
—”By 2030, persons over age 65 will represent more than one-fifth of all Missourians. Senior citizens are expected to increase 87% between 2000 and 2030 when there are projected to be 1.4 million seniors.”
–”The number of children under the age of 18 in Missouri is expected to increase but not as rapidly as persons 18 and over. Between 2000 and 2030, Missouri children are expected to increase by roughly 7% while the 18 and over population will increase by nearly 25%.”
–”Natural change (births minus deaths) will continue to add the largest number of people to Missouri’s population. Natural change is expected to add an average of 244,000 Missourians per decade.”
– Missouri will gain slightly more people through immigration, than it will lose through migration. “Moreover, net migration (those migrating in compared to those migrating out) is expected to further increase Missouri’s population by 139,000 persons every ten years,” the report said.
The projections come from the state demographer, part of the Office of Administration’s Division of Budget and Planning. ”The projections were reviewed by a team of demographic experts before being released,” the report said.
“The projections do not include breakouts by ethnic group. 2007 estimates of Missouri’s population by race and ethnicity will be available, by county, in August of 2008 from the U.S. Census Bureau.”
The upshot: Missouri will likely lose one of its nine congressional seats after the 2010 census, and might lose another one or 2 by 2030.
Who loses, in this game of political “musical chairs,” will likely depend on whether Republicans or Democrats control the Legislature and the governor’s office.
The word on the streets: If the GOP remains in control, expect Reps. Russ Carnahan and Lacy Clay to get tossed into the same city district.
If the Dems take over, the outstate Republican members of Congress likely will need to take cover.
After the 1980 census, the last time the state lost a seat, Democratic control in the state Legislature led to Republican Wendell Bailey losing his seat. Much of his district’s territory was moved into the 8th District, then represented by fellow Republican Bill Emerson. Bailey chose instead in 1982 to run against Democrat Ike Skelton in the 4th District. Skelton won.
After the 1990 census, Rep. Richard A. Gephardt (then D-St. Louis) and the elder then-Rep. William L. Clay teamed up, making the region’s 2nd District more Republican, helping to kill the re-election chances of then-Rep. Joan Kelly Horn, D-Ladue.
After the 2000 census, Missouri kept all of its seats, but it took some fast footwork on the part of Gephardt’s office to keep him with a safe Democratic seat.
Gephardt, by then D-St. Louis County, was helped in getting a map through the Legislature in 2001, while the state House was still in Democratic hands (as was the governor’s mansion.). The Senate had just switched to the GOP after the Democrats lost a special election in January 2001 to fill Joe Maxwell’s old state Senate seat.
(The loser of the 2001 jockeying: Lacy Clay, whose redrawn seat now has a population that’s roughly half black and half white, and more politically split, compared to the old 1st District lines.)
(4 votes, average: 4 out of 5)
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Excellent analysis, Jo, especially the observation at the end about Lacy Clay’s current district. It is doubtful that the 2001 splitting of African American voters between Clay and Carnahan would pass constitutional scrutiny, but no one challenged the districts in court. That lack of litigation may inspire Democrats (if they gain control of the process) to extend Clay’s district to include 2nd Dist. Rep Todd Akin (R), in a district that would still favor Clay. (Bush only got 25% in the current 1st District, so there is plenty of room for more Republicans.) The district would be majority white, but if no one challenges it, they’ll get away with it.
Here’s how I foresee the likely Democrat redistricting strategy if they take control. The aforesaid Clay-Akin district (oooh, that has a bad sound to it) would divide St Louis city and county into two districts with 55% Democrat pluralities. A new district surrounding KC (and perhaps bearing the number of the StL district eliminated by the above move) would be tailor-made for former KC Mayor Kay Barnes (whether or not she wins the 6th this year). The 6th and 9th would be combined into a single northern MO district that would be politically marginal and favor whoever wins the 9th this year (but it would be numbered the 6th, because you can’t have a 9th District in a state with only 8). Rep. Ike Skelton (D) would be left a Republican district based on his current district, but which he will continue to win handily as long as he is able to get up in the morning (his current district is already the 2nd most Republican district in the state, and he wins it easily).